Soo true @Hisah,wonder how far down the stock will have gone should kk decide to keep mum & only be heard on 30th Sept as they announce H1 results(they are allowed to delay disclosure until this day)..btw,im not saying they'll pull this stunt...#jus saying

Patience. Kwani, do you harvest the day you plant?

Quote....“We think there are high chances that Kenya will become a major oil producer, trading and exporting country over the next decade vastly diversifying its agricultural and service based economy,” said Standard Investment Bank.

International rating agency Moody’s early last month said that additional discoveries will increase chances that Kenya could become an oil exporter, which will improve the country’s economic outlook... End quote.

With mining prospects set this high, I am thinking/asking why sell KK at a price less than KES 25?

everybody needs to chill. I used to be anxious like most of you but it doesn't help much.
Deal or no deal, I will be fine.

Imagine still owning KK shares with the expected commercial oil viability, Is that really a problem or a gift.

I'm very sure the reason for the delay is negotiation of a higher buy price. Coz It doesn't make sense to sell this company at the brink of major oil discoveries. Unless its some sort of share swap. or attaching a higher premium.

Thats exactly my point....

Not quite.
1) KK has indicated the 'loss' for 1H 2012. It's in the annual report. In B&W. In the Chairman's statement. In the Comprehensive Income. In the Financial Statements under Derivatives. Did Puma know? Yes. The Puma announcement came AFTER the AGM.

2) The NPM in the oil industry are low. They have always been low. Why? Oil firms deal in a commodity that is (very) high volume. KK in particular deals in 'wholesale' trading which has low margins but HUGE volumes. This is a cash (or short-term) business (for the bulk of the sales) so very low level of write-offs. KK's losses in 1H 2012 were from forwards on USD for 4 months [as explained during the AGM].

KK (& other OMCs) constantly turnover (inventory turns/cycles) their inventory. The greater the cycles, the higher the profits without using additional financing/cash/funds. More firms need to do so. Lower margins, higher turnover of stocks = greater profits.

KK is a major importer whose crude/fuel is already pre-sold based on the MoE allocation. KK ships it in, gets paid then releases it. There are penalties for not buying your allocation from KK. A few small OMCs failing to buy from KK doesn't matter since KK can re-sell it to other OMCs, export to EAC or sell through its stations. Think how much (extra) volume Deal Poa pushes.

A firm that sells a low volume item e.g. turbines may sell 2 a year thus the NPM is 'higher' to account for no sales in a particular year, financing costs, storage costs, obsolescence, etc.

The popular ‘Deal Poa’
promotion offering Kenyan motorists fuel savings of Kshs 3.00 per litre off the official
pump price has come to an end. Sunday, August 26th 2012 will be the last day of the promotion, paving way for the resumption of the ERC pricing structure
effective August 27th, 2012.
Regardless of this change, K- Card customers will continue
to enjoy the daily discount of Kshs 2.00 per litre for fuel purchases through K-Card.
http://www.kenolkobil.co.../content/article/58/323

The recent ERC price reduction is hitting OMCs. I was told that the incoming cargoes are more expensive based on increasing oil prices so margins are squeezed. It seems that prices will jump on 15 September so might as well fill up!

True that. They want the business in a given shape and they will have that. I see them giving us a major announcement sooner rather than later.

@chiarascuro - ERC pricing does not take into account the full effect of financing. That has been remarked upon by both Total & KK. I spoke to a smaller importer who said when interest rates jumped from 14% to 28%, the ERC stayed 'blind' to the jump. Since most of the product is financed since even firms like KK have to borrow since it is billions per shipment.