Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
|
stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:Hunderwear wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.
For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:
1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.
2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.
3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.
As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.
Happy Hunting. Its 4 months since i adopted the above investment strategy and a good time to analyze the progress so far: 1. KenolKobil - Purchase Price: Ksh 9.30 ; Current price: Ksh 12. 75 Gain: Ksh 3.45 ; % gain = 37% 2. KCB - Purchase Price: Ksh 15 ; Current Price: Ksh 23.75 Gain: Ksh 8.75 ; % gain = 58.3% 3. Williamson Tea - Purchase Price: Ksh 186 ; Current Price: Ksh 232 Gain: Ksh 232 - 186 + 50 (Interim Dividend)= Ksh 96 ; % Gain = 51.6% The three picks have ourperformed the NSE index (NSE Index has risen about 18% since then). Am evaluating the three stocks in light of the prevailing market conditions, the capital gains etc and will soon post my next move concerning the three picks. Happy Hunting......... With such returns so far you can take a holiday for the rest of the year comfortably!!!!!!What your new strategy Its six months (Dec 2011 to May 2012)since i started this thread and since then, the scenario is as follows: 1. Kenol Kobil - A potential buy out at around Ksh 20 will be at least 120% return on investment. 2. K.C.B - Current price Ksh 23 after a dividend payment of Ksh 1.85. (Ksh 23 + 1.85 = Ksh 24.85). Thats a 65% return on investment. 3. Williamson Tea - At a price of Ksh 273 (Plus an interim dividend of Ksh 50) = Ksh 323 Thats a 73% gains and the end of year results are yet to be released where i expect a second dividend of at least Ksh 20. Happy Hunting. Seven months down the line and the scenario is as follows: 1. KK - (Purchase Price=Ksh 9.30; Dividend since purchase=Ksh 0.43). With the expected buy out, it seems to have found some price stability at Ksh 16. Am holding out for Puma cash which i anticipate will be > Ksh 20 (at least 25% more than if i cashed in now). 2. KCB - (Purchase Price=Ksh 15; Dividend since purchase= Ksh1.85). The price seems to have stabilized at Ksh 23-23.50. It is still undervalued; price target is Ksh 40 by April 2013. 3. Williamson Tea - (Purchase Price = Ksh 186; Dividend since purchase = Ksh 57.50). The 2nd half of their financial year was greatly affected by weather. However, they still managed to announce an EPS of Ksh 93 for year ended March 2012. Of importance is that for the last 3 years, the company has announced EPS in the range of Ksh 93-97 hence signaling a new high normal in profitability. Remove the biological assets (non-cash profit) component from the profit and this gives cash profit of Ksh 50-60 yearly. The tea prices are currently at new highs ($3.70-3.80 per kg) and with the precipitation experienced over the last few months, a possible continuation of this trend in profitability is expected. The company has given me a dividend yield of 31% within 7 months!! Am holding onto this one as the future looks bright for Williamson tea (and also my price target of Ksh 400 is yet to be met). Going forward: I am currently accumulating the following 2 counters: 1. Rea Vipingo - At Ksh 16 - 16.50; The company announced above normal EPS last year (Ksh 7.79) which the market assumed was a one off. However, half year March 2012 produced an EPS of 3.47 (Versus Ksh 2.56 for 2011) which indicated last year’s profits were the new normal and could be replicated easily this year. The diversification into horticulture seems to be paying off handsomely (they leased some land in athi river (130 acres) which they are growing baby corn, etc for export in addition to their horticulture project at Kibwezi (250 acres)). Last year, they raised their dividend from Ksh 0.80 to Ksh 1.10, and I project at least a dividend of Ksh 1.50 for the year ending September 2012 based on a Ksh 6-7 EPS for 2012. They hold enormous real estate in Kenya and Tanzania (In Kenya – Kibwezi: 22,215 acres; Vipingo (Near the exclusive Vipingo Ridge): 10,575 acres http://www.businessdaily.../-/wghxkwz/-/index.html
; and Tanzania: 36,660 acres) and are constantly increasing their sisal acreage. The diversification to horticulture is a sound strategy for this agribusiness company. This is a company to watch going forward. 2. KCB – The price of Ksh 23.25 - 23.50 is too enticing to ignore what with my price target of Ksh 40 within the next 10 Months and a dividend of Ksh 2 for 2012. Happy Hunting. KCB seems to have proven me right................I see a Ksh 30 on the near horizon and Ksh 40 within the next 10 months. Happy Hunting Ten Months down the line, and the strategy has proven to be sound: 1. KK - Has not moved much since the last update 3 months ago. Reduced about 1/4 of the KK holding.......doesn't harm to book some gains as this buy-out seems destined for the long haul. Status: Holding onto remaining shares but will consider reducing stake if share prices near Ksh 18 (over 100% capital gains). 2. KCB - My decision to increase my KCB portfolio 3 months ago at Ksh 23.25-23.50 was spot on. The share has appreciated by about 17-18% since then. As i stated 3 months ago, the share should cross the Ksh 30 soon and my target remains Ksh 40 within the next 7 months. Status: Was buying upto Ksh 24; currently holding onto the share with a target of Ksh 40 in 7 months time; may liquidate 1/4 of KCB portfolio at prices above Ksh 30 (will have earned 100% return on investment for those KCB shares i bought at the Ksh 15 level). 3. Williamson Tea - A return of 31% in dividends alone within one financial year was just awesome. The share price has since fallen to almost Ksh 200 signalling a buying opportunity. Even at a reduced dividend payment for 2012 of Ksh 20 per share, at a price of Ksh 200, thats a 10% dividend yield (and a 41% return on investment within two years!!). Tea prices have been good throughout this financial year as evidenced by the rise in bonus payments to small scale farmers for the period upto June 2012 (a 12% rise in bonus payment) http://www.reuters.com/a...a-idUSL5E8KJ14O20120919
http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5E8KILZQ20120918
Status: Buying as prices approach Ksh 200; the share may be the cheapest in the NSE at current prices when one considers the returns on investment/book value/cash EPS etc. 4. Rea Vipingo - Price has stagnated at the Ksh 16 - 16.50 range for too long. As i noted 3 months ago, i expect a final dividend for the financial year ending 2012 of at least Ksh 1.50; about a 10% dividend yield at current prices. Status: Buying at current prices as payday is less than three months away (financial year ends this month). Happy Hunting.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
Nice analysis there...if we would all analyse stocks like this,it would be very hard to make money in the stock market...quite an eye openner. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2010 Posts: 511 Location: kandara, Murang'a
|
Am a believer, getting Rea just cos the Master said  Foresight..
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:Nice analysis there...if we would all analyse stocks like this,it would be very hard to make money in the stock market...quite an eye openner. That's why he's stocksmaster. You should've seen his earlier thread. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 7/20/2012 Posts: 141
|
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
h2s wrote:What about Kapchorua? Its EPS was seriously vapourized in 2011! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
This thread is inspiring...I think am going to change my nickname to Stockstudent...Mr.Stockmaster...whats your view on Sasini? A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
@stocksmaster is it yet time to change strategy? I would think of buying stocks that have underperformed The bull market. I have in mind hf, century, kengen , kq... Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
sparkly wrote:@stocksmaster is it yet time to change strategy? I would think of buying stocks that have underperformed
The bull market. I have in mind hf, century, kengen , kq... Selling cheap stocks to buy "cheaper" stocks (some of which are just value traps) may end up being very costly! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:@stocksmaster is it yet time to change strategy? I would think of buying stocks that have underperformed
The bull market. I have in mind hf, century, kengen , kq... Selling cheap stocks to buy "cheaper" stocks (some of which are just value traps) may end up being very costly! KQ??? not with current management The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
This strategy has proven a success,but I think other metrics have to be considered.There is no point of buying a stock with 10% dividend yeild but the dividend payout does not seem sustainable...like EA cables.Although I noted that the master carefully avoided this one. Another sad fact that I have noted is that most stock prices of sound companies do not dip to a level able to yeild 10%...so a conservative 8% rule may work...or else you will find the number of stocks you deal with very limited...all in all,his methodology is good. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
Aguytrying wrote:guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:@stocksmaster is it yet time to change strategy? I would think of buying stocks that have underperformed
The bull market. I have in mind hf, century, kengen , kq... Selling cheap stocks to buy "cheaper" stocks (some of which are just value traps) may end up being very costly! KQ??? not with current management century???? Basic H1 EPS 0.3 Diluted H1 EPS 0.57 Full Year EPS ??? P/E ???? TP ?????
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/25/2010 Posts: 158
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:This strategy has proven a success,but I think other metrics have to be considered.There is no point of buying a stock with 10% dividend yeild but the dividend payout does not seem sustainable...like EA cables.Although I noted that the master carefully avoided this one. Another sad fact that I have noted is that most stock prices of sound companies do not dip to a level able to yeild 10%...so a conservative 8% rule may work...or else you will find the number of stocks you deal with very limited...all in all,his methodology is good. Does E.A.Cables pay divided? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? Keeping it all in the family
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
|
anika66 wrote:
Does E.A.Cables pay divided? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this?
yes, this time round they paid within 3 days after announced date. mine has already been re-invested await next year huge dividend (kes1-1.5) Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
anika66 wrote:Does E.A.Cables pay dividend? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? I noticed you are always complaining about cables! did you ever notice that you are complaining ALONE?? There are soooo many reasons why one would not receive dividends.. eg ur cheque is lost in the mail.. find solutions to your problem instead of complaining all the time like my grandmother would!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
|
guru267 wrote:anika66 wrote:Does E.A.Cables pay dividend? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? I noticed you are always complaining about cables! did you ever notice that you are complaining ALONE?? There are soooo many reasons why one would not receive dividends.. eg ur cheque is lost in the mail.. find solutions to your problem instead of complaining all the time like my grandmother would!! Ouch!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
mkeiyd wrote:guru267 wrote:anika66 wrote:Does E.A.Cables pay dividend? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? I noticed you are always complaining about cables! did you ever notice that you are complaining ALONE?? There are soooo many reasons why one would not receive dividends.. eg ur cheque is lost in the mail.. find solutions to your problem instead of complaining all the time like my grandmother would!! Ouch! @Guru...sometimes you dont need to use abusive language to a wazuan...there are no points to be earned. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:mkeiyd wrote:guru267 wrote:anika66 wrote:Does E.A.Cables pay dividend? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? I noticed you are always complaining about cables! did you ever notice that you are complaining ALONE?? There are soooo many reasons why one would not receive dividends.. eg ur cheque is lost in the mail.. find solutions to your problem instead of complaining all the time like my grandmother would!! Ouch! @Guru...sometimes you dont need to use abusive language to a wazuan...there are no points to be earned. very true. @Guru your simba is doing well. Have mercy on "wire si wire" people. Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:
@Guru...sometimes you dont need to use abusive language to a wazuan...there are no points to be earned.
roger that. @guru, also note that the last interim div delayed by 4 months. if u have cash, or ur dividend is good, i'll advice u buy more of this wire (personaly it accounts to 43% of my portfolio). this time bizna is good, KETRACO is wiring seriously. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
sparkly wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mkeiyd wrote:guru267 wrote:anika66 wrote:Does E.A.Cables pay dividend? I cant remember the last time i received a check from them. Or are they paying directly into my bank account? I have never seen any payment. Why cant they be open about this? I noticed you are always complaining about cables! did you ever notice that you are complaining ALONE?? There are soooo many reasons why one would not receive dividends.. eg ur cheque is lost in the mail.. find solutions to your problem instead of complaining all the time like my grandmother would!! Ouch! @Guru...sometimes you dont need to use abusive language to a wazuan...there are no points to be earned. very true. @Guru your simba is doing well. Have mercy on "wire si wire" people. @Guru...nobody cares about your grandmother and how often she complains...keep your family problems away from wazua...specifically wire people A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|