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Defensive Play In Stocks Investment
young
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:15:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
There is a general saying that if you take position in more than 5 counters in any market, then you do not know what you are doing.

This very true if you want to be an excellent investor. I have given up being one, I rather want to be good investor to make moderate risk and also make moderate gains. That explains why I leverage on real estate.

Good Side Of Excellent Returns
Imagine someone that invested fully on KCB when it was 18 bob it is now circa 30 bob.
This is also applicable to NMG, EABL, Safcom etc

Bad Side
Imagine someone that invested fully in Kenol looking without being aware of the buy out plan.
HF (Housing Finance) Q3 result was not also spectacular

Moderate
In NSE I split my portfolio across 10 - 12 counters spread over all sectors except agricultural.
The different stocks are like my matatus in Kenya realm that bring periodic returns(annually
and mostly bi annually)
That means if one counter "misbehaves" , 90% of my portfolio is intact. It is not an excellent style but I believe it is a good one.
In addition as income is my investment goal, spreading to money counters enable me to have income spread over different times of the year (Interim and finals). That makes my bank account active of dividend incomes by EFT.
I believe everybody can choose or device a
suitable strategy, but what is very important is
sustenability that have an enduring strategy.
It also depends on your age, risk apetite and how smart you are to cut losses where necessary or take profits (if you are speculating on a few stocks).
For me, no counter can hold me into ransom by affecting my portfolio negatively if things go wrong that was not forseen.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
S.Mutaga III
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:39:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Only two factors determine how many counters I will invest in:
1 ) The presence of a good buying opprtunity when the price is low. If after careful analysis of a company, I discover that it is a good buy at the current price,I will buy without thinking of how many other counters I own.
2 ) Availability of cash to invest. If an opportunity presents itself but I do not have any cash to buy. I let it pass.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
itz
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:31:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
@Young. yes good thoughts on diversification.Any smart investor will tell you it is the only way to stay in the game for many many years.Those who speculate or depend on one or two could make money but when you get blown off when things go south it sets you back big time and could take you out of the game.good advice young
young
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:46:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
My defensive portfolio build from 2004 (past 8 years) in your NSE consists of slices of

EABL
BAMBURI
KENGEN
KCB
BBK
NMG
BOC
HFC
SAFCOM
JUBILEE
KPLC

Currently my dividend income is in six digits kenya shillings per year which periodically comes by EFT to my kenyan bank account.

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:46:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
young wrote:
My defensive portfolio build from 2004 (past 8 years) in your NSE consists of slices of

EABL
BAMBURI
KENGEN
KCB
BBK
NMG
BOC
HFC
SAFCOM
JUBILEE
KPLC

Currently my dividend income is in six digits kenya shillings per year which periodically comes by EFT to my kenyan bank account.



Diversification is the only way of securing your investment, i fully agree.
why do you not invest in agriculturals?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
streetwise
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:08:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
myself I avoid transport industry as well as agriculture.
young
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:24:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

Stockswise I had better options than Agric.
I could not understand agric stocks but I know they are :-


- Vulnerable to unpredictable weather
- Lowly traded volumes
- Miserly, rarely give bonus or do splits
- Scanty company news
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Mukiri
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 7:03:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
KQ (transport), Mumias (Agriculture)Sad

I buy and sell once target is attained. I'll let my money sit if I have nothing better to do with it ie Acquisition of Real estate. If its dividends I want, my SACCOs do that for me.

Proverbs 19:21
young
#9 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 10:46:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Mukiri wrote:
KQ (transport), Mumias (Agriculture)Sad

I buy and sell once target is attained. I'll let my money sit if I have nothing better to do with it ie Acquisition of Real estate. If its dividends I want, my SACCOs do that for me.


Please trade with caution as they are very unpredictable. I pray you do not erode your previous gains!
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
kaifastus
#10 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 11:46:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
young wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
KQ (transport), Mumias (Agriculture)Sad

I buy and sell once target is attained. I'll let my money sit if I have nothing better to do with it ie Acquisition of Real estate. If its dividends I want, my SACCOs do that for me.


Please trade with caution as they are very unpredictable. I pray you do not erode your previous gains!


I see no problem in mukiris strategy of selling once target has been attained. Young looking at your portfolio,i see counters which have done well recently as well as those that have not. Now please tell me have you maintained, grown,or incurred losses from the principle amount you started with in 2004. There has been periods of boom,and bears in the stock market...

streetwise
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 12:19:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.
young
#12 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 2:36:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
kaifastus wrote:
young wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
KQ (transport), Mumias (Agriculture)Sad

I buy and sell once target is attained. I'll let my money sit if I have nothing better to do with it ie Acquisition of Real estate. If its dividends I want, my SACCOs do that for me.


Please trade with caution as they are very unpredictable. I pray you do not erode your previous gains!


I see no problem in mukiris strategy of selling once target has been attained. Young looking at your portfolio,i see counters which have done well recently as well as those that have not. Now please tell me have you maintained, grown,or incurred losses from the principle amount you started with in 2004. There has been periods of boom,and bears in the stock market...




For a long termer, entry price is still very important. Be aware this was a gradual process.
You must do the mathematics to estimate the fair value before you buy.
For example I could not have bought HFC at 32
, I bought it for the first time this year at 14.80. So you buy at different intervals to even out, if it is expensive you wait or buy something else that have high dividend yield.

I also introduced Kengen just this year by offloading my SCB to avoid overexposure to financial stocks, as my fingers are grossed as far as financial stocks are concerned no matter the returns and the traded volume. I bought Kengen at 8.90 bob, you are aware some years past Kengen was circa 20 bob.
If you buy any one at a high price you can equally wait and buy at lower price at a later date if the company is still promising or sell off to cut further loss if the fundamentals of the company are no longer promising.

I missed buying Safcom more at below 3.00 because I was not convinced and did not trust the company to have more exposure. I bought most of them at 5 bob, and it is gradually getting to my cost price, but I have received consistent dividends in the past 3 years.

The bottom line is while waiting for your stock to even out, obtain a good dividend as a
little compensation rather than lose out entirely.

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#13 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 4:42:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
streetwise wrote:
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.


Difficult to tell. That is the risk factor in stock investment. Why not balance stock investment with other others for a leverage ?
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Gatheuzi
#14 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 7:45:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
young wrote:
streetwise wrote:
Although one may have made a gain how do you factor in the future value of money in calclating the gain to ensure you do not actually end up with much less value even when the amounts are more than amounts you initially invested.


Difficult to tell. That is the risk factor in stock investment. Why not balance stock investment with other others for a leverage ?


Stocks will generally outdo inflation in both nominal and real terms. What I often do is carry out an annual analysis of my every stock holding (never more than three at any given time). If say I have made 42% profit I know I am ok, but if it is like -15% then I know I am making losses.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
young
#15 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2012 9:20:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Gatheuzi wrote
Stocks will generally outdo inflation in both nominal and real terms. What I often do is carry out an annual analysis of my every stock holding (never more than three at any given time). If say I have made 42% profit I know I am ok, but if it is like -15% then I know I am making losses.



In 2009, 2010 and up to Oct 2011, NSE stocks did not outdo inflation, so sometimes with all accurate estimates using fundamentals, your portfolio is in the red, the growth is even negative not to talk of matching up with inflation. There are some factors that is not imagined, that might make stocks to drop. Talk of goverment policy, talk of insecurity, talk of trade disputes in the company you invest in or even weather.In this situation there is no fundamental problem with the company itself but the problem is with the operating environment


In addition internally the companies you invest in can return less than expected result
beyond expectation of previous performance, talk of HFC Q3, talk of Kenol, or even KQ?
or even Equity Q3.

You either sale off to cut loss or hold to the stocks with fingers crossed that it will recover. .

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Aguytrying
#16 Posted : Thursday, November 08, 2012 11:03:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@ young. you are among the wisest investors in wazua. i would only tweek your criteria to include

buying stocks at p/e less than 10. healthy earnings growt. below price to book or 1.2 limit. moderate to little debt. and good management.
from here all is needed is patience and alertness to the challenges of the markets.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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