Let us keep in mind that
1. The L8 partners did not have the same results for their pre drilling estimates ie the seismic results, Pan con had an estimate of 4.9 BBO and 552b cubic feet of gas. Their gas estimate was below threshold to what Apache would ideally call commercially viable. Apache on the other hand, was estimating a 200-300MBO.
2. Mbawa (L8) is large so their is a possibility that they drilled at the wrong spot. Remember the first well that was drilled in Block 10BB (Loperot well) was also not very promising - shell got 13M net pay - it was abandoned in 1992, yet the Ngamia 1 well returned a reading of over 100M.
3. A thing to note is that oil slicks were observed at the floor of the ocean, so L8 has a very high chance of returning a oil play and may be gas.
I would like to hear what Tullow's observations are.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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