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Poor Performance from Nairobi Securites Exchange, it Sucks!!!!
Afroblk
#1 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 5:10:47 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 79
I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts. I just wanted to highlight some stocks that have really frustrated me, i even forgot about them. I can never sell at a loss, and will hold them for as long as i can.

Bamburi bought @ 170 sometime in march 2010
Housing Finance bought @ 18 march 2010
EAPC @ 85
Kengen @ 15
BOC @ 160

While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit.

BAT @190 now 450
Equity @15 now 23
Carbacid @ 100 now 122
Scangroup @ 45 now 58

NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
murchr
#2 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 8:15:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Afroblk wrote:
I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts. I just wanted to highlight some stocks that have really frustrated me, i even forgot about them. I can never sell at a loss, and will hold them for as long as i can.

Bamburi bought @ 170 sometime in march 2010
Housing Finance bought @ 18 march 2010
EAPC @ 85
Kengen @ 15
BOC @ 160

While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit.

BAT @190 now 450
Equity @15 now 23
Carbacid @ 100 now 122
Scangroup @ 45 now 58

NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.



d'oh! really?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
dunkang
#3 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 9:29:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
murchr wrote:
Afroblk wrote:
NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.

really?


i agree that NSE has been frustrating for some stocks if u entered/bought them before june 2011. If i were u, i would sell BAT and buy HFCK and Kengen.
For me EACL have frustrated me and am just waiting to break even and quit.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

maka
#4 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 11:54:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
It has seen mixed results anyway you cant say it has generally performed poorly...I still have KPLC bought @ 20 mid last year,CFC @ 56,Total @ 26,Equity @ 29 and co-op @ 20.50....am not crying foul coz on the other hand I also have KCB @ 17,Scom @ 2.80,mumias @ 4.80,sasini @ 10.20...I think you just need to be regular with your buying plus also looking at the overall market sentiments...
possunt quia posse videntur
kenmac
#5 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 5:09:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
First, you have too many counters which is a pointer that maybe you are just speculating. One rule of WB is that diversification is for those who do not know what they are doing. start afresh
......Ecclesiastes
Jamani
#6 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 7:23:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Afroblk wrote:
I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts.

NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.


if it will be affected by the elections next year?
Yes it will..with or without violence..
S.Mutaga III
#7 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 8:33:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Afroblk wrote:
I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts. I just wanted to highlight some stocks that have really frustrated me, i even forgot about them. I can never sell at a loss, and will hold them for as long as i can.

Bamburi bought @ 170 sometime in march 2010
Housing Finance bought @ 18 march 2010
EAPC @ 85
Kengen @ 15
BOC @ 160

While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit.

BAT @190 now 450
Equity @15 now 23
Carbacid @ 100 now 122
Scangroup @ 45 now 58

NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.

I dont think anyone should blame the stock market...some counters gained even during the bear market...it depends on you!
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
youcan'tstopusnow
#8 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 9:09:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
You win some, you lose some
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Jamani
#9 Posted : Sunday, October 14, 2012 9:13:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Stock exchange is not for the faint hearted.
Afroblk
#10 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 6:49:52 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 79
kenmac wrote:
First, you have too many counters which is a pointer that maybe you are just speculating. One rule of WB is that diversification is for those who do not know what they are doing. start afresh



First of all, don't we all speculate at some point? even Warren Buffet admitted speculating at some point. Second, diversification is the one thing financial advisers always preach. What if i hadn't diversified my portfolio? I could have lost a fortune.
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
mwekez@ji
#11 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 8:20:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
You win some, you lose some


Indeed. Net return is what matters most. .... And @Afroblk need to set Target Price/Profit taking levels. Dont watch your counters makes gains, then reverse the gains to an extent of dipping into loss
kenmac
#12 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 9:55:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
Afroblk wrote:
kenmac wrote:
First, you have too many counters which is a pointer that maybe you are just speculating. One rule of WB is that diversification is for those who do not know what they are doing. start afresh



First of all, don't we all speculate at some point? even Warren Buffet admitted speculating at some point. Second, diversification is the one thing financial advisers always preach. What if i hadn't diversified my portfolio? I could have lost a fortune.



I agree we all speculate without certainty. However, the issue with too much diversification is that you rarely make good gains. When one end is gaining, the other will be loosing which makes your investment stagnant. Your portfolio has nine counters, and its hard to follow all of them and make good decisions.

as at mwekez@ji says, you need sell and stop loss targets.
......Ecclesiastes
Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 11:07:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
kenmac wrote:
Afroblk wrote:
kenmac wrote:
First, you have too many counters which is a pointer that maybe you are just speculating. One rule of WB is that diversification is for those who do not know what they are doing. start afresh



First of all, don't we all speculate at some point? even Warren Buffet admitted speculating at some point. Second, diversification is the one thing financial advisers always preach. What if i hadn't diversified my portfolio? I could have lost a fortune.



I agree we all speculate without certainty. However, the issue with too much diversification is that you rarely make good gains. When one end is gaining, the other will be loosing which makes your investment stagnant. Your portfolio has nine counters, and its hard to follow all of them and make good decisions.

as at mwekez@ji says, you need sell and stop loss targets.


@kenmac . i used to be of the same school of thought as you, but i learnt better. compare ur performance with nse 20 this year. is better? look at mutual funds with the best brains how do they perform? are they beating the nse 20?
buffet is extremely diversified . berkshire hathaway owns companies in different sectors and large diversified portfolio at that. even the insurance companies they own invest in a diversified manner. read annual letter 2011 for yourself. unless u have the gift to pick stocks, or u believe in ur self that much. it is extremely advisable to diversify at least 5 or more companies
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
S.Mutaga III
#14 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 11:35:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
My own point of view is that diversification should be in line with the amount of cash you have to invest. If you have 100k,I dont see why you should own 10 stocks....four stocks are enough so that you can utilise economies of scale...e.g if the bank charges 100 for dividends from each counter,you will lose 400 compared to losing 1000 in the case of 10 stocks. You will also have an easy time tracking four companies and not 10....research will be intensive and gains will be reasonable incase one counter rallies.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#15 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 11:39:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
My own point of view is that diversification should be in line with the amount of cash you have to invest. If you have 100k,I dont see why you should own 10 stocks....four stocks are enough so that you can utilise economies of scale...e.g if the bank charges 100 for dividends from each counter,you will lose 400 compared to losing 1000 in the case of 10 stocks. You will also have an easy time tracking four companies and not 10....research will be intensive and gains will be reasonable incase one counter rallies. Am surprised someone is comparing his account to berkshire hathaway....hathaway has a lot of cash to buy large stakes in many good companies...you dont!
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
sparkly
#16 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 3:57:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Jamani wrote:
Stock exchange is not for the faint hearted.


The market is a farm. you plant before the rains and harvest after the rains. Anyone who tries to be different will reap nothing.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Afroblk
#17 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2012 2:10:57 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 79
Afroblk wrote:
I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts. I just wanted to highlight some stocks that have really frustrated me, i even forgot about them. I can never sell at a loss, and will hold them for as long as i can.

Bamburi bought @ 170 sometime in march 2010
Housing Finance bought @ 18 march 2010
EAPC @ 85
Kengen @ 15
BOC @ 160

While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit.

BAT @190 now 450
Equity @15 now 23
Carbacid @ 100 now 122
Scangroup @ 45 now 58

NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.



It's been over two months since I expressed my feeling about the NSE and i'm happy to say I've finally managed to offload all the counters that i've made some gains over a period of time. I had a hard time offloading some counters like BOC :( very frustrating but i eventually got a buyer. Nway, below is a summary of my standing since i posted this entry.

Bamburi bought @ 170 sold @189 = 11% gain

Housing Finance bought @ 18 still holding (prospects of the housing market and access to mortgage in middle class Kenyans) with today's price of 15.50 that edges me to a 14% loss

EAPC bought @ 85 (I'm still holding this counter despite the huge loss, I'm not sure why i still have it but im not willing to loose more than half of the value by selling it. planning on holding for about 5 years and acquiring more next year. The company is changing the way they do business and a different source of energy which consumed much of their production costs. Increase infrastructure and GDP growth should push this counter hoping the management will also get their shit together) with today's price of 39.00 i've realized a 54% loss

Kengen bought @ 15 (still holding and planning on acquiring more of these, this is a looooong term counter for me, one that i might leave to my children. So much potential in the Kenyan energy sector especially with nuclear in the horizon. I know they owe a huge debt to Japan and others but it's another thing to acquire a huge stake while its affordable). with the current price of 8.95 i've realized a 40% loss

BOC @ 160 sold @ 109 (This is one counter i shouldn't have touched, should have just stayed with CAB only) realized a 32% loss


While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit. I offloaded all the counters below and reserve my cash for a prospective counter that I've been eyeing for a while. hoping the counter will dip a little bit more approaching the elections.

BAT bought @190 sold @ 487 = 156% gain
Equity bought @15 sold @ 23.20 = 55% gain
Carbacid bought @ 100 sold @ 118 = 18% gain
Scangroup bought @ 45 sold @ 66 = 47% gain

Here's a summary of my losses and gains

Losses
14 + 54 + 40 + 32 = Average loss is 35%

Gains
11 + 156 + 55 + 18 + 47 = Average gain is 57%

Net gain = 22%

Overall i made some poor choices and wise ones and i emerged the winner. I know i will deep dive further from the counters that i'm still holding i.e. HFCK, EAPC and KenGen which are very long term counters. For now i'm holding on to the ash reserves waiting to make a bold entry right before elections when most folks will be offloading. Key thing is try and buy at a bargain but you never know how much a counter can depreciate. Mystery of the stock market.
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
sentinel prime
#18 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2012 3:19:11 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/12/2012
Posts: 92
goodness! you're selling winners and sticking with losers! its called sunk costs/disposition effect and its the number one reason why speculators fail.

instead you should have added to the winners and cut the losers long time ago.

after what you believe to be a selling climax,you want to buy 20+ day breakouts with atleast 25% of intended position size and add if it continues higher....this is the best method to save yourself from ulcers.


the trick is to play small initially and not be mortally wounded by adverse moves and have your largest position in the biggest winners.
mwenza
#19 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2012 3:20:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2009
Posts: 2,863
Hii hesabu inanikumbusha ile ya bodmas tulifanya hapa Juzi...... Kweli hesabu sio rahisi!....How do you talk of overall percentage gains without factoring in quantities held in various counters? Na transaction commissions nayo?
IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
S.Mutaga III
#20 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2012 4:26:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
That is the reason I am a dividend investor.The regular dividend cheque once in a while doesnt hurt.Atleast it gives me the strength to hold on and recover some of the cash I invested.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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