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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
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King G
#2101 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 12:32:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
Jamani wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
There is a conviction in me which persuades me to take what is on the table other than waiting for the unknown.


The price comes down and KK releases a statement with intent of cautioning the sellers doesnt that tell us something?



That was well calculated and timed nicely for Wanjiku to relax and sure they did.
Thieves
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selah
#2102 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 2:56:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
In 2011 KK changed its accounting policy of asset reporting they are now using historical figures....I think this dropped its asset book by about 1B plus in in Dec 2011....Now the losses from the hedging position were anticipated by the close of yr....this means H1 results had to be impacted by the change in a accounting policy as well as the hedging position taken last year.

The question is can KK reverse the losses in their hedging positions....This will depend with how this positions are valued....I am not a derivative guru so I wont pretend to know how its done but one thing for sure reversing a 4B hole will be a fit.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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mlennyma
#2103 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 3:14:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
At this point in time,no body seems to care about the perfomance of kk,coz puma loves the bride as is where is..only one querry!how much is the agreed dowry?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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t-godd
#2104 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:40:50 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/14/2010
Posts: 28
Location: Limuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
1. What will happen if Puma pays less than 17? (Kestrel has no authority to declare minimum prices)

2. Will Kenol plug their hole of losses with profits from their core business despite continuing to hedge??

3. Will the majority shareholders be comfortable selling below 17bob?? (Very possible since most got in below 4bob)

4. How long will the KK payout take as opposed to other opportunities on the NSE like HFCK??

5. With KKs tiny tiny margins would one call it a good business relative to others on the NSE??

6. Will pending court cases spook puma & other potential suitors??

7
7. If i choose not to sell below 17 am i capable of holding a private entity??

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!


@guru didn't you alight this bus at 13?


14.. Was Up over 40%
And it is 15.50 in 7 days. 15.50 less 14 = 1.50 which is another +11% using 14 as the base. I sincerely believe Puma will pay at least 17 once the roadblocks are removed. Hoping for 20+ but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


@guru267, I thought it was 25%?

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=317012#post317012

guru267 wrote:


I regret selling @ 13.85bob.. But it was at a 25% gain & i put it all into Simba that i believe will provide higher returns than puma!!

L-TOWNS OWN SINCE '90
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VituVingiSana
#2105 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:55:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


Where did you hear that the hedging loss was a ONE-OFF??
At the AGM, they clarified they stopped hedging in Feb 2012 & they do 4-month rollover hedges so the (expensive/under-water) hedges are done by 30th June. Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2106 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:00:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool

Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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VituVingiSana
#2107 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:03:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
In 2011 KK changed its accounting policy of asset reporting they are now using historical figures....I think this dropped its asset book by about 1B plus in in Dec 2011....Now the losses from the hedging position were anticipated by the close of yr....this means H1 results had to be impacted by the change in a accounting policy as well as the hedging position taken last year.

The question is can KK reverse the losses in their hedging positions....This will depend with how this positions are valued....I am not a derivative guru so I wont pretend to know how its done but one thing for sure reversing a 4B hole will be a fit.
The hole cannot be filled in 2H which means FY 2012 will show a loss less than 4bn but a large loss.
The question is... does Puma care about 'history'? The answer is no.
Puma is buying a business they understand & will probably knock off KES 1-3 off the original offer. Puma was aware of some of the hedging losses (as disclosed in the Annual Report) as of 31st Dec 2011. I am sure they knew more than we did when the initial announcement was made. The sellers are no fools either. Yes, they want to exit for political reasons coz a new gov't may not be as accommodating but not at a huge loss.

Finally, the management has an ESOP & the CEO has many options. Every KES counts!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#2108 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:10:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
At this point in time,no body seems to care about the perfomance of kk,coz puma loves the bride as is where is..only one querry! how much is the agreed dowry?
Bingo ;-) 17, 18, 20?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#2109 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:22:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


Where did you hear that the hedging loss was a ONE-OFF??
At the AGM, they clarified they stopped hedging in Feb 2012 & they do 4-month rollover hedges so the (expensive/under-water) hedges are done by 30th June. Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool

Offcourse if one looks at KK´s balance sheet under current liabilities you will see that the hedge position unwind.
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guru267
#2110 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:57:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
t-godd wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
1. What will happen if Puma pays less than 17? (Kestrel has no authority to declare minimum prices)

2. Will Kenol plug their hole of losses with profits from their core business despite continuing to hedge??

3. Will the majority shareholders be comfortable selling below 17bob?? (Very possible since most got in below 4bob)

4. How long will the KK payout take as opposed to other opportunities on the NSE like HFCK??

5. With KKs tiny tiny margins would one call it a good business relative to others on the NSE??

6. Will pending court cases spook puma & other potential suitors??

7
7. If i choose not to sell below 17 am i capable of holding a private entity??

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!


@guru didn't you alight this bus at 13?


14.. Was Up over 40%
And it is 15.50 in 7 days. 15.50 less 14 = 1.50 which is another +11% using 14 as the base. I sincerely believe Puma will pay at least 17 once the roadblocks are removed. Hoping for 20+ but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


@guru267, I thought it was 25%?

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=317012#post317012

guru267 wrote:


I regret selling @ 13.85bob.. But it was at a 25% gain & i put it all into Simba that i believe will provide higher returns than puma!!



The 25% was strictly capital gains..

With the 40% i was factoring in dividends + capital gains + arbitrary trading of the shares!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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