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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:If only u waited abit, its at 12 now That is a lie at 10.01am  Your broker is conning you! He probably wants you to panic & sell. I got out immediately after those workers went to court, If it gets to 8/- i might reconsider getting in. And it was trading at 12.65 LOL, 200 at 12.65 does not make any difference! And not even close to 12. As for 8, keep on waiting! Lolest 200 pia ni mali ya mtu Kweli  but I do not think it matters in the grand scheme for Puma unless we have 1,000,000 buyers x 200 shares! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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BIDS 239,700
Quantity Price Splits Time
10,000 13.00 1 10:45:48
12,000 12.80 4 10:45:48
10,000 12.75 1 10:45:48
49,900 12.70 1 10:45:48
19,800 12.65 1 10:45:48
ASKS 301,900
Quantity Price Splits Time
1,100 13.15 1 10:45:48
25,000 13.30 1 10:45:48
210,400 13.50 3 10:45:48
10,000 13.75 1 10:45:48
2,500 13.90 1 10:45:48
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
42,200 13.15 10:43:53
31,700 13.15 10:43:45
17,300 13.15 10:43:45
14,400 13.15 10:43:45
9,400 13.15 10:43:38
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:BIDS 239,700
Quantity Price Splits Time
10,000 13.00 1 10:45:48
12,000 12.80 4 10:45:48
10,000 12.75 1 10:45:48
49,900 12.70 1 10:45:48
19,800 12.65 1 10:45:48
ASKS 301,900
Quantity Price Splits Time
1,100 13.15 1 10:45:48
25,000 13.30 1 10:45:48
210,400 13.50 3 10:45:48
10,000 13.75 1 10:45:48
2,500 13.90 1 10:45:48
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
42,200 13.15 10:43:53
31,700 13.15 10:43:45
17,300 13.15 10:43:45
14,400 13.15 10:43:45
9,400 13.15 10:43:38
 No 12 in sight. I also think there are 'hidden' buyers with large orders who will jump in at below 13. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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A positive I can draw from all this, is that we wont have to wait long for the deal now. Once this workers court case is determined, I don't think there is much else they will be waiting for since everything is out there for the public now, the price is now lower(maybe this is what they wanted) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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Aguytrying wrote:A positive I can draw from all this, is that we wont have to wait long for the deal now. Once this workers court case is determined, I don't think there is much else they will be waiting for since everything is out there for the public now, the price is now lower(maybe this is what they wanted) @Aguytrying, what will have happened to fair value price? remember at the time they were talking of fair value they knew the expected loss... and this was transparent to Puma.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Jamani wrote:Aguytrying wrote:A positive I can draw from all this, is that we wont have to wait long for the deal now. Once this workers court case is determined, I don't think there is much else they will be waiting for since everything is out there for the public now, the price is now lower(maybe this is what they wanted) @Aguytrying, what will have happened to fair value price? remember at the time they were talking of fair value they knew the expected loss... and this was transparent to Puma. True. However we do not know the strike price. The market (except you of course  ) would be now more willing now to accept a lower price than before. Just a theory on their mind games. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:A positive I can draw from all this, is that we wont have to wait long for the deal now. Once this workers court case is determined, I don't think there is much else they will be waiting for since everything is out there for the public now, the price is now lower(maybe this is what they wanted) The loss is real. I would not be surprised if Puma knock off 1-2 off the original offer. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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the deal wrote:The last train to paris is boarding now. The mbus @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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Aguytrying wrote:Jamani wrote:Aguytrying wrote:A positive I can draw from all this, is that we wont have to wait long for the deal now. Once this workers court case is determined, I don't think there is much else they will be waiting for since everything is out there for the public now, the price is now lower(maybe this is what they wanted) @Aguytrying, what will have happened to fair value price? remember at the time they were talking of fair value they knew the expected loss... and this was transparent to Puma. True. However we do not know the strike price. The market (except you of course ) would be now more willing now to accept a lower price than before. Just a theory on their mind games. Fear and greed.... its NB's associated firm thats a key player in the transaction that mentioned the fair value and other independent research firms echoed the same, be sure they will go by this, with a premium
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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The floor is 13 today. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:The floor is 13 today. You may have spoken too soon... I hear some serious supply is coming in towards the end of the day! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The floor is 13 today. You may have spoken too soon... I hear some serious supply is coming in towards the end of the day! Good ;-) I am happy to sell something else to get more at 12  I am in for a penny, in for a pound  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Am sure you also know it makes no sence to calculate book value on a company whose assets in the balance sheet are significantly understated due to the use of historical valuation. Watch KK value after revaluation! I thought from 2011 onwards KK would use revaluation rather than historical valuation basis! They released a statement on this! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Am sure you also know it makes no sence to calculate book value on a company whose assets in the balance sheet are significantly understated due to the use of historical valuation. Watch KK value after revaluation! I thought from 2011 onwards KK would use revaluation rather than historical valuation basis! They released a statement on this! I do not recall this. Please guide me to that section in the Annual Report or link or press release. To the best of my knowledge most of the properties/land is shown at historical cost. KK cannot sell off all its land since it would cripple the fuel business but there are some pieces (e.g. underperforming stations or crazy prices offered) they should sell off. 2 items: 1) The peaceful change of power in Ethiopia with an expected move towards less socialism/communism will boost the value of the land in Addis. 2) The KPC case is ongoing. KK has little to lose but could book a gain of KES 2-4bn PBT. I am sure NB & co have factored this in for the Puma negotiations! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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Based on the Friday results, i think KK is holding on strong and might just settle at 12.50 bob and start gaining momentum back to 15 bob (speculator's view). Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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A stock trading more than 1m shares daily for 2weeks now cannot be under estimated. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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KK refuses to back down below 13 despite the large numbers that @guru says are coming up for sale. I see a slow creep back up to 14. Net buying by locals. This shows the strength. If & when foreigners come in the demand will jump. KK should release 3Q 2012 in late Oct 2012 results just to show it is back on track! BIDS 604,100 Quantity Price Splits Time 243,500 13.15 5 14:52:21 12,000 13.10 2 14:52:21 118,600 13.00 12 14:52:21 10,000 12.90 1 14:52:21 23,100 12.85 4 14:52:21 ASKS 364,000 Quantity Price Splits Time 89,200 13.40 1 14:52:21 86,200 13.45 2 14:52:21 110,400 13.50 2 14:52:21 10,000 13.75 1 14:52:21 2,500 13.90 1 14:52:21 TRADES Quantity Price Time 20,000 13.15 14:35:14 63,600 13.15 14:33:53 36,300 13.15 14:33:47 100 13.15 14:33:47 29,000 13.15 14:33:25 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Am sure you also know it makes no sence to calculate book value on a company whose assets in the balance sheet are significantly understated due to the use of historical valuation. Watch KK value after revaluation! I thought from 2011 onwards KK would use revaluation rather than historical valuation basis! They released a statement on this! I do not recall this. Please guide me to that section in the Annual Report or link or press release. To the best of my knowledge most of the properties/land is shown at historical cost. KK cannot sell off all its land since it would cripple the fuel business but there are some pieces (e.g. underperforming stations or crazy prices offered) they should sell off. 2 items: 1) The peaceful change of power in Ethiopia with an expected move towards less socialism/communism will boost the value of the land in Addis. 2) The KPC case is ongoing. KK has little to lose but could book a gain of KES 2-4bn PBT. I am sure NB & co have factored this in for the Puma negotiations! @guru, FY 2011 and even the recent H1 2012 asset numbers are based on historical valuation. Highly undervalued assets there!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Day 2 - 3.37M shares traded. Foreigners - net sellers i.e. 10.12M vs 5.2M foreign bidders. From the charts, downside objective is 12.50/- from where the parabolic started and the day low today hit that target.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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KenolKobil Update on Cautionary Statement 11.9.2012.pdf"... Notwithstanding the expected interim loss experienced by the Company, negotiations with Puma Energy continue to progress well, in line with expectations." "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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