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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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obiero
#201 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2012 6:24:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,304
Location: nairobi
some people are still looking at this and thinking its just rock in the soil. brothers and sisters, please look keenly and u shall see that this is a diamond!!! healthy dividend policy, extreme deficit in housing demand vs supply, tailored schemes for major corporates such as NMG as well as long repayment terms in its current loan book; quickly reveal that this is not a firm to dissapoint shareholders any time soon
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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VituVingiSana
#202 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2012 7:38:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,369
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
The web is quite interesting if you start digging for information. I wonder how many people are aware that this KE site exists - http://www.irac.co.ke - Interest Rates Advisory Centre - as per their website they are located at Ambassador Court, Block A, Flat No. 3, Milimani Road (Directly Opposite Heron Hotel, next to former CID Hqtrs).

From the site I can see a number of HF cases...

http://bit.ly/S9vJNg - HF's penalty interest charges.
http://bit.ly/S9vJNg - Class action against HF

They also have some case studies - http://www.irac.co.ke/cstudies.html

Is this organization in existence to date?
Now they have more ammunition!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#203 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2012 7:40:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,369
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
some people are still looking at this and thinking its just rock in the soil. brothers and sisters, please look keenly and u shall see that this is a diamond!!! healthy dividend policy, extreme deficit in housing demand vs supply, tailored schemes for major corporates such as NMG as well as long repayment terms in its current loan book; quickly reveal that this is not a firm to dissapoint shareholders any time soon
That's what folks thought a few years ago. Then it crashed from 40s to low teens.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#204 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2012 8:20:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,304
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
some people are still looking at this and thinking its just rock in the soil. brothers and sisters, please look keenly and u shall see that this is a diamond!!! healthy dividend policy, extreme deficit in housing demand vs supply, tailored schemes for major corporates such as NMG as well as long repayment terms in its current loan book; quickly reveal that this is not a firm to dissapoint shareholders any time soon
That's what folks thought a few years ago. Then it crashed from 40s to low teens.

Correct me if i am wrong, but there have been two rights issues since when it was at 40s hence dilution and resultant decrease in price. Also factor their bond, since I assume its some of the same long term shareholders that bought into the bond...
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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VituVingiSana
#205 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 8:52:55 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,369
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
some people are still looking at this and thinking its just rock in the soil. brothers and sisters, please look keenly and u shall see that this is a diamond!!! healthy dividend policy, extreme deficit in housing demand vs supply, tailored schemes for major corporates such as NMG as well as long repayment terms in its current loan book; quickly reveal that this is not a firm to dissapoint shareholders any time soon
That's what folks thought a few years ago. Then it crashed from 40s to low teens.

Correct me if i am wrong, but there have been two rights issues since when it was at 40s hence dilution and resultant decrease in price. Also factor their bond, since I assume its some of the same long term shareholders that bought into the bond...
A bonus/split should 'drop' the price since there is a dilution. A Rights Issue should not dilute the EPS, etc in the medium term. Look at DTBK with 3 Rights Issues in 5 years. Still going strong both in EPS as well as share price.

I like the current management. That's not the issue. I like the spread of business (within the RE sector). It's populist & untested laws/regulations that worry me.

Look at KK & Total. One day price controls (populist) come in. Now there are problems coz the firms can't pass on forex fluctuations or oil price fluctuations along in real time.

The same can happen with populist control of interest rates. If the cost of money rises rapidly (as it did a few months ago) then banks can't pass on 100% of the cost lest firms/individuals default. Banks 'eat' the loss especially the smaller banks with smaller 'cheap' deposit bases.

KPLC had a Rights Issue. The populist measure by ERC to 'freeze' the triennial increase for KPLC (which increase KPLC touted as a plus in the IM) hurt KPLC future expansion & profits.

These populist measures are very popular but hurt the firms. If wages are 'frozen' even when an increase is deserved, you lose motivation. Same here. I hope you get my point.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#206 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 10:05:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Could a kind soul provide HFCK annual report for 2011. thanks
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#207 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 10:15:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Aguytrying wrote:
Could a kind soul provide HFCK annual report for 2011. thanks


@Aguy, sent it to our google group.
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mwekez@ji
#208 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 10:34:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
The web is quite interesting if you start digging for information. I wonder how many people are aware that this KE site exists - http://www.irac.co.ke - Interest Rates Advisory Centre - as per their website they are located at Ambassador Court, Block A, Flat No. 3, Milimani Road (Directly Opposite Heron Hotel, next to former CID Hqtrs).

From the site I can see a number of HF cases...

http://bit.ly/S9vJNg - HF's penalty interest charges.
http://bit.ly/S9vJNg - Class action against HF

They also have some case studies - http://www.irac.co.ke/cstudies.html

Is this organization in existence to date?
Now they have more ammunition!


Show me a single bank worldwide that does not have problematic Non Performing Accounts and cases in courts. NPAs are a norm and so are the cases! Besides, the HF cases in that site are for tiny amounts. Also note that chances of the site winning any cases in the future has been reduced by the fact that banks today have invested in high tech core banking systems with 99.999999999999999999% accuracy. Loan contract letters today are c20 fine printed pages with enough clauses to cover the banks interest and are accompanied by other 101 documents.

By the time some realize that HF is a diamond in the rough we will have made HIGH capital gains + received sweet dividends Drool
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Aguytrying
#209 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 10:59:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Could a kind soul provide HFCK annual report for 2011. thanks


@Aguy, sent it to our google group.


Thanks!!!!! It wasn't there before was it? (ama ni uzee, i dint see it)

I have gone through from 2006 and its impressive.
PAT in 2005 was 58M, PAT in 2011 was 621M. A ten times growth. How long can the growth rate continue at this rate?
This year it may not be much, but the years after that.... i look forward to 1BN PAT in the next 2-4yrs. AWESOME
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#210 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 11:22:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
I like the current management. That's not the issue. I like the spread of business (within the RE sector). It's populist & untested laws/regulations that worry me.

.... populist control of interest rates.


*Interest rate control proposal has been thrown to the dust bin!

*Untested laws fear is overblown!

#Buy The Fear!
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