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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up.. They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time. Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads. KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover. @VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2010 Posts: 511 Location: kandara, Murang'a
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mlennyma wrote:My bet is that safcom will be flat or in loss territory next financial year,it now looks rossy because we are comparing with last years worst ever perfomance...above 5.50 is a sell to me. Even last yrs results were not a loss, what would bring the H2 loss, Decline you meant? Foresight..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up.. They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time. Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads. KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover. @VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre? Yes they had an issue with JTL, they were involved with competitors "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up.. They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time. Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads. KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover. @VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre? 500 kms of fiber READY-TO-GO. Of course, Safcom could rent from AK as well since the capacity probably exceeds the usage. Note that "Nairobi" remains the dominant user of data & most of AK's "metro fiber" is in Nairobi. I am not sure how AK connects from Mombasa (where the undersea cables land) to Nairobi. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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@sparkly - It's mostly about Nairobi & Mombasa for Access Kenya. http://www.reuters.com/a...nt-idUSL5E8MCBQR20121112Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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EABL has taken back the mantle in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer. ...with scom shedding off some gain wont the index follow it that way? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@maka Don't look at the index look at your money Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Back in Nov 2009 after Scom had mounted a rally from 2.60 it stalled at 4.70. BD later had a headline that read Scom rally fails to clitch IPO price. Then in Jan 2010, the rally launch from 4.50 to 5.30 then by Jun & Aug 2010, 6/- printed. Profit taking, then rally until the bull dies... Patience. Btw @4.80 Scom was 70% up for 2012... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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mlennyma wrote:Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer. Volumes suggest wanjikus panic or profit taking. Most of the trades are below 10,000 shares. So far. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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dunkang wrote:mlennyma wrote:Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer. Volumes suggest wanjikus panic or profit taking. Most of the trades are below 10,000 shares. So far. It's not panic. Hit target and run! After all, a bird in hand.... Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Wow! The share price is technically overheated  Notice that since 2009, 4.70 - 4.80 zone acts as resistance everytime it is approached and stalling (selling - profit taking) happens.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The MTR discussion - https://www.youtube.com/...ykQm7M&feature=plcp
From this video, I don't think call rates are coming down anytime soon. Listen to Orange KE MD and the CCK director. Anti-dumping strategy - prevent the option of selling under cost to undercut other competitors... Does MTR cuts affect quality of service - poses the CCK director. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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received Safaricom dividend today. nice suprise. they had earlier mentioned pay out is in Dec 2012. anyone else whose got their 22 cents today?
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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obiero wrote:received Safaricom dividend today. nice suprise. they had earlier mentioned pay out is in Dec 2012. anyone else whose got their 22 cents today? Interesting. I thought the dday was Dec 11th 2012. Will check to see if the EFT is effected by dday. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Vodafone reports biggest ever losses - http://www.dailymail.co....rts-biggest-losses.html
Whoa! Seems the parent has ingested too much crap from its Spanish and Italian associates. Quote:Telecoms giant Vodafone today reported pre-tax losses of £13.5 billion - equating to £37 million a day - but shares in the group surged after figures came in at the top end of expectations.
The group wrote off some £6 billion after seeing the value of some investments fall, which together with other charges adding up to a total of nearly £20 billion, plunged it into loss.
However the £6 billion write-down was less than £8 billion - £20 billion the City was expecting.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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EFT from MPESA pap Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/10/2009 Posts: 52
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obiero wrote:received Safaricom dividend today. nice suprise. they had earlier mentioned pay out is in Dec 2012. anyone else whose got their 22 cents today? received mine too
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:Back in Nov 2009 after Scom had mounted a rally from 2.60 it stalled at 4.70. BD later had a headline that read Scom rally fails to clitch IPO price. Then in Jan 2010, the rally launch from 4.50 to 5.30 then by Jun & Aug 2010, 6/- printed.
Profit taking, then rally until the bull dies... Patience.
Btw @4.80 Scom was 70% up for 2012... Patience till? 8/- maybe?
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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
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