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hisah		#291 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 3:32:24 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		More banks lower lending rates... www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/105ekah/-/index.html $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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maligumu		#292 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 10:04:16 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 2/22/2010 Posts: 510 Location: De egg		Received this message today . We have reduced our intrest rates to 18 % for more details call Ab** ..... S*** . Don't know it was from which bank . Peace be with you
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hisah		#293 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 3:19:02 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Watching closely USDKES. Likely to test 85.40 then 86.40 in coming weeks... Not liking this pattern at all considering oil prices have rebounded sharply since July. Inflation effects... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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guru267		#294 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 9:15:09 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		hisah wrote: Watching closely USDKES. Likely to test 85.40 then 86.40 in coming weeks... Not liking this pattern at all considering oil prices have rebounded sharply since July. Inflation effects... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji		#295 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 5:21:36 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		September inflation slowed to 5.32% while 2Q12 GDP figures showed a growth of 3.3%, the slowest quarterly growth since 4Q of 2009. The combination of these numbers could point to a strong likelihood of a further benchmark rate cut in coming months in order to boost growth. (sib - i concur)
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mwekez@ji		#296 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 6:02:30 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		mwekez@ji wrote: September inflation slowed to 5.32% while 2Q12 GDP figures showed a growth of 3.3%, the slowest quarterly growth since 4Q of 2009. The combination of these numbers could point to a strong likelihood of a further benchmark rate cut in coming months in order to boost growth. (sib - i concur) Seconded http://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8KS79K20120928
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hisah		#297 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 6:12:29 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		@mwekez@ji - Most likely further CBR rate cut is on the cards due to that dismal GDP performance - the econ is squeaking badly from lack of liquidity. Makes me wonder how IMF expects a GDP growth of 5% this year! However with QE inifiniti now a reality from both euroland and USD motherships, CBK has to be careful with CBR rate cuts. The KES is still very fragile and it can be smashed yet again like last year if they mishandle the liquidity flooding of KES vs the hot money flood in euros and USD. Already within a week of my prediction that USDKES would test 85.40, the target has been hit! How long can CBK manage KES weakness using repos? Commodities esp oil and food inflation are a major thorn going forward and need to be monitored carefully with euro/USD tsunami on the loose... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji		#298 Posted : Wednesday, October 31, 2012 8:15:11 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cuts http://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031 "The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst.
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hisah		#299 Posted : Thursday, November 01, 2012 4:23:13 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		mwekez@ji wrote: MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cuts http://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031 "The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst. That spread between CBR and inflation must be iching the CBR cut trigger. But the repo action is what stands in the way. Another huge cut (at least 300bps) is on the cards, but the balancing between repos and USDKES rate stabilization is a tricky path. CBK will be sweating here... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa		#300 Posted : Thursday, November 01, 2012 5:13:11 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		hisah wrote: mwekez@ji wrote: MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cuts http://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031 "The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst. That spread between CBR and inflation must be iching the CBR cut trigger. But the repo action is what stands in the way. Another huge cut (at least 300bps) is on the cards, but the balancing between repos and USDKES rate stabilization is a tricky path. CBK will be sweating here... Probably GoK/CBK has pre-empted the likely USD/KES scenario in event of a deep cut with that USD110 from IMF.
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