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pessimisim cannot take us where we want
Rank: Member Joined: 8/27/2008 Posts: 70
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Tusker,eli and others
Everyone agrees that the global crisis has affected the NSE in some way. But what we are saying here is that the dip has a lot to do with negative sentiments and too much pessimism. Or why would the market capitalization fall from 1.3 trillion to 0.5B in a record 8 months? When our banks and other companies are still reporting good profits? Why would PE banks fall to sub 10 when they are reporting steller profits ? Of course some rogue brokers have also contributed by chasing / frightening potential investors away / out of the market….But this has been discussed extensively and no one should feign ignorance by now….You have had enough time to transfer account to a secure broker like EB or CFC or NIC and spare us from whining here about rogue brokers every other day
Think for a moment…if everyone was positive…that our markets will recover…that this is the best opportunity to invest…we would have more capital inflows….hence a healthy market…but if we keep casting a forlorn look..and telling everyone we are going to dispose shares at throw away prices because there is no recovery soon…who do you expect to buy after you dispose?....I will repeat a million times for Eli and others to hear…NSE WILL NOT RECOVER IN OUR GENERATION IF WE CONTINUE THIS KIND OF PESSIMISIM…Eli you would make more money in a bull market than bear market…bear market is where speculators burn their fingers…the stock market was never meant to be a ready slaughter house for anyone
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Let me elaborate my pt below. If we assume that most of us have a portfolio that is composed of shares in the NSE and or shares in some plots or shares in t-bills or shares in the FTSE and or shares in some maize field. I believe that if you are currently pessimistic about the NSE,you'll sell your shares and move them to the plots or the maize field. If youa re optimistic about the NSE,you'll sell up plots and sink the cash in the NSE. Your mood is not the issue,its what you do about it... Or an analogy. There are two types of shareholders at the NSE. The type who will knock you down if you tell them their spouse is ugly. And the type who'll laugh at you because only they get the benefit of their spouse. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 294
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@ BAAK
I rest my case!
There is no capital gains I get in trying to convince you! Neither is there dividends! Bye!
But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/19/2006 Posts: 66
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Im seeing names like Tusker Baridi-where has he been? i remember when sk started he was one of the main contributors to gether with Yasser big chair. where did he go? used to provide useful insights. Life is what you make it !!! Just do it!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/27/2007 Posts: 2,768
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@ BAAK, You seem to forget that NSE unlike other fully developed markets has always been driven by sentiments,hardly fundamentals. In sentiments you are either optimistic or pessimistic and not both at the same time. so is it not obvious that right now most of the investors are pessimistic about the market and that is why it is in bear. No matter how or where you preach about the pessimism,things are not about to change as this is half of the NSE market requirements for trade.... NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB ...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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@ BAAK I agree with your sentiments,but I am sorry this is not a time to invite others for a ride,what you should be doing is going on your instinct. This are the days of the long knives and everybody for himself. BTW most people on this site are currently silently throwing all the spare cash at this market,we don't need to be told,we have seen how high this market can rise. Most of the current prices are at lows that I never dreamt off even 9 months ago. I am in this market through thick or thin,this is where my dreams will be made or broken,so I keep an eye out for any adverse event,but stick to the buy,buy,buy plan. I don't speculate coz I am not an insider and I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of the price yo yo. I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/16/2008 Posts: 56
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what should be going on through your mind is ..what will the bottom look like?when do we hit rock bottom...How will we know? Remember,nobody flashed an emergency light announcing the arrival of the crisis. ... pessimist or optimist,the recession/bear run affects us all...no matter what your sentiments are.How you come out of it is what matters. regards, My 2sense to you. P.S. In a severe drought you dont sell your cow...money at that time is no good for you. ...If you havent found anything worth dying for...then you aint fit to live ......If you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you talk to him in his language, that goes to his heart....
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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Masila is a small tym mandazi vendor in a village i frequent in machakos..he had a brand of mandazis nothin in nairobi comes close to..and over the year(2008)..he pocketed quite a chunk of proceeds.
His son,andrew graduated from KU last year..Bcom..went hom explained to his dad what global recession is..and what it means to him..and what he should do..especially costs to cut.
Soon..masila's mandazi got smaller in size..no more milk in them..cooked in over used oil..of lower quality than befor..sacked delivery boy,stopped packagin in those kahki paper bugs n wrapped in newspaper instead..
Several weeks later..we don't buy them anymore..nothin unique about them..infact hotels do better.. Masila has a revelation.... 'what do u know... My boy was right!!'
AS a country..we'v 'convinced' ourselves into an actual recession!.
The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Nice one. It gets ridiculous at times. A friend boarded a 23 matatu to Westlands. Told me fares went up 50% (from Ksh. 20-30) today because according to the matatu tout 'uchumi ni mbaya' ! Hold on,hasn't his cost of doing business gone much lower?? Add those some funny companies in that survey that have always wanted to retrench but have lacked an opportune time,this is it!! You're a manager,you don't meet targets,blame the recession!..its another question whether you've ever met any target!! In this 'recession' be wary of those using it to achieve not so noble objectives,your gospel could turn tragically prophetic.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/20/2008 Posts: 16
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@BAAK
I think we have all understood by now that you are a pessimist and we would like you to read or read again the famous book of Benjamin Graham,possibly the revised edition with commentary by Jason Zweig and a Preface and Appendix by Warren E. Buffett,for you to go back being the optimist you're so much preaching to be.
Some of us have a very interesting signature that says something of this sort: 'Be a pessimist when everyone is an optimist,be an optimist when everyone is a pessimist!' something like this.
I just tell you that if you are not a speculator but rather a value investor,than you are now seeing my point right,this is a moment that will be remembered in history,for a long time,take advantage when you still can,find the right stock that has lost the most value,not because business is bad,as you correctly said earlier,but because pessimsits like you are making it to look bad,and optimists like us are waiting for the best bus to board!
Read that book,with passion.
Just an advice.
Mors Tua,Vita Mea. (latin)
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/27/2008 Posts: 70
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Once upon a time…there was prolonged dry spell in the land beyond the seas…and one young man called Ekwe was a water vendor…used to draw water from a well and sell to others…As others cried for rain to come,Ekwe would wish that the dry spell persists…so he continues to gain….His wish was granted…albeit for a moment…but soon all the wells dried up….and he perished…as he had not known how to survive in a famine like the others…
Shortly thereafter there was abundant rainfall…and everyone had more than enough for themselves… Only if Ekwe had known …he would have joined with others and prayed / hoped for rain to come…that way he would have switched to farming once the rains started and would have survived…
Ekwe in this case was the pessimist….So decide who you want to be at this point in time.....
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/20/2008 Posts: 16
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@BAAK
Dear skerian,i admire the vigour in your stories,but I think you miss the point and the story as well! Maybe the dots mean that we need to read in berween the lines but the much known story goes like this:
Once upon a time there was a prolonged dry spell in the land beyond the seas and one young man calles Ekwe was a water vendor who used to draw water from a well and sell to others. As others cried for rain to come,Ekwe,who inherited the well from his father,who in turn had inherited it from Ekwe's grandfather also called Ekwe,would use the well with wisdom in such times of famine,as he was taught over and over by his ancestors,he would advise the people if his land to be careful in using this precious commodity and to save some for tomorrow,coz we never know.
But the people would not listen and would just continue prayng with no avail and using the water as if tommow will rain. Ekwe instead,knowing his well inside out,saved enough water for himself and his family and so when water got finished in all rhe wells,people perished,other ran away never to come back,other persevered. Finally rain came,and a slow return of people old and new was witnessed by Ekwe,who's well was blessed with water all over again.
Who's the pesssimist?
Mors Tua,Vita Mea. (latin)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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@BAAK,Prayer alone without action will achieve nothing. You've assisted many through this thread even those speculators(optimists) that never knew themselves. Speculators: there are pple who believe that the situation will not last forever! Remember change is always a constant. Now go to your broker and instruct him/her appropriately. No fundamentals at the moment but keep vigil for change. Ecs 11.2 Give portions to seven,yes to eight,for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/30/2008 Posts: 5
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I guess assessing the role of confidence is really tricky after all. I'm pretty sure that it is highly unlikely this down turn is entirely due to the pessimistic consumers and citizens,or even pessimistic business people. Keynes was of the view that pessimism could cause recessions...in any case though,we cannt deny that we have a problem.
Its more of a cause and effect scenario. The condition of the US today is the outcome of unhealthy financial decisions taken in the past.What's important is that in the overcoming of this recession we will can see the creation of a new culture of financial discipline.
What i always like to emphasize is that every recession has opportunities.
The bottom line i think is that restoring the confidence in the market is the current biggest challenge before all the governments around the world.
My Broker AVAFX Helps Me Develop As Forex Trader.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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throw back thursday
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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pessimisim cannot take us where we want
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