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CBK MPC Meet!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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guru267 wrote:guru267 wrote:I see a 200-250bps cut! 200bps pap!  I expected a single figure!  Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/8/2008 Posts: 288
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:CBR lowered to 11%, tbill 91day last auction - 10.24%, NSE20 above 4100pts, USDKES steady at 85s, latest inflation @4.14% CBR and inflation - downwards, tbills upwards, NSE bullish, USDKES steady, GoK C/A still wide. Very mixed signals. Money markets up, equities up - I guess this is a KE trend, very peculiar  @hisah do U see the U.S 'fiscal cliff' giving us a break on the C/A as far as oil is concerned? From the MPC statement oil/fuel prices appear the remaining thorn in the inflation flesh. Am hoping commercial banks will reduce their interest rates asap
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:Buy banks and insurance! It doesn't get any simpler than that.. @guru, why insurance?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/15/2010 Posts: 99 Location: nairobi
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Banks have been very mum on this development... seems they don't want to lower the lending rates to protect their Q4 interest income.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/8/2009 Posts: 975 Location: Nairobi
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smallfama wrote:Banks have been very mum on this development... seems they don't want to lower the lending rates to protect their Q4 interest income. Atleast someone on the same line of thought like me! The interest rates need to come down like yesterday!! I am suffering...... You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:Buy banks and insurance! It doesn't get any simpler than that.. @guru, why insurance? I also agree with buying banks. They always seem to win the war on lending rates and it is obvious most people can't do without debts. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Jitahidi wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:CBR lowered to 11%, tbill 91day last auction - 10.24%, NSE20 above 4100pts, USDKES steady at 85s, latest inflation @4.14% CBR and inflation - downwards, tbills upwards, NSE bullish, USDKES steady, GoK C/A still wide. Very mixed signals. Money markets up, equities up - I guess this is a KE trend, very peculiar @hisah do U see the U.S 'fiscal cliff' giving us a break on the C/A as far as oil is concerned? From the MPC statement oil/fuel prices appear the remaining thorn in the inflation flesh. Am hoping commercial banks will reduce their interest rates asap ^ ASAP is probably 1st of Jan. Hang in there!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:Buy banks and insurance! It doesn't get any simpler than that.. @guru, why insurance? Both equities and bonds do well during the period of a declining CBR... This has been very evident in 2012! One of The biggest holders of bonds and equities are insurance companies! for example in 2012 Kenya re has made a whopping 400million in capital gains from their 1% holding in KCB! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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smallfama wrote:Banks have been very mum on this development... seems they don't want to lower the lending rates to protect their Q4 interest income. The lending rates will most likely fall to 17% by next week! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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With the next CBR review in Jan & with the rains staying their cause, I see the NSE closing the year at post 4,000 points!  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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This is a BIG one; Citibank lowers base lending rate to 15pchttp://www.businessdailyafrica....16/-/dedu3s/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Citi is kinda mocking the timid MPC. I like
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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This MPC is behind the curve this time round. >>> Reading good news on stable and low inflation >>> Fuel prices reduce marginally in November review http://www.businessdailyafrica....04/-/i3k7tw/-/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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But this bank never lends to @wanjiku.  Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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USDKES - I don't like what I'm seeing. 86 - 87 is on the card this Dec... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:USDKES - I don't like what I'm seeing. 86 - 87 is on the card this Dec... no need for alarm because i think It is a reasonable move considering the CBR has been lowered 700bps in 2012! Exporters also need some relief... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Trade deficit plus money supply, I'm still skeptical how inflation will be held sub 5% through 2013.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:I'm still skeptical how inflation will be held sub 5% through 2013. @hisah it is no ones intention to keep inflation below 5%... Actually we are way below the CBKs target of 9%! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Trade deficit plus money supply, I'm still skeptical how inflation will be held sub 5% through 2013. Money supply is checked. M3 curve this year is not as steep as that seen last year M3 Statistics 'Kshs Billions' Jan 2011; 1,285 Oct 2011; 1,514 Growth; 17.8% Jan 2012; 1,506 Oct 2012; 1,703 Growth; 13.1% See the graph here (page 9) http://www.knbs.or.ke/news/lei102012.pdfAnd the economy is looking up >> Treasury projects 5.1pc growth in GDP by year end
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