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Facebook IPO
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Twitter IPO: How CFO is learning lessons from Facebook debacle - http://bit.ly/T2teYt
Next on the IPO train is Twitter... The next suckers are being lined up since wanjikus never learn... Goodluck $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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'Excellent'... Facebook Fought SEC to Keep Mobile Risks Hidden Before IPO - http://bloom.bg/SQBVEk Quote:Only eight days before the IPO, on May 9, did Facebook make clear in a filing that that daily mobile customers were increasing faster than advertising growth, potentially hurting revenue and profits. It was the strongest public signal that the IPO could fall short of its high expectations. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Just a reminder - http://read.bi/TeLnSO
FB lock up (insider) releases coming up on Oct 14th - 249M shares. Then on Nov 13th 1.332B shares become available for sale. This shares flood will crash the share price sub $15... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Nabwire wrote:FB makes economic sense, but only if the model works. Now this is what i call blind investing!! @Nabwire are you saying that it doesn't matter how much you pay for a good business?? For FB to have a P/E of 15 at current prices like Apple inc. and the rest of the NYSE the profits have to triple.. With the way things are going it could take 5years to triple earnings.. Meaning its only in 2017 when fair value for FB will be $20!! If you buy now get ready to wait 5years just to break even!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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You do know there is a difference between the price of a stock and the value of the company! The beauty of this game is that no one knows with certainty what the future holds, so whether you call it blind investing or not, not even you know what the future holds for FB. If their model of selling directly to users works, their profits could more than double, I love how you speak with such certainty, one would think you are the CFO of FB. How someone can say with such certainty that FB will be at $20 in 2017 is amazing, thankfully your opinion doesnt determine my investment decisions.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Nabwire wrote:You do know there is a difference between the price of a stock and the value of the company! The beauty of this game is that no one knows with certainty what the future holds, so whether you call it blind investing or not, not even you know what the future holds for FB. If their model of selling directly to users works, their profits could more than double, I love how you speak with such certainty, one would think you are the CFO of FB. How someone can say with such certainty that FB will be at $20 in 2017 is amazing, thankfully your opinion doesnt determine my investment decisions. There are various tools and models that one can use to predict the future with relative certainty... Like it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out if you buy any stock that is NOT growing more than 100% p.a at a P/E of 45 you will be in serious tears 5years down the line as you reel in losses! A P/E of 45 for a company with negative growth leaves a serious sour taste in my & many investors mouths! Do not overpay for a company no matter how much it impacts your life or how much you love the business! It has happened before and it will happen again! (Many NASDAQ stocks are still below where they were in 1999 precisely due to this problem) That is 13years of losses bruv! What will exempt FB from the same fate??Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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I hate it when people try to shove down their "knowledge" down your throat, ati tools to predict the future with relative certainty.... go sit down somewhere for real!!! So with your tools, how come you are not on Forbes Billionaires list making Buffett break into a cold sweat??? No one can predict the market much less predict the direction a company will take. Go give your advise to someone else, its my money I can buy FB if I want, utado?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Nabwire wrote:No one can predict the market much less predict the direction a company will take. Go give your advise to someone else, its my money I can buy FB if I want, utado? Boss why are you so confrontational?? I am not predicting the market.. I am predicting earnings, revenue growth & the value of the company.. (mostly using statistical measures) Then the market will do the rest! I am merely pointing out that IMHO (as is my UNCHR given right) FB is overvalued just likey the NASDAQ was in 1999 & is unlikely to fulfil promises of exponential growth just like in 1999.. since when is advice equal to a gun to your head? Your decision to flush your money down the toilet or not is yours alone and does not affect me in anyway! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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No need of calling me boss or bruv or any other adjective, Nabwire will do just fine.
Gimme a break, now all of a sudden your opinion is humble?? Telling someone their opinion is blind investing is not humble, thats a passive aggressive way of calling someone ignorant, same thing with saying its not rocket science bla bla bla. So go ahead and predict the market, my bad earnings, amazing!!!! You need to get over yourself, I noticed you like to attack people, too bad I dont play mind games. Oh and next time, just so we are clear, I dont like unsolicited advice, sweetheart!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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I would listen to guru if I were you...however abrasive and direct guru puts across her/his ideas s/he means well.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Nabwire wrote:Oh and next time, just so we are clear, I dont like unsolicited advice, sweetheart! The "advice" is directed mostly at those who might read your posts and decide to place a purchase order for FB! If it is my opinion that you are investing in FB blindly why are you offended?? where does it say that my opinion is the truth?? Only The future will tell!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Wow! Ladies (guru, nabwire) please don't burn down this thread. Kool info from both of you  On Oct 5th wallstreet had hammered Zynga below its book value. Mr. Market can be absolutely irrational and after FB debuted on a slippery road with a lot of secret IPO info popping, Mr. Market will be ruthless on the sellside. Until those sentiments change, FB will continue taking it in the chin till earnings look rosy & sustainable. Also the insider share sales coming up in Oct & Nov are large volume which will depress the share value further. IMHO until FB finds a way to monetize mobile user traffic (majority of its users access), it doesn't stand a chance to be a rosy investment. http://www.latimes.com/e...20121005,0,5240403.story$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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kaifastus wrote:I would listen to guru if I were you...however abrasive and direct guru puts across her/his ideas s/he means well. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Its one thing to give advice, its another thing to go around as if you are some sort of Peter Lynch, if you have a superiority complex Im sorry I'm not going to deify you especially with no track record. Even Wanjiku was smart enough not to sell KK, it amazes me how someone can think they know how a stock will perform 5 years out, there are too many variables to consider. Like I said before, use your tools that predict earnings or whatever to get you on Forbes Billionaires list then I will notice you, until then you are just another mere mortal to me, reserve your advise for your sheeple.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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@Nabwire...ni kawaida ya guru usijali...they know a lot but they keep rubbing it in your face as if you know nothing...and the rudeness...just calm down and understand some people... A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Facebook rallies, Netflix hit after hours - http://articles.marketwa...1_netflix-share-low-end
Quote:Facebook (US:FB) shares were up 13% at $22.14 as the company reported a 36% rise in third-quarter advertising revenue. The gain was “much better than what the Street had expected,” according to Susquehanna analyst Herman Leung. Revenue from advertising made up 86% of Facebook’s total sales. After all the revenue hype calmed down the share price was up a measly 1%. I still expect this share to close sub $19 by end of 2012. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Aii Hisah, its up 20% for the day and you still call that measly? http://finance.yahoo.com...ds-sterne-141759713.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I meant Tues trading. Wed trading it rallied 19% with some analysts (BoA, Citi etc) upgrading it to a buy rating.
At yesterday's close of $23.23 the P/E is 45. The profit is still flat for the qtr. Also note that in Nov a huge block of insider lockup shares will be released.
If it bounces to $30 before the insider shares release, I'll be on the sellside.
http://online.wsj.com/ar...578076463090723792.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Did you read the article or atleast the headline? Mobile ads are making it money, I thought that was your biggest reservation withFB. Anyways here's to hoping it tanks after insider lockup expires, so we can get that out of the way, it will be a good case study going forth.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Nabwire wrote:Did you read the article or atleast the headline? Mobile ads are making it money, I thought that was your biggest reservation withFB. Anyways here's to hoping it tanks after insider lockup expires, so we can get that out of the way, it will be a good case study going forth. Yes, that's why I posted it. Not impressed. If you fish out where the revenues are coming from vs their user base, nothing to write home about. The share price & future earnings are too optimistic for reality.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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