Kausha wrote:1h12 is a loss of about a billion if you do back of the envelope calculations.
Kengen is very simmilar to KQ, they are in a shareholder value destruction phase which is not very apparent to the naked eye- HOWEVER they will produce enough power for us that's for sure but that will be much more than we need if they execute all their plans.
That question of electricity coverage reminds me of the data story on safaricom. We all need energy but that doesn't translate to we all need electricity. Not all cell phone users need data.
The carbon trading story is a fad, the per unit price paid for it is a sham, ask Mumias, they peddled that story until it lost flavor, there is very little money there.
In 1997 when the economy was kaput peak demand was 723MW, in 2012 peak demand is about 1250MW. Demand for electricity has been growing at 8% annually. KPLC forecast demand at 2,250MW by 2015 which includes a reserve buffer of about 30%-the recommended buffer. Kengen has forecast to raise production to 3,00MW by 2015 and to 5,000MW by 2018. Reminds me of the dotcom bubble and the massive fibre capacity in Europe in the late 90's. Mind you with the exception of Ethopia, everyone else has hydro carbons including somalia. We all know most refineries require a thermal electricity plant besides them to consume the sludge. So who will we export kengen's largesse too. I suspect in 2015 we will start switching off some of Kengen's power stations. Mind you IPP's are on 10-15 year contracts so they are not going anywhere soon. Kengen's consumption of debt is very worrying. Very soon they will come with a rights issue at probably 5 bob, to confirm the share value destruction
The future is KPLC, the fibre thing they have going is brilliant. Every power cable has an embedded fibre to it, note no fibre cuts, pricing is low because it costs very little to set up. Now imagine when 50% of the country's electricity cables have fibre embedded? They also have last mile capability as well. Already this year we are talking 500-600m from dark fibre leasing, yet they have barely put together much fibre cable and much of this to the bottom line!!
My friend!!!! there will NEVER be a time where there will be a surplus in power in East Africa...not until we are old and without teeth. You may have grown up in well lit room and maybe you think its the same for every one else. If we are to have railroads which are electric then constant supply is needed. How much electricity would be needed to power a train from lamu to juba let alone to central african republic? Much of Sudan and Somalia is not powered and for their economy to grow lazima umeme.
When I think of KPLC I am reminded of all the illegal connections, the transformer oil thefts and the cable vandalism. When they sort out that then maybe....and that will only happen if/when they have inplace the underground cable network.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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