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CBK MPC Meet!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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@mwekezaji and others as the interest rates dip and profitability from fixed income lessens what stocks might be in demand from investors trooping in from the fixed income side. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:Banks will now respond by reducing the base lending rate to 19%! Should be 18% and 17% if we petition parliament to amend the act. The banks did their own lobbying a few months ago where the parliamentarians ate 50k lunches. If you can't beat 'em... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:@mwekezaji and others as the interest rates dip and profitability from fixed income lessens what stocks might be in demand from investors trooping in from the fixed income side. We will have the banks due to drop in NPLs and Increase in their bond portfolios We will also have the insurance companies due to the rise in the NSE and increase in their bond portfolios We will also have manufacturing due to the falling rate which will lead to a fall in finance costs and boost profitability! That said I would pick one from each sector 1.KCB 2.Kenya re 3.Mumias Sugar Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:maka wrote:@mwekezaji and others as the interest rates dip and profitability from fixed income lessens what stocks might be in demand from investors trooping in from the fixed income side. We will have the banks due to drop in NPLs and Increase in their bond portfolios We will also have the insurance companies due to the rise in the NSE and increase in their bond portfolios We will also have manufacturing due to the falling rate which will lead to a fall in finance costs and boost profitability! That said I would pick one from each sector 1.KCB 2.Kenya re 3.Mumias Sugar 1. HFCK. NIC on radar. Tier II banks is where biggest discounts are 2. Add Jubilee to the equation 3. Manufacturers will lag No. 1 & 2 above in getting the benefits of rate cut
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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And the banks start to cut the lending rates... Kenya’s KCB, CFC Stanbic cut lending rates - http://www.theeastafrica...4/-/cdmew1/-/index.html
Quote:KCB announced it had revised its base rate for normal loans from 22 per cent to 19 per cent while cutting that of mortgages to 18 per cent rate from the previous 19 per cent, the bank’s chief executive Martin Oduor Otieno said.
This is effective on October 1, 2012. On its part, CFC Stanbic lowered its rate from 22.5 per cent to 19 per cent with effect from October 15, 2012. The reductions came only days after the CBK reduced the Central Bank Rate—the rate at which the regulator lends to commercial bank— by350 basis points to 13.50 per cent. The liquidity boost is coming to a squeaky econ that desperately needs it... Next tbill hoarders to move into equities and real estate. No more hoarding... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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A further cut in November will set equities in higher gear!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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With QE now confirmed this should boost my EURKES long position from 104.50. I expect 130 to be tested by election time. Sitting tight for now. Agri stocks with euro earnings should benefit from this trend. Also the USD flood will spike agri commodity prices... Now find those stocks  Also interesting is CADKES & AUDKES. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:A further cut in November will set equities in higher gear!!! NSE now has a Ndungu put plus Super Mario euro put and now uncle Ben. Liquidity floods. Another Ndungu put in Nov would overheat things... But as long as capital gains & fat div cheques are paid, who cares! Now hoping KE political honchos dont pop up to ruin the party with bogus election campaigns...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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More banks lower lending rates... www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/105ekah/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/22/2010 Posts: 510 Location: De egg
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Received this message today . We have reduced our intrest rates to 18 % for more details call Ab**** ..... S***** . Don't know it was from which bank . Peace be with you
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Watching closely USDKES. Likely to test 85.40 then 86.40 in coming weeks... Not liking this pattern at all considering oil prices have rebounded sharply since July. Inflation effects... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Watching closely USDKES. Likely to test 85.40 then 86.40 in coming weeks... Not liking this pattern at all considering oil prices have rebounded sharply since July. Inflation effects...   Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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September inflation slowed to 5.32% while 2Q12 GDP figures showed a growth of 3.3%, the slowest quarterly growth since 4Q of 2009. The combination of these numbers could point to a strong likelihood of a further benchmark rate cut in coming months in order to boost growth. (sib - i concur)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:September inflation slowed to 5.32% while 2Q12 GDP figures showed a growth of 3.3%, the slowest quarterly growth since 4Q of 2009. The combination of these numbers could point to a strong likelihood of a further benchmark rate cut in coming months in order to boost growth. (sib - i concur) Seconded http://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8KS79K20120928
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mwekez@ji - Most likely further CBR rate cut is on the cards due to that dismal GDP performance - the econ is squeaking badly from lack of liquidity. Makes me wonder how IMF expects a GDP growth of 5% this year! However with QE inifiniti now a reality from both euroland and USD motherships, CBK has to be careful with CBR rate cuts. The KES is still very fragile and it can be smashed yet again like last year if they mishandle the liquidity flooding of KES vs the hot money flood in euros and USD. Already within a week of my prediction that USDKES would test 85.40, the target has been hit! How long can CBK manage KES weakness using repos? Commodities esp oil and food inflation are a major thorn going forward and need to be monitored carefully with euro/USD tsunami on the loose... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cutshttp://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031"The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cutshttp://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031"The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst. That spread between CBR and inflation must be iching the CBR cut trigger. But the repo action is what stands in the way. Another huge cut (at least 300bps) is on the cards, but the balancing between repos and USDKES rate stabilization is a tricky path. CBK will be sweating here... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:MPC meeting next week on Wed, 7th November. Rate is called for. Kenya, Uganda inflation falls point to more rate cutshttp://af.reuters.com/article/k...ws/idAFL5E8LV7S220121031"The central bank, I think, should be reducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) because the spread between the CBR and the inflation rate remains extreme and one of the highest in the world. However, the data is confirming the trough in the inflation rate is no longer somewhere over the horizon," said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst. That spread between CBR and inflation must be iching the CBR cut trigger. But the repo action is what stands in the way. Another huge cut (at least 300bps) is on the cards, but the balancing between repos and USDKES rate stabilization is a tricky path. CBK will be sweating here... Probably GoK/CBK has pre-empted the likely USD/KES scenario in event of a deep cut with that USD110 from IMF.
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