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Rethinking Safaricom
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chiaroscuro
#1 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 11:19:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
The green giant has reached saturation in terms of growth. There are virtually no new growth areas remaining in the voice market.

In addition, this segment has seen severe price wars and all players are bleeding cash like no-man's business.

But their data side is growing steadily. And Mpesa is also expanding it utilisation.

At the current 3.50, the P/E is about 11.

Does this make it a good long term prospect?
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sparkly
#2 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 11:32:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
chiaroscuro wrote:
The green giant has reached saturation in terms of growth. There are virtually no new growth areas remaining in the voice market.

In addition, this segment has seen severe price wars and all players are bleeding cash like no-man's business.

But their data side is growing steadily. And Mpesa is also expanding it utilisation.

At the current 3.50, the P/E is about 11.

Does this make it a good long term prospect?


Listen to my advise and DON'T buy. Been stuck on the stock in the losses territory for too long. Its now at 3.60 and the higher it goes the more risky it is to buy. If you didn't buy at 2.70 - 3.00 its too late.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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murchr
#3 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 12:37:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
It is a good long term buy. Think....cloud, digital TV, data and that will answer your question.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#4 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 9:14:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I look at it as mpesa bank, hopefully one day the bank will breakaway & cbk may force the break. Telcos, techs & airlines are tricky stocks to own since their environment shifts are too dynamic.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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abdulrahman
#5 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 10:55:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 261
To me is a dont buy counter, one may argue that data may grow,with all the hype in digital TV but the voice business continues to loose market share. Mpesa has plattooed (sic)and we dont expect a double digit growth.
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accelriskconsult
#6 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 2:09:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
abdulrahman wrote:
To me is a dont buy counter, one may argue that data may grow,with all the hype in digital TV but the voice business continues to loose market share. Mpesa has plattooed (sic)and we dont expect a double digit growth.



You are wrong on MPesa plateuing. If anything it should explode due to interface with bank accounts and points of sale.
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gatoho
#7 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 8:29:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
Plateauing GRAMMARNAZI!
Foresight..
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chiaroscuro
#8 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 10:47:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
57 days later, the green giant has jumped 17% [to Sh4.20 today. And the momentum is still on...

5bob by year end?
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Jamani
#9 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 10:51:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
BIDS 11.78M
Quantity Price Splits Time
4.61M 4.20 5 10:50:59
587,900 4.15 2 10:50:59
500,000 4.10 1 10:50:59
557,000 4.05 4 10:50:59
5.45M 4.00 10 10:50:59
ASKS 1.31M
Quantity Price Splits Time
398,800 4.25 2 10:50:59
420,400 4.30 4 10:50:59
11,000 4.40 2 10:50:59
478,900 4.45 7 10:50:59
- - - -
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
43,700 4.20 10:49:53
6,000 4.20 10:49:53
200,000 4.20 10:49:41
794,000 4.20 10:49:00
500,000 4.20 10:49:00
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maka
#10 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2012 11:14:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Aly Khan has always had faith in this counter even when the stock price dint reflect that I think am with him on this one its definetly a good long term buy...
possunt quia posse videntur
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