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Facebook IPO
hisah
#211 Posted : Wednesday, August 22, 2012 5:58:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Rollout wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!

I still think $23 is too high for this thing. As you say the short covering will bounce it, but my outlook 4-6 months is this thing will be sub $20. What stops FB from experiencing the same fate as MySpace? How unique is it not to be replicated? Where is the value coming from? What are its assets? People's photos & status?

As @youcant says KE retails got it rough with Britak & Safaricom hype IPO's? I expect FB to remain sub IPO price for a long time.

Stated back in May 22nd post 113. I hope @nabwire bailed out a long time ago...

@rollout - hope you kept shorting like I did...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#212 Posted : Saturday, August 25, 2012 9:39:53 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Some sanity comparison...

Apple stock @ $656 with a P/E of 15 with future earnings looking robust.

FB stock @ $19.16 with a P/E of 40 with questionable future earnings.

Quite simple.

Why is LinkedIn 65% up? They charge for premium services. Faceberg needs to find a way to charge mobile content. If they do will mobile users pay or flee? Currently Mr Market sees the latter.

Samsung to pay Apple $1 billion for patent infringement.

http://bit.ly/R8JC8k

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#213 Posted : Wednesday, August 29, 2012 3:59:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Why Twitter Will Live And Facebook Will Die

http://www.forbes.com/si...-and-facebook-will-die/
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#214 Posted : Wednesday, August 29, 2012 5:05:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
3 Reasons Why There's No Measuring ROI On Social Media

http://www.forbes.com/si...ng-roi-on-social-media/
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Nabwire
#215 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 10:22:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Hisah I never bought FB stock to begin with, my stocks were under water. I still believe in FB though, I think they just need to tweak a few things like most people hate the timeline and cant opt out. But they have alot going for them like Nike Plus, Spotify, Angry birds apps etc, they also now have a dating thing, which could have enormous potential given their 850 million customer base. I think eople are jstwishing Zuckerberg ill coz he's this smart rich kid, it takes alot of work to take a project off the ground. I have a kid in my class who is working on an app for linking people interested in soccer for example, with a park thats ready and available, kd is straight out of high school, spent the whole summer in some GE lab working on his app, and now is in talks with Apple. To think when he finally makes it big, people will just want to tear him down, not knowing how much sacrifice it took to get there. For that reason im team Zuckerberg, digital marketing is the future.
Rolldrunk
#216 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 11:07:38 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/14/2012
Posts: 28
@ Nabwire, facebook is actually trading close to the initial IPO valuation price therefore nothing is wrong with facebook as at now, but I still think it could be down to $15 and settle around that for the next 12-18 months.

I am done with facebook for now but I think Zuckerberg should and will have to step aside as a CEO to let a professional run the company, but if he will stay, the guy should put on a suit! This is not a joke! Otherwise Facebook have smart people and I believe in them but I think Mark will not be able to run the company.

Drunkard aka Rollout
Nabwire
#217 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 11:15:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
You are looking at the price of the stock, Im looking at the value of the company, mainly 850 million users. A suit does not make one a great leader, Steve Jobs???
Rolldrunk
#218 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2012 11:39:02 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/14/2012
Posts: 28
When the company is doing good a suit doesn't matter but when it is not, people get offended by things like that. Steve Job was a different person and Apple had an actually product to sell, Facebook don't have an actual product to sell yet so until they can figure out what to do with 850 Million users, we're still buying Mark's dream and he better be impressive.
hisah
#219 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 1:40:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Nabwire - oh, I thought you got into the IPO hype. Like @rolldrunk aka Drunkard aka Rollout has stated above, faceberg got no tangible product to be valued at this lofty level. I still don't see how they'll churn huge turnovers if they can't monetize mobile traffic now or 10 yrs later. That's my only red flag, 850 million users or whatever. May target still remains $10 or lower or until they ban short selling on it!

Facebook Stock Hits A New Low, Now Down More Than 50% Since IPO - http://techcrunch.com/20...more-than-50-since-ipo/

Quote:
Facebook’s stock just hit a new low and has now lost more than 50% of its value since the social network’s IPO in May. This new record low comes after analyst firm BMO Capital Markets cut its price estimate on the company’s shares from $25 to $15 today. Research firm eMarketer also just announced that it expects Facebook’s revenue for this year will remain under the company’s previous estimates. eMarkteter now predicts that Facebook’s ad revenue will reach $4.23 billion for 2012. That’s up 34% from 2011, but eMarkter previously estimated that Facebook could reach ad revenues of up to $5 billion this year.


And the public funds got screwed too.

Public pension funds stung by Facebook's falling stock - http://www.news-journalo...ooks-falling-stock.html

Quote:
Wall Street investors aren't the only ones feeling the sting of Facebook Inc.'s falling stock: So are some of the country's troubled government pension funds.

Public employee retirement funds from around the country took part in the Menlo Park, Calif., social networking juggernaut's May 18 initial public offering and plowed millions of dollars into Facebook stock before its value plunged.

Facebook shares continued their decline Friday, falling $1.03, or 5.4 percent, to a record low of $18.06, or less than half their $38 offering price.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#220 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 1:48:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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