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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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mlennyma
#131 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 3:39:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
I actually think the striking workers are running short of money hence selling some investments...hahaha
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Simplified
#132 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 4:00:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/26/2009
Posts: 67
Location: Pare pare
mlennyma wrote:
I actually think the striking workers are running short of money hence selling some investments...hahaha



and kq staff.
Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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Aguytrying
#133 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 4:25:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I just need two more weeks to make my plunge. I cant believe someone would be kind to sell to me at 14 bob. I was ready at 15.00
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#134 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 5:55:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Aguytrying wrote:
Supply at 14.00. No one should in the future say " i wonder when i should have bought"
Now is the time
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mwekez@ji
#135 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 6:01:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
I await my HF interim dividend that is due for payment on Monday to buy more of this
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e_kijana
#136 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2012 7:16:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/17/2009
Posts: 55
mlennyma wrote:
Hfck has a 52 week low of 12bob and iam sure its among the stocks with a minimal downside left...iam happy somebody is selling to us at 14 when rights was at 20


Rights issue of 2008 was done at 20? This is some serious value destruction. 115m shares added then to make the total 230m at market value after rights was 4.6b and now it's 3.22b anthis is 5 years later. This is serious value destruction!!! 5 years and down.. We need more analysis here.
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hisah
#137 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 7:55:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Back in 2006, TCL wanted to buy HFCK at 12... The deal collapsed at the 11th hour and down came the price from 32.50 high.

Back in Mar 2009 GFC effects saw HF print a low of 12.90

In 2010 HF raced above 26/-

In 2011 & early 2012 HF
tested sub 14/- and bounced.

Late 2012 - HF is yet again testing sub 14 levels...

Market cycles... Seems HF trading range is 12 - 33/-

The dynamics of 2008 PEV, 2009 GFC & 2011 KES collapse have all tested the low of 12/- with no breakage.


HF is now poised for a sharp snapback having been left behind by the market recovery. Going forward the CBR rate cut should boost their books. But the fear baked in this stock could be due to the strict land laws as well as the county land freeze.

Buy fear...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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dave.kim
#138 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 7:04:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
the fall in price might be because of negative cash flow from operations in end year 2011. Same thing with Centum,CFC and Coop.they all had negative CFOs
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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itz
#139 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 9:44:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
hisah wrote:
Back in 2006, TCL wanted to buy HFCK at 12... The deal collapsed at the 11th hour and down came the price from 32.50 high.

Back in Mar 2009 GFC effects saw HF print a low of 12.90

In 2010 HF raced above 26/-

In 2011 & early 2012 HF
tested sub 14/- and bounced.

Late 2012 - HF is yet again testing sub 14 levels...

Market cycles... Seems HF trading range is 12 - 33/-

The dynamics of 2008 PEV, 2009 GFC & 2011 KES collapse have all tested the low of 12/- with no breakage.


HF is now poised for a sharp snapback having been left behind by the market recovery. Going forward the CBR rate cut should boost their books. But the fear baked in this stock could be due to the strict land laws as well as the county land freeze.

Buy fear...



i agree @hisah.this is one undervalued stock.its the only currently at the nse that i i think can be a 10-20 bagger in 10 yrs.In the short term it could touch 11 as those offloading keep doing it and long term institutional holders gain more share as percentage of total float.
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the deal
#140 Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 10:53:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The future is on the Supply side, HF is moving aggressive on that front unfortunately bottom line impact will only be seen in the next 2-3 years. I tend to think this guys are going to unlock Kenya's real estate sector since they are evolving into a one stop shop i.e build and provide financing to prospective buyers, no one has such capacity in Kenya.

On the charts: The stock is oversold. In fact volumes have been above average over the last sessions an indicator that buyers are ready to hold the stock at the current price levels, 15 bob still remain a strong resistance though.
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