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Half Year Earnings Expectation Kick-off!
GenghisCapitalLtd
#1 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 10:47:09 AM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Wazuans

DTB will be kicking off half year earnings season on Monday 16th July at 7:30am (as always @genghiscapital on twitter will keep you updated as the story unfolds). What are your thoughts on its expected performance? Will the recent launch of their rights issue schedule weigh in on expectations?Closed at 89 yesterday, currently at 90..to us undervalued!

discuss!!
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
the deal
#2 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:09:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Wazuans

DTB will be kicking off half year earnings season on Monday 16th July at 7:30am (as always @genghiscapital on twitter will keep you updated as the story unfolds). What are your thoughts on its expected performance? Will the recent launch of their rights issue schedule weigh in on expectations?Closed at 89 yesterday, currently at 90..to us undervalued!

discuss!!


DTB Fair Price Kes115 you can read more here http://www.contrarianinv...nic-bank-vs-dtb-reloaded
Aguytrying
#3 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 2:16:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
[quote=GenghisCapitalLtd]Wazuans

DTB will be kicking off half year earnings season on Monday 16th July at 7:30am (as always @genghiscapital on twitter will keep you updated as the story unfolds). What are your thoughts on its expected performance? Will the recent launch of their rights issue schedule weigh in on expectations?Closed at 89 yesterday, currently at 90..to us undervalued!

discuss!!


DTB Fair Price Kes115 you can read more here http://www.contrarianinv...ic-bank-vs-dtb-reloaded[/quote]

This was a brilliant comparison.
DTB now trading at 89 has a forward P/E of 6.0 and PBV of 1.28.
I have no further comments. This is easy money for a trader. Buy now sell after success of rights(~ 15% gain at 107) or next year at when dust settles at even 140(assuming a conservative P/E of 10)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 2:20:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Wazuans

DTB will be kicking off half year earnings season on Monday 16th July at 7:30am (as always @genghiscapital on twitter will keep you updated as the story unfolds). What are your thoughts on its expected performance? Will the recent launch of their rights issue schedule weigh in on expectations?Closed at 89 yesterday, currently at 90..to us undervalued!

discuss!!


Only risk for quick money is that the results may push the price up prematurely. It may dampen the anxiousness that surrounds rights issues that cause shares to be depressed.
you guys Enjoy, we cant be in all the buses
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 3:08:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
I am surprised that DTB is announcing sooner than perennial favorite Equity Bank. Perhaps going regional means the accounts take more time to review before they are published!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kyt
#6 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 3:36:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
i think the results will influence the price to a greater deal. but i think it will go up eventually whatever the results. 6 months down the line we may see it print even 110-120 or thereabout.
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
youcan'tstopusnow
#7 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:18:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Citi says Kenyan banks overstate profits.
“The six largest banks may be under provisioned by Sh20.8
billion,” says Citi Group.
“We estimate that
International Accounting
Standards (IAS) 39
adjustments overstated the profits of Equity Bank in 2007, KCB in 2011, Barclays Bank in 2009, Co-operative Bank in 2008 and CFC Stanbic in 2008 by 15, 19, 23, 10 and 23 per cent respectively,” says the report titled “Don’t get caught when
the music stops”.
“Sooner or later the
challenging macro-economic environment of the past four
years will have to reflect on the operating performance of Kenyan banks and this should not be overlooked by
the market, in our view,” Citi Group says in the report.
http://www.businessdaily...4/-/m7sytf/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#8 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:29:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Njuguna Ndung’u, the
Central Bank governor,
declined to comment on the findings, saying that such a report needed to be done by
a neutral party.
“I cannot comment on this because it will sound
defensive but we need a
neutral party to make such an analysis,” Prof Ndung’u said.
Richard Etemesi, CEO of
Standard Chartered Bank, said: “In my view this is a ridiculous report, very shoddily put together with absolutely no work done to
validate preposterous
allegations.” He added that the Kenyan banking sector is highly regulated and the figures produced are audited by international firms of
auditors and also the CBK.
“Therefore to suggest that the published numbers could be manipulated by banks in
any way is bordering on the ridiculous.”

I wonder if Citi 'analysed' themselves in the report...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 2:08:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kenyan banks have
continued to enjoy growth, recording a 37.7 per cent rise in the five-month profits to May riding on high interest
spreads that have however seen their non-performing loans rise.
Fresh data from the Central Bank of Kenya shows that the banks’ pre-tax profits were at Ksh43.79 billion ($
521.3 million) as at May this year, compared with Ksh31.8 billion ($378.5 million) posted in the same period last year. The five months
performance surpasses half-year profits in 2011, when the banking sector reported Ksh40.8 billion ($485.7 million) in after-tax profits.
http://www.theeastafrica.../-/mg0s9cz/-/index.html

Talk about business as usual...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 2:13:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Did DTB already announce?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Kausha
#11 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 2:43:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Lakini it's known it was Citi investment banking that did the report. Secondly Kato Mukuru was at Rencap and spend a great deal of time looking at banks in this region and wouldn't be shooting from the hip.

Secondly,Richard should stop hiding behind international audit firms has to end. It's the same International audit firms which audited Uchumi which went down less than 2 months after release of annual results, the same audit firms which have been auditing CMC which resembles a 1992 KANU campaign secretariat and the same audit firms which found that nobody had eaten maize in the PM's office.....

Fact is the loan book can't double and the dud loan book shrink in absolute numbers over the same 5 year period, a period during which the economy has struggled bar 2010. Someone is not telling us the truth. Unless the money is being lent to Flour manufacturers.
accelriskconsult
#12 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 2:52:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
I would put my trust (not literally) in Citi on this.

The banks have done nothing to debunk Citi's findings besides the fact that creative accounting is usually so complicated as to require forensic accountants to unearth. The CBK's main supervisory tool in this battle is 1) Returns and 2) Audited financial statements. On returns, they are usually so simplified that only a very dedicated analyst will want to examine the detailed schedules supporting the numbers. Analysts have targets on the number of returns they are supposed to turn around in say a month and therefore may not be interested in details.

About audited financial statements, audit firms are known to prefer promoting staff who do not raise many audit issues, meaning that the bright sparks exit audit very quickly. The reason for this surprising preference is that the less questions/matters arising/outstanding issues there are, the more likely that the client will settle audit fees quickly and the audit team can move on to other projects.

Many financial statements including those of banks are therefore audited and signed off by hacks who feeling nothing about sweeping outstanding issues under the carpet. The message is simple, if the auditor refuses to sign on the audit report, management will find someone else who can. The result is audit opinion based on the minimal assurance that the auditor can get away with- then cover his ass with a management representation letter in which management basically puts its neck in a noose. The problem in Kenya is that investors never take enough time to understand companies they invest in and their operations. When that day comes when the investor wakes up, those management representation letters will hang the CEOs but the auditors will hide under them. As I keep on saying on this forum, trust audited financial statements at your own risk.
yaserbigchair
#13 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 3:57:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/19/2006
Posts: 113
Location: Mombasa
I would advice investors to buy DTB at 80-85 not a penny more!

Levels of 70-75 can also be realized.
Sound that I love most: Is the ringing bell of Stock Market.
hisah
#14 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 4:29:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I still have issues with KE banks playing monkey tactics with their bonds portfolio... Only SCBK and NBK marked their bonds to market...

Kenya: Price Your Bonds to the Market Price - http://allafrica.com/stories/201105302171.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#15 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 4:00:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=hisah]I still have issues with KE banks playing monkey tactics with their bonds portfolio... Only SCBK and NBK marked their bonds to market...

Kenya: Price Your Bonds to the Market Price - http://allafrica.com/stories/201105302171.html[/quote]
What's the harm in posting only realized losses? ;-)
hisah
#16 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 5:37:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=hisah]I still have issues with KE banks playing monkey tactics with their bonds portfolio... Only SCBK and NBK marked their bonds to market...

Kenya: Price Your Bonds to the Market Price - http://allafrica.com/stories/201105302171.html[/quote]
What's the harm in posting only realized losses? ;-)

I wanted those bonds to be marked to market so that they would push down the share prices. I'm allowed to be greed you know smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
FUNKY
#17 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 5:59:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
HFCK have announced a interim of 70cts per share...still waiting for more info.
maligumu
#18 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 6:34:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/22/2010
Posts: 510
Location: De egg
FUNKY wrote:
HFCK have announced a interim of 70cts per share...still waiting for more info.

That makes total divs @1.40 and this diamond never moves . The market has ignored this stock . Wapi @ the Deal sema kitu .
Peace be with you
Hunderwear
#19 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 7:52:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
FUNKY
#20 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 8:04:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
This thing has not exploded even when the NSE is at its all time high!!
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