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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
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sparkly
#61 Posted : Monday, November 12, 2012 10:59:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20.

@thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa.
@hisah the growth will come from cost reduction.

That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up..


They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time.
Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads.

KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover.


@VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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gatoho
#62 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 3:18:43 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
mlennyma wrote:
My bet is that safcom will be flat or in loss territory next financial year,it now looks rossy because we are comparing with last years worst ever perfomance...above 5.50 is a sell to me.


Even last yrs results were not a loss, what would bring the H2 loss, Decline you meant?
Foresight..
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murchr
#63 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 4:11:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20.

@thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa.
@hisah the growth will come from cost reduction.

That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up..


They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time.
Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads.

KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover.


@VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre?


Yes they had an issue with JTL, they were involved with competitors
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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VituVingiSana
#64 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 9:27:21 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20.

@thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa.
@hisah the growth will come from cost reduction.

That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up..


They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time.
Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads.

KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover.


@VVS i had heard of the issues with JTL? would it make sense for Safcom to buy AK who only have 500km of fibre?
500 kms of fiber READY-TO-GO. Of course, Safcom could rent from AK as well since the capacity probably exceeds the usage. Note that "Nairobi" remains the dominant user of data & most of AK's "metro fiber" is in Nairobi.

I am not sure how AK connects from Mombasa (where the undersea cables land) to Nairobi.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mlennyma
#65 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 9:59:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 10:03:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
@sparkly - It's mostly about Nairobi & Mombasa for Access Kenya.

http://www.reuters.com/a...nt-idUSL5E8MCBQR20121112
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#67 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 10:27:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,809
Location: NAIROBI
EABL has taken back the mantle in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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maka
#68 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 10:36:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Meanwhile excitement is over and the guy who said 5bob is a must might wait a little longer.

...with scom shedding off some gain wont the index follow it that way?
possunt quia posse videntur
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Ericsson
#69 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 10:59:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,809
Location: NAIROBI
@maka Don't look at the index look at your money
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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hisah
#70 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 11:52:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Back in Nov 2009 after Scom had mounted a rally from 2.60 it stalled at 4.70. BD later had a headline that read Scom rally fails to clitch IPO price. Then in Jan 2010, the rally launch from 4.50 to 5.30 then by Jun & Aug 2010, 6/- printed.

Profit taking, then rally until the bull dies... Patience.

Btw @4.80 Scom was 70% up for 2012...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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