Another lesson for a wanjiku like you.. DONT TIME THE MARKET!!!

on the friday,

KCB accounted for 55.1% of turnover with some foreign investors appearing to take profits as the bank reported robust numbers at the close of the previous session. Profit taking was also apparent on Equity Bank, Barclays Bank and to a lesser extent, EABL. (sib)

You will be very luck, like those who got it at 15 to get KCB at 20.5. I will surely want to pick KCB at that price!!

@pkoli on your view what is the lowest kcb can go? Did you see why CIC will be more liquid after 5yrs

@guru,when my profits targets are met and/or i feel the upside move is limited in the short term i gladly take my money,i did with KK at 15.65-16.10 and have done with KCB at 24.50....other opportunities whether in the same or other counters will come.

profit forecast met but iam on market cycles,last year when kcb was at 28 you couldnt image it at 22,it alas it come to 14.80(thought the countries outlook was bleak) but still it printed 14 something .......it will not get to 14.8 now but 20.8 i can bet. You remember one time kcb grew at paltry 5%?how was the mood here,even fellow said MOO owns zero shares of kcb blah blah...also iam not saying that is the mood now,i'm trying to say anything is possible for kcb.

I wish we had such perfect cycles. Be careful as you wait for KCB at 20.8, this time the cycle might not repeat itself. I see the country taking off on a trajectory after the elections and some of the prices will never be realized.

If euroland goes kaboom coz of the debt bomb then all equity markets will behave like a repeat of GFC. But euroland unravelling is much worse than lehman since these will be sovereign default triggering and not companies!

Now if such a scenario occurs with the KE tbills/tbonds at the current high rates, I expect capital to fly straight into them from NSE. That is a scenario that would give CBK & Treasury nightmares. The question will be how to stem of that capital flight which will starve the econ (as well as equities) the little liquidity it has now. Remember the KE econ is on a slowdown...

The positive side is after the panic phase is over a massive CBR cut with other emergency easing tools will be implemented to flush out big money from esp tbills back into the econ as a liquidity flood boost. Chances are equities will be at a discount (I prefer a fat tail - ridiculous oversold) during the panic as well as USDKES could take a knock towards 90 or above.

So rather than just see it as a KE picture, the outlier is what is worrying. Watch out for that euro debt bomb. It is coming. What are the signs so far: -

- Spanish bond yields as well as Italian yield getting to unsustainable levels. Just check out how big this econs are in euroland.

- CBs are starting to talk about using 'tools' at what ever cost. SNB first, now ECB next week I expect the US Fed bank to say something in those lines.

- Many euroland nations are sinking into recession and some headed for depression. The effect has made the bond yields of the 'stronger' euro nations to turn negative!

- China is talking about easing and a slowdown is underway.

- USD & Japan bond yields likely to go negative - capital flight intensifying.

... It might not work with KCB. Works perfect with Pan- Africa Insurance.

@guru t-bill rates are not looking like going down anytime soon,they are actually on the up like the recent 91 day...the biggest most decisive thing at the moment is the political risk...direction of the market will map itself out when its known who will be on the ballot...KCB below 23 is a sure BUY.