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CBK MPC Meet!!!
Kausha
#221 Posted : Monday, August 27, 2012 2:11:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Before all hell broke loose and we went to 110. Mate, look around, Ghana 23% for a 5 year bond, Nigeria 16%, Zambia 14%. I am sure you know what is carry trading!!
mwekez@ji
#222 Posted : Tuesday, August 28, 2012 10:22:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kausha wrote:
Before all hell broke loose and we went to 110. Mate, look around, Ghana 23% for a 5 year bond, Nigeria 16%, Zambia 14%. I am sure you know what is carry trading!!


KES has been well seated at sub 80/- for history until 2011 when hell broke loose (some read fx manipulation). See 10 year chart 10 Year Chart Link I ask again, why not again? Carry trading is very tricky in this african countries coz of the high fx risk
mwekez@ji
#223 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 11:37:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Shilling gets cover as forex reserves hit record levels

http://www.businessdailyafrica....64/-/s2bkn7/-/index.html

We now await August inflation data and then 5th Sept MPC meeting
mwekez@ji
#224 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 5:41:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
91 & 182 days T Bills rate are in single digit. 364 days T Bill rate is also headed there (currently at 10.336%). I expect a Radical Move by the MPC. (Rich)
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#225 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 5:51:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
91 & 182 days T Bills rate are in single digit. 364 days T Bill rate is also headed there (currently at 10.336%). I expect a Radical Move by the MPC. (Rich)

Hope we are all reading the signs!!!!????
@SufficientlyP
mwekez@ji
#226 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 12:50:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC
youcan'tstopusnow
#227 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 1:19:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC

300bps pap!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
kyt
#228 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 1:43:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC

300bps pap!

i agree, lakini am very sceptical about the inflation computations
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
Kausha
#229 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 2:30:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Again consider this is off a high base when USD, oil etc were high. It doesn't necessary mean inflation is under control. Infact at 6.09% it can be argued it's contained and therefore MPC have to be guarded on how far down they drop lest they create more inflation. I see another 150 - 250 basis points drop, knowing the the profs way of doing things.
hisah
#230 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 4:45:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I like the Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss francs and euros... Let the CBR plunge smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#231 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 5:03:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Tbill 91 day yield down by 46.4bps from 8.583% to 8.119%.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
2012
#232 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 5:14:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


Problem banks are not adjusting the rates accordingly. I saw people are collecting signatures to pressure parliament to amend the law and regulate banks as had been earlier suggested as the banks will never be on mwananchi's side. It's about time they started paying better interests on savings. The fuel regulation seems to be working perfectly.

BBI will solve it
:)
kyt
#233 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 5:17:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
the banks have the financial muscles to bribe the legislators, they have done that twice, and they will do it again, and then again when they do that when will akina cde LOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAARRRRRRR!!!!! Laughing out loudly i dont see it happening.
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
guru267
#234 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 8:55:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
Problem banks are not adjusting the rates accordingly.


When the CBK lowered to the CBR to 16.5% all banks lowered their lending rates by 1.5%..

The banks are following CBR not the inflation or Tbill rate!

So just tulia for 5th Sept.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#235 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 9:03:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%


Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#236 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 9:12:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kyt wrote:
am very sceptical about the inflation computations


SERIOUSLY GUYS!!!

I never once heard anyone complain about inflation computations when the rate was at 19.7%!!

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#237 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 12:34:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
kyt wrote:
am very sceptical about the inflation computations


SERIOUSLY GUYS!!!

I never once heard anyone complain about inflation computations when the rate was at 19.7%!!


hisah
#238 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 5:09:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#239 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 6:15:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ECB meets on Sept 5th. MPC meets on Sept 5th. Coincidence...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#240 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 6:17:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...


The question is do you believe an 18% base lending rate is fair in this environment??

If yes, (i think it is more than fair to the banks) the CBR must be slashed by 400bps!

This is because the banks will not slash a single basis point more than the CBK!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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