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Kenya airways Right Issue
dunkang
#601 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2012 8:18:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Aguytrying wrote:
The share goes ex dividend tomorrow.

****hides in a corner****

i honestly don't think its the 25 cents that is holding this cacinogenic thing above 11.5/-. the div is too minute to even be considered by a diviend investor.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Aguytrying
#602 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2012 8:28:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
dunkang wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The share goes ex dividend tomorrow.

****hides in a corner****

i honestly don't think its the 25 cents that is holding this cacinogenic thing above 11.5/-. the div is too minute to even be considered by a diviend investor.


I agree, ppl just dont care any more
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#603 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 8:55:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KQ has a friend called SA Airlines...

www.rnw.nl/africa/bullet...ways-crisis-boss-resigns
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#604 Posted : Saturday, September 29, 2012 3:01:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
KQ has a friend called SA Airlines...

www.rnw.nl/africa/bullet...ways-crisis-boss-resigns


The aviation industry is going thru murky waters, from the Quantas to American Airlines. I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly, I mean, the other day Nigerian Airlines asked its passengers to pay 40 pounds more so as to buy fuel, after being stationed at Gatwick airport for over 8 hrs.

SA's issue seems to be deep, this is why govt needs to get out of business...I wonder tho how Ethiopian does it.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Impunity
#605 Posted : Saturday, September 29, 2012 11:45:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
KQ has a friend called SA Airlines...

www.rnw.nl/africa/bullet...ways-crisis-boss-resigns


The aviation industry is going thru murky waters, from the Quantas to American Airlines. I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly, I mean, the other day Nigerian Airlines asked its passengers to pay 40 pounds more so as to buy fuel, after being stationed at Gatwick airport for over 8 hrs.

SA's issue seems to be deep, this is why govt needs to get out of business...I wonder tho how Ethiopian does it.


PATRIOTISM.

We're never colonized, we can do it ourselves.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

guru267
#606 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2012 9:07:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sparkly
#607 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 1:17:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!


@Guru the debt will be in form of dry leases, repayment will start after KQ takes delivery of the new fleet. margins will be better since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical. I would says things will be better for after the debt.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#608 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 2:07:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!


@Guru the debt will be in form of dry leases, repayment will start after KQ takes delivery of the new fleet. margins will be better since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical. I would says things will be better for after the debt.

What does that mean? "since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#609 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 3:17:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!


@Guru the debt will be in form of dry leases, repayment will start after KQ takes delivery of the new fleet. margins will be better since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical. I would says things will be better for after the debt.

What does that mean? "since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical"


He means that the 787's that KQ is acquiring consumes 20% less fuel than the similarly-sized 767.

@guru....300Billion?? Kes or $$ Weka rink

American Airlines woes continue
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#610 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 3:55:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
@guru....300Billion?? Kes or $$


Actually its 200billion Kes that naikuni plans to take on..

www.newspapersafrica.com...ews=business&id=2051

"the rights issue allows us to take on $2.2billion debt" - Titus Naikuni
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#611 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 5:19:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KQ is ex-div today. Let's see if this week the buyers will stem off the sellers...

The capitulation on this counter is so deep yet even a contrarian investor or technical trader would need sizable balls of steel plus a diamond stomach wall to absorb the pessimism of Mr Market...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#612 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 6:22:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
@guru....300Billion?? Kes or $$


Actually its 200billion Kes that naikuni plans to take on..

www.newspapersafrica.com...ews=business&id=2051

"the rights issue allows us to take on $2.2billion debt" - Titus Naikuni


Hii ni pesa kidogo
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#613 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 6:30:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
@guru....300Billion?? Kes or $$


Actually its 200billion Kes that naikuni plans to take on..

www.newspapersafrica.com...ews=business&id=2051

"the rights issue allows us to take on $2.2billion debt" - Titus Naikuni


Hii ni pesa kidogo


just wait for the annual additional interest charge of at least 15billion!!
i wonder if margins will sustain this!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#614 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:09:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!


@Guru the debt will be in form of dry leases, repayment will start after KQ takes delivery of the new fleet. margins will be better since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical. I would says things will be better for after the debt.

What does that mean? "since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical"


He means that the 787's that KQ is acquiring consumes 20% less fuel than the similarly-sized 767
20x & 20% is a huge difference...!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
StatMeister
#615 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:23:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Factor in these random grenades and their impact on tourism. Equivalently the medium term outlook of air travel and tourism.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
Kausha
#616 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:38:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I keep wondering, where these new planes will fly to? Most of the routes in Africa are covered and in any case they need to cull some of the African routes and replace them with a few new good ones

It can't be rise in price of fuel that is making KQ make losses. Some of the extra fuel bill is as a result of expensive hedges taken haphazardly, as well as more miles flown from extra capacity. KQ added an old fuel guzzling 747-400 freighter and 3 embraers in 2012. Furthermore we all get hit with the fuel surcharge once in a while when fuel prices run out of hand.


Airline business is too volatile, competitive and margins are always under pressure. The 200B debt will most likely disorganize the airline. If KQ was run efficiently like a business with lofty ambitions and willing to back it's mouth with solid cash it should by now have accumulated 100B in equity reserves and come for some equity by way of rights before proceeding to borrow the 200B.

However this is not the case and the business has been poorly run since 2007. It hasn't generated a competitive return to give investors a sense of comfort that it can take debt to fund an ambitious expansion. Since 2007 it's reserves have remained in the lower 20B levels. Management is doing too much dreaming without necessarily backing the dreams with rigorous thought process. For me a debt of 200B for KQ to fund expansion with current management is suicidal. This will only lead to a bail out by government in the long run - (Future finance minister please create a contingency for this).
StatMeister
#617 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:43:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
The problem with airlines all over:
1. For normal carriers - budget airlines charging a fraction for the same route
2. For budget carriers - safety issues
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
sparkly
#618 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 1:32:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
murchr wrote:
I dont even think KQ is among those doing badly,


@murchr when KQ takes on the 300billion debt that is when you will see problems coming in full swing!!


@Guru the debt will be in form of dry leases, repayment will start after KQ takes delivery of the new fleet. margins will be better since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical. I would says things will be better for after the debt.

What does that mean? "since the new fleet will be up to 20 times more fuel economical"


He means that the 787's that KQ is acquiring consumes 20% less fuel than the similarly-sized 767
20x & 20% is a huge difference...!


20%, and lets move on to substantive discussion.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#619 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 3:04:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Unless the margins of this company drastically improve, more planes will mean more money, more profit. However the day they get it wrong(like KK, guru will tell you),the losses that will occur will be ground shattering. And with current management, i cant see them maintaining let alone improving the business that has been on a downward spiral.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#620 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 3:21:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ex-div and KQ has seen a balance of buys and sales by foreigners at 8.9M with a volume of more than 1M shares. Is it basing out, we will know in a few weeks time.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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