msafiri wrote:Yes,true very low ROE and ROA - ROE - 11%, NIC 29%, ROA 2% vs 6% compared to NIC (based on June 30, 2012 results) however the Price to book value at 0.61 compared to 1.2 for NIC makes this a cheap stock - some slashing of costs will push CFC Stanbic way ahead of NIC in terms of profits.
The issue that I have is that we have been hearing that story for years. I am not saying it cannot happen but the culture at CFC Stanbic (post-CFC) is not conducive to SMEs which will be tomorrow's blue-chips.
Compare NIC, DTB and I&M [All 3 are public firms. I&M's proxy = City Trust] to CFC Stanbic (post CFC).
The 3 have grown their balance sheets, profits & expanded regionally. They were much smaller than CFCStanbic 5 years ago but have maintained a gradual yet 30%+ y-o-y growth in profits. It's about culture, flexibility & being nimble.
CFCStanbic is not allowed to expand into EAC where Stanbic exists e.g. Uganda whereas:
NIC is going into Uganda & is in TZ.
DTBK has a UG & TZ subsidiary. Also in Burundi. Plans for RW.
I&M is not in Uganda but in TZ & Rwanda (as of July 2012). And Mauritius.
Kenya is a mature/competitive banking market vs EAC. Can CFCStanbic (not Standard Bank of SA aka Stanbic) enter S.Sudan? I am sure NIC/DTB/I&M will enter SS within 3 years. Equity, Coop & KCB have already made the move.
If CFCStanbic can sweat the assets & reduce the costs then, yes, I agree. At this point I am skeptical.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett