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Defensive Play In Stocks Investment
streetwise
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 12:19:37 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.
young
#12 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 2:36:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
kaifastus wrote:
young wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
KQ (transport), Mumias (Agriculture)Sad

I buy and sell once target is attained. I'll let my money sit if I have nothing better to do with it ie Acquisition of Real estate. If its dividends I want, my SACCOs do that for me.


Please trade with caution as they are very unpredictable. I pray you do not erode your previous gains!


I see no problem in mukiris strategy of selling once target has been attained. Young looking at your portfolio,i see counters which have done well recently as well as those that have not. Now please tell me have you maintained, grown,or incurred losses from the principle amount you started with in 2004. There has been periods of boom,and bears in the stock market...




For a long termer, entry price is still very important. Be aware this was a gradual process.
You must do the mathematics to estimate the fair value before you buy.
For example I could not have bought HFC at 32
, I bought it for the first time this year at 14.80. So you buy at different intervals to even out, if it is expensive you wait or buy something else that have high dividend yield.

I also introduced Kengen just this year by offloading my SCB to avoid overexposure to financial stocks, as my fingers are grossed as far as financial stocks are concerned no matter the returns and the traded volume. I bought Kengen at 8.90 bob, you are aware some years past Kengen was circa 20 bob.
If you buy any one at a high price you can equally wait and buy at lower price at a later date if the company is still promising or sell off to cut further loss if the fundamentals of the company are no longer promising.

I missed buying Safcom more at below 3.00 because I was not convinced and did not trust the company to have more exposure. I bought most of them at 5 bob, and it is gradually getting to my cost price, but I have received consistent dividends in the past 3 years.

The bottom line is while waiting for your stock to even out, obtain a good dividend as a
little compensation rather than lose out entirely.

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#13 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 4:42:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
streetwise wrote:
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.


Difficult to tell. That is the risk factor in stock investment. Why not balance stock investment with other others for a leverage ?
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Gatheuzi
#14 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 7:45:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
young wrote:
streetwise wrote:
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.


Difficult to tell. That is the risk factor in stock investment. Why not balance stock investment with other others for a leverage ?


Stocks will generally outdo inflation in both nominal and real terms. What I often do is carry out an annual analysis of my every stock holding (never more than three at any given time). If say I have made 42% profit I know I am ok, but if it is like -15% then I know I am making losses.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
young
#15 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 9:20:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Gatheuzi wrote
Stocks will generally outdo inflation in both nominal and real terms. What I often do is carry out an annual analysis of my every stock holding (never more than three at any given time). If say I have made 42% profit I know I am ok, but if it is like -15% then I know I am making losses.



In 2009, 2010 and up to Oct 2011, NSE stocks did not outdo inflation, so sometimes with all accurate estimates using fundamentals, your portfolio is in the red, the growth is even negative not to talk of matching up with inflation. There are some factors that is not imagined, that might make stocks to drop. Talk of goverment policy, talk of insecurity, talk of trade disputes in the company you invest in or even weather.In this situation there is no fundamental problem with the company itself but the problem is with the operating environment


In addition internally the companies you invest in can return less than expected result
beyond expectation of previous performance, talk of HFC Q3, talk of Kenol, or even KQ?
or even Equity Q3.

You either sale off to cut loss or hold to the stocks with fingers crossed that it will recover. .

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Aguytrying
#16 Posted : Thursday, November 08, 2012 11:03:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@ young. you are among the wisest investors in wazua. i would only tweek your criteria to include

buying stocks at p/e less than 10. healthy earnings growt. below price to book or 1.2 limit. moderate to little debt. and good management.
from here all is needed is patience and alertness to the challenges of the markets.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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