When was that dyer & blair report done and what is their Target Price. Below is what SIB has said today:
ARM’s 9month profit before tax and unrealized losses up 18.1%y/y; group revenue up 28.9%y/y. ARM Cement Limited (formerly Athi River Mining Limited) released 9month performance figures (period ended 30 September) marking 28.9%y/y growth in revenue and EPS of KES 8.34 (excluding unrealized foreign currency movements, EPS was up 18.1%y/y). On q/q basis, revenue was up 14.3% while PBT before forex movement declined 3.4%). EBITDA margin slipped to 24.1% from 26.3%. Overall, against our FY12 full year estimates, reported figures came in below expectation. On top line, our FY12 revenue excluding sales from the new Tanzania plant stands at KES 10.9bn, implying 17%q/q growth in 4Q12 (while we are comfortable with our FY12 Kenyan cement sales forecast of KES 8.1bn, we are inclined to cut our non-cement revenue estimates - borrowing from the 34%q/q drop in 2Q12). On Tanzania cement sales, ARM confirmed operations at the Dar es salaam 0.75mtpa grinding plant commenced in October. Based on guidance from management, our full year FY12 forecast included Tanzania sales starting July 2012. We had assumed total revenue of KES 2.2bn from volume sales of 0.2mtpa (this we are also inclined to cut). On margins we remain comfortable with our FY12 EBITDA margin estimate of 24.4%. Though we are on-course to revise our FY12 EPS estimate of KES 16.39 downward (on adjusted revenue estimates and increased borrowing costs) in our view ARM’s overall outlook remains positive. Based on our un-adjusted FY12 forecast figures, ARM currently trades at 10.9x EBITDA margin versus Bamburi’s 5x (FY12F). The current market price of KES 225 is 13.6% above our un-adjusted fair value of KES 194.42. (Company filling, Standard Investment Bank).