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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
hisah
#1621 Posted : Thursday, September 06, 2012 4:59:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:

Equity has lagged kcb for a while, I expect memba to rally to 28/- faster than kcb!


@hisah why would insult simba like this?


Because memba has a very interesting bid pattern and when those bidders start pumping it flies very fast. I thot this is common knowledge all the way back from 2008 after the entry of Helios.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#1622 Posted : Thursday, September 06, 2012 7:07:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:

Equity has lagged kcb for a while, I expect memba to rally to 28/- faster than kcb!


@hisah why would insult simba like this?


Because memba has a very interesting bid pattern and when those bidders start pumping it flies very fast. I thot this is common knowledge all the way back from 2008 after the entry of Helios.


This is past information! The future will paint a very different picture!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#1623 Posted : Friday, September 07, 2012 6:13:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
StatMeister wrote:
3900, so near yet so far

If you thought that was close, how about this: "The NSE 20-share index was up 11.48 points ( 0.30%) to close at 3,899.62"

They should introduce "carry forward/rounding off"Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
hisah
#1624 Posted : Friday, September 07, 2012 7:43:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:

Equity has lagged kcb for a while, I expect memba to rally to 28/- faster than kcb!


@hisah why would insult simba like this?


Because memba has a very interesting bid pattern and when those bidders start pumping it flies very fast. I thot this is common knowledge all the way back from 2008 after the entry of Helios.


This is past information! The future will paint a very different picture!

After looking at the cartoons, maybe you have a point...





As per VSA (vol spread analysis) technique, KCB looks more supported and pressing the levels up as per volume spread on the 3 month chart. Technically the price is overbought, but the technicals are being ignored for now since momentum up is strong!


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#1625 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 3:26:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:

Equity has lagged kcb for a while, I expect memba to rally to 28/- faster than kcb!


@hisah why would insult simba like this?


Because memba has a very interesting bid pattern and when those bidders start pumping it flies very fast. I thot this is common knowledge all the way back from 2008 after the entry of Helios.

@hisah are you ready to swallow your words or are you sticking to your guns??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#1626 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 3:57:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:

Equity has lagged kcb for a while, I expect memba to rally to 28/- faster than kcb!


@hisah why would insult simba like this?


Because memba has a very interesting bid pattern and when those bidders start pumping it flies very fast. I thot this is common knowledge all the way back from 2008 after the entry of Helios.

@hisah are you ready to swallow your words or are you sticking to your guns??

I underestimated the momentum on simba. Might have to swallow my words Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Metasploit
#1627 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 4:48:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
But Memba is rallying to catch up with simba.I wont be surprised if it hits 25 before mid next week

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
FUNKY
#1628 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 4:58:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
"Buoyed by solid volumes, week on week turnover soared to KSh.3.5bn from KSh.1.7bn posted the previous week, the number of shares traded stood at 160M against 89M the previous week.

The NSE 20 Share Index gained a total of 53.91 points during the week to stand at 3953.53.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.83% during the week to stand at 86.61 points.

FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index was up 1.89% during the week to close at 114.79 points.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index was up 1.70% during the week to close at 117.24 points."
mlennyma
#1629 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 5:15:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
With t-bills interest below 8% more action may be coming.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#1630 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 7:26:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
When I started this thread, I promised to indicate when NSE will be headed for a bullish period. That time has come!? But not via the NSE chart, but the MSCI Kenya index chart. Very hidden from Wanjikus Sad

But now Wanjikus know smile

Partial recovery happened in Apr 2012 when the falling trendline that marked the 2011 bear trend was broken. In the last 2 months the buy volume has been increasing to the level where foreigners have pumped in 9 billion as net buyers since the start of 2012. A few days ago EABL shares churned more than 1 billion in turnover trading around 0.84% of the share float!

Other factors boosting the calf to mature into a bull: -
- CBK's liquidity boost via CBR sizable rate cut after a nasty liquidity squeeze due to crazy inflation.
- ECB has decided they won't let the euro fold so will do whatever it takes with no time limit!
- US Fed has decided to inject USD into the US economy until umemployment reaches 6% and below levels. The program has no time limit! So we are facing 3 liquidity boost turbo thrusters...
- Fundamentally - hydrocarbon revenues are coming online in future and KE will soon shift from net importer to exporter effectively dealing with the stubborn trade deficit.

Now presenting the chart - MSCI Kenya (MXKE) - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MXKE:IND/chart





Fellow TA fans (@deal, @sparkly et al) what do you think? Note this is a 5yr chart and the falling trendline has been broken with the index closing above it for the first time in 5yrs since the top was put in at 1210 on Jun 5 2008.

I really hope this mbus can delay a bit in order to source more funds for the coming bull run...

Update - anyone also notice the inverted H&S pattern forming... Powerful upside coming up!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
cnn
#1631 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 8:19:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
@hisah...are you suggesting it is time to be fully invested?....time to go for even what is under the mattress?,or is it a calf just enjoying some new found freedom?
hisah
#1632 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 6:52:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
cnn wrote:
@hisah...are you suggesting it is time to be fully invested?....time to go for even what is under the mattress?,or is it a calf just enjoying some new found freedom?

The calf is enjoying being a teen bull for now. From the chart pattern the index is turning bullish, but at a critical zone with final horizontal resistance still present.

Only elections stand in the way. A peaceful outcome will see a huge upthrust both from outside money & money markets. And it also converges with fiscal results in March...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1633 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 1:17:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
2006 flashbacks - www.africanexecutive.com...azine=81&sections=18

Are we about to relive that period...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#1634 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 10:58:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
When I started this thread, I promised to indicate when NSE will be headed for a bullish period. That time has come!? But not via the NSE chart, but the MSCI Kenya index chart. Very hidden from Wanjikus Sad

But now Wanjikus know smile

Partial recovery happened in Apr 2012 when the falling trendline that marked the 2011 bear trend was broken. In the last 2 months the buy volume has been increasing to the level where foreigners have pumped in 9 billion as net buyers since the start of 2012. A few days ago EABL shares churned more than 1 billion in turnover trading around 0.84% of the share float!

Other factors boosting the calf to mature into a bull: -
- CBK's liquidity boost via CBR sizable rate cut after a nasty liquidity squeeze due to crazy inflation.
- ECB has decided they won't let the euro fold so will do whatever it takes with no time limit!
- US Fed has decided to inject USD into the US economy until umemployment reaches 6% and below levels. The program has no time limit! So we are facing 3 liquidity boost turbo thrusters...
- Fundamentally - hydrocarbon revenues are coming online in future and KE will soon shift from net importer to exporter effectively dealing with the stubborn trade deficit.

Now presenting the chart - MSCI Kenya (MXKE) - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MXKE:IND/chart





Fellow TA fans (@deal, @sparkly et al) what do you think? Note this is a 5yr chart and the falling trendline has been broken with the index closing above it for the first time in 5yrs since the top was put in at 1210 on Jun 5 2008.

I really hope this mbus can delay a bit in order to source more funds for the coming bull run...

Update - anyone also notice the inverted H&S pattern forming... Powerful upside coming up!


The market is just forming an extended double top...next year there will be pain at the markets due to:-

1. 2013 Elections
2. Inflation due to

i. easing in the developed markets...already pump prices have started rising
ii. Wage increases
iii. elections spending
mwekez@ji
#1635 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 10:27:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
2006 flashbacks - http://www.africanexecutive.com...azine=81&sections=18

Are we about to relive that period...


I like the year returns displayed in that table Drool
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1636 Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 11:39:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
2006 flashbacks - www.africanexecutive.com...azine=81&sections=18

Are we about to relive that period...

Wow! You've just brought back memories of 06. I remember back then,when it was all about stocks,walking into the brokers office on a Monday morning in early April 2006 to place a bid for KQ at Ksh.100 & sell it at 130 thereabouts after a week or so & then throw in the proceeds into 10 diff accounts i had just opened for the Kengen play. I meet a young,new lady at the reception(SIB) & i go like...i want to place a Kq bid. She pauses & with a humble voice & innocent look,asks me why i'm buying KQ saying it's soo expensive.was rather annoyed that she would question my decision seeing that she was new & naive,or so i thot.Thot to ask her,just in passing what to her she thought was the best play.Again,she paused kidogo,then said HF.That suggestion annoyed me even the more seeing that HF was by then struggling to stay afloat,hadnt paid divs in donkey years.Worse still,the share price was still stranded at 13 bob despite the bull mart then. I quickly told her to bid for Kq & ofcourse disregarded her advice.A day after,there was a rumour that transcentury was contemplating buying some stake at HF & the share shot from 13 to 28!!!!!!!!!!
Moral of the story...Listen to the dull & forsaken,they too have their story!!
@SufficientlyP
holycow
#1637 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 7:29:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
mwekez@ji
#1638 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 9:08:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121


The bull began with the year #NSE 20 #NASI. If all stay ahead of the curve and see smooth and peaceful election, the bull aint stopping. Poor wanjiku was selling in H1
VituVingiSana
#1639 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 11:01:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:

The bull began with the year #NSE 20 #NASI. If all stay ahead of the curve and see smooth and peaceful election, the bull aint stopping. Poor wanjiku was selling in H1
IF, IF, IF like in 2007 then came PEV 2008
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#1640 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 11:28:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977

Wow! The coveted headlines of dismal NSE 4yr performance that has killed off wanjikus. Bottoms are formed this way smile


From the NSE 6161 top, PEV & GFC unleashed a 61.8% retrace. 2011 also bottomed at 50% retrace of 6161.

Fibonacci magic...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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