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Kenya Debt Watch
Scubidu
#151 Posted : Saturday, September 29, 2012 8:52:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Kenya financial stability report 2011 has an interest table (8) where they examine government indebtedness to CBK. Treasury rediscounted bonds worth 11 billion and maxed out their overdraft limit to 25 billion. But the most surprising comment below the table read as follows.

Besides rediscounts, the government also exceeded the Overdraft Statutory Limit by about Ksh 0.8 billion in 2011, compared to underutilization of Ksh 0.2 billion in 2010. Accelerated borrowing from central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and therefore leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures.

Read more below on page 24:

http://www.centralbank.g...nancial-stability-report
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#152 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 6:30:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html


But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.

KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects.

Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction! Pray Pray

Quote:
Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.


www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#153 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 9:00:14 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html


But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.

KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects.

Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction! Pray Pray

Quote:
Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.


www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html



What an admission by a central banker, that they're causing inflation. I remember someone telling me he heard some guy at MOF tell a foreigner that the fair value of the shilling was 90. But just like Githae and some of his statement seems people shoot from the hip, making statements without realizing the consequences.

Maybe the only way for the economy/GDP to grow is for government to spend, their spending is on administrative costs as the governor said. Cumulative interest payments on domestic debt are up 44% from 14.9 billion to 21.5 billion. From the cbk weekly the average time to maturity of government securities declined to 4 years and 9 months in September from 5 years and 4 months at the end of June 2012. Seems the country is heading further toward an adjustable rate mortgage - not a good sign when yields are edging up.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#154 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 9:30:21 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
A high ARM period will cause serious havoc to the mortgage market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#155 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 4:03:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com...-debt-restructuring.html
hisah
#156 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 4:53:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com...debt-restructuring.html

It's always interconnected. Contagion...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#157 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 5:54:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@deal - also don't forget that KE has taken a lot of aid from IMF... You know the script esp if KES goes bonkers again...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#158 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 7:55:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw now that Le prof has signalled the debt distress, how will tbill yields remain sub 10%... Will yields go back to 20%? A nightmare that would be...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Kausha
#159 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 9:01:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
T bills will be contained below 10% but you will see Longer dated instrument yields rise significantly. This was always on the cards anyway and it's a pity Prof didn't see it as far back as 2009. You don't loosen policy without target areas. Look at loosening as application of fertilizer. You don't spread fertilizer all over the place, otherwise you run the risk of excess weed growth which is costly to uproot!
mwekez@ji
#160 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 9:23:53 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...-debt-restructuring.html

It's always interconnected. Contagion...


Kenya joining the PIGS¿ Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
24 Pages«<1415161718>»
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