hi all,

I tried to put the recent Samburu massacre to a microscope and believe me only one thing is featuring prominently...business and trade by politicians and provincial administration.

This is my take...

Scenario 1..

Baragoi is on the northern side of Samburu county, pretty close to Marsabit county border. Around this region and in the extreme east, Samburu is ethnically bordering the Rendille tribe who are not known to be violent...Far north of Rendille lands are the Oromos (bordering Ethiopia) who are known to be warlike and excellent expendable assets for the leaders. These are the same people in Tana River county referred to as the Orma...The Oromo may have entered the Samburu through the Rendille territories to pick up the cattle and return...The weapons they used are not ordinary guns but powerful arsenal which must have been purchased through the rich people in these areas (read politicians and the Provincial Administration).

Scenario 2..

On the western side of Samburu County are the Turkana and Tugen & Pokots in Baringo...The Tugens and the Pokots are found on the extreme south east region where some of the brutal cattle rustling activities have been recorded in the recent past. However, the Tugens participation in cattle rustling is very minimal so this leaves the Samburu under the mercy of Pokots here (read Sukuta Mar Mar and Sukuta Valley and Paka), but again the Pokots in Baringo are not very well armed and mostly they use the outdated guns, and it is very unlikely that these Pokots crossed over to Samburu through Turkana territories to steal cattle in Baragoi...This leaves the Turkana as the possible culprit but they have never been that aggressive to the government machinery...Turkanas could be innocent here.

Scenario 3..

West Pokot (WP)...it is not very far from Samburu as the dividing line is Baringo and Turkana...The Pokots from WP have always crossed to Keiyo, Baringo, Turkana and Western Samburu to steal cattle at precision speed and sofistication...Ask any Marakwet, Keiyos and Turkanas around WP who have born the brunt of the WP cattle rustlers...These rustlers from WP have always been known to possess very powerful and heavy weapons whose origins is north eastern Uganda and this partly explains why their cattle rustling missions are 100% successful all the time while at the same time inflicting maximum damage and casualty to the victims...Most likely they could have crossed to Samburu and on to Baragoi and attacked the pastrolists and stole their cattle. The logistics of getting to Samburu may have been well organised by a big man within the north rift region, not any ordinary fellow...

Going by what is already in the public domain, that the big men in the Rift Valley Provincial Admin. sent very inexperienced newbies security people to pursue the rustlers meaning that the whole thing was premeditated and organised. This renders the Oromos in the far north as innocent fellows...and sadly leaves the WP fellows as the guilty party.

Could these leaders tell us what they know about the Baragoi incident...

Mpigs (Kacheriba, Kapenguria and Sigor)
Provincial Administration (Rift Valley)
Provincial Security Committee (Rift Valley)
Provincial Police Boss (Rift Valley)

I may be right and again I may be wrong...What say you???

Pokots are known to have guns from UG and SS. Where did the Turkanas get that heavy artilary to outmart a whole battalion (if you allow me to borrow from the army). There is something cooking here.

Another rumour during rounds is that the Tana River, Baragoi and the many accidents are sacrifices of blood for 2013 elections. Your take?

No kabz!!! It cannot be the Turkanas. From what i know the Turkanas have always been in the receiving end from the cattle ruslers...it climaxed when almost an entire village was wiped out (38 killed and many others injured) in one single morning cattle rustling attack somewhere near the Turkana/west Pokot border a couple of years back...

The Turkanas still do not have any mordern weaponly except, of course, the primeval guns. The Turkanas are modest fellows who always want to mind their own business but the aggression meted to them from melile (north) and pokot south makes them too vulnerable and weak as our government does not allow any form of "unlicensed arming"...

By the way kabz, the Turkana women are the ones who guard the homesteads and the villages, not the men.

Pokot rarely fire at kenyan security personnel, lakini wao ni dawa ya UPDF hehe. ... In fact, common intelligence has it that they well understand severe govt reaction n act cleverly. They don't even bother with govt weapons, but rustling they will.

Ask a pokot, he will tell you the turus are now finished for being stupid.

So it's the Turukanas to face the wrath of KDF...

I just found the story of the helicopter that was shot down in the suguta valley. The plane included the then DC Ismael Chelang'a in 1996 and were following Pokot cattle rustlers.

With that Turkana community leader confessing to have the know how of the attack, i still insist that Chiefs and Assistant Chiefs in the neighbouring Turkana County must be GRILLED to reveal everything, since they are usually the No. 1 CRIMINALS!

And why is Ruto running his mouth about KDF not being needed there? He wants more young police recriuts to be taken there so that they can be mowed down again?

You clearly haven't heard about Ngorokos before. They are much more lethal than Pokots and dreaded.

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What about the nitty gritty of how the operation was conducted? Think about it when you have poor planning and execution of the strategy, complete lack of intelligence on the cattle rustlers and the geography of the area. The police hoped the strategy of intimidation would provide them with an advantage where the raiders would fear the police coupled with poor leadership.
The attackers had tactical advantage allowed that allowed then to maneuver easily, identify enemy lines, launch effective attacks, besides cut-off the enemy from resupply and reinforcements.