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Investors Lounge
hisah
#2541 Posted : Tuesday, July 10, 2012 7:57:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So far ECB, BOE, PBOC and many other CBs are cutting rates including UG, KE etc as econs take knocks. US Fed meets on Aug 1, and the likely scenario is similar to 2010. Thus I expect QE to be relaunched in order to save broda euroland.

If QE is in the tune of $500B support, buying equities and hammering the USD will be back in fashion... I'm waiting for this outcome, latest Nov 2012 after US elections.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2542 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 7:27:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The California cities bankruptcy galore is gaining steam - stockton, mammoth lakes and now bernardino... State Municipal bonds, watch them...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2543 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 7:19:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Now US states to join the LIBOR manipulation lawsuit. Madoff will be shocked at how small his scam was. This one has the look of a fantastic legal bonanza and the class-action lawsuits will pile up like bids in a red mercury market?!

www.reuters.com/article/...E86A1H420120711?irpc=932

LIBOR affects $550 trillion interest rate derivatives contracts, so one can hardly imagine the staggering amount of global chaos should 10% or more of these contracts get breached!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2544 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 7:37:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Periodic table in finance...

www.flickr.com/photos/expd/7550806770/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2545 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 7:48:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
HSBC to be fined $1 billion for laundering... Seems this year international banks are in the fines paying business... No wonder the XLF index has been tanking since Dec 2011.

http://edition.cnn.com/2...gulators-fine/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
karanjakinuthia
#2546 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 3:06:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Interestingly, bankruptcy of the individual states of the U.S.A. does not threaten the federal union and the U.S. dollar. Wouldn't it be wise for Europe to borrow this model of consolidating debt under the title "Eurobond" whereby bankruptcy of, say, Greece will not send the entire monetary union and Euro into a death spiral?

"SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. (AP) — As recently as last month, no city in California had opted for bankruptcy since 2008, and no U.S. city of more than 200,000 people had ever chosen bankruptcy.

The past two weeks have changed all that, in a big way, as the fiscal struggles faced by so many American cities became too much for some to bear.

San Bernardino became the third California city in that small span to choose Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection with a City Council vote on Tuesday night...."

Read more: http://www.businessinsid...pt-2012-7#ixzz20PQnRsht
hisah
#2547 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 3:25:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Togo PM and government resign, no reason given - Bizarre!

http://af.reuters.com/ar...ws/idAFJOE86B03R20120712
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2548 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2012 3:36:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
The project is expected to attract more foreign retailers into the Kenyan market. Garden City is likely to send prices skyrocketing in neighbouring areas along the Thika highway.

Charles Kibiru, the managing director of Thika Greens, a golf estate located in Thika, reckons that Kenya should expect similar investments along the highway.

“Thika highway is the place to go. It is a hinterland and foreign investors should put their money here. We welcome the Actis investment because it will bring services closer to the people and help decongest the Nairobi central business district,” said Kibiru.

The project, he added, will also lead to job creation and economic development by attracting foreign brands to Kenya.

The groundbreaking of the Garden City will take place in December with completion targeted for May 2014.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mnandii
#2549 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 8:32:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
The California cities bankruptcy galore is gaining steam - stockton, mammoth lakes and now bernardino... State Municipal bonds, watch them...


Many more investors will be left holding paper.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2550 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 8:34:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Kenyan Banks Cooking Books
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2551 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 8:48:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
How paper money will end?

On deflation I disagree.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
youcan'tstopusnow
#2552 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 9:10:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Moody's has cut Italy's
credit rating, warning that the country was likely to see a sharp rise in borrowing costs.
The rating was cut two
notches to Baa2 from A3,
two levels above junk status.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18824246
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
karanjakinuthia
#2553 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 2:39:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
murchr
#2554 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 6:11:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Moody's has cut Italy's
credit rating, warning that the country was likely to see a sharp rise in borrowing costs.
The rating was cut two
notches to Baa2 from A3,
two levels above junk status.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18824246


Question: Did moody upgrade Kenyas credit rating?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#2555 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 6:22:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Put dishonest bankers behind bars - http://www.avaaz.org/en/...kers_behind_bars_f/?copy
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#2556 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 4:41:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Quote:
Kenyan Banks:
Don't get caught when the music stops

 It's been grand — Within our MEA banks universe, the Kenyan banks have been stronger outperformers in 2012. In our coverage universe, Equity Bank (EBL) and Kenya Commercial Bank are up 31% ytd and 38% ytd. The bank shares have been following the robust operating performance of the industry, which continues to defy the challenging macro-economic and social backdrop. As banks ultimately tend to reflect the macro, we think it is time for the market to pay attention to the risks.
 The market should be concerned about the following:
– Macro disconnect — Since 2007, real GDP growth has contracted twice, the CPI has been a yoyo, the currency has devalued 26%, rates have gone through the roof, and despite all of this, system profits have grown 27% p.a. and the NPL ratio improved to 4% in 2011 (from 11% in 2007) — this should concern us.
– Underprovisioned — We estimate that the six largest banks ('Big 6') may be under provisioned by KES20.8bn (49% of FY11 profits or 12% of FY11 equity).
– Overstated profits — We estimate that IAS 39 adjustments overstated the
profits of Equity Bank in 2007, KCB in 2011, Barclays Bank in 2009, Co-operative
Bank in 2008 and CFC Stanbic in 2008 by 15%, 19%, 23%, 10% and 23%,
respectively.
– Potential mortgage woes — After rising 3-fold since 2000, property prices were
up only 1.4% yoy at 1Q12 and the mortgage book now represents 8% of system
loans. The concern here is the 50% risk weighting on these exposures — the banks cannot afford to get caught in a bubble
– Liquidity mismatch — For the Big 6, 72% of their deposits have a contractual duration of less than 3 months while 80% of their loans have a duration of more than one year — this gap is widening and not shrinking, so it shouldn’t be overlooked.
 Equity Bank, Sell — We downgrade EBL to Sell (from Neutral) and reduce our target price to KES17/share (from KES19/share). We also lower our 2012, 2013 and 2014 EPS forecasts by 9%, 9% and 5% respectively.
 KCB, Neutral — We downgrade KCB to Neutral (from BUY) and reduce our target price to KES23/share (from KES27/share). We also lower our 2012, 2013 and 2014 EPS forecasts by 4%, 9% and 9%, respectively.


Why is this Citi report not sounding genuine, we'll it din't have any impact in the market but lets watch how trading starts off in the coming week. I find it shallow esp given that the banking industry in Ke is not focused on Kenya alone rather the region.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#2557 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 7:55:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:

Why is this Citi report not sounding genuine, we'll it din't have any impact in the market but lets watch how trading starts off in the coming week. I find it shallow esp given that the banking industry in Ke is not focused on Kenya alone rather the region.


@muchr do you expect to write a genuine and objective report on your competition?? Its obvious you would have nothing nice to say...

Therefore it would be too much to expect Mr. market to react to a bunch of lies & hate speech!

Even the CBK declined to react to such a bias report...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#2558 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 8:43:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Will JP Morgue become Enron... It's getting interesting this show smile

www.bloomberg.com/news/2...organ-is-like-enron.html

www.reuters.com/article/...E8620LK20120706?irpc=932

www.reuters.com/article/...on-idUSBRE86C1A420120713

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mnandii
#2559 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 9:43:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Nabwire
#2560 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 9:56:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
LOL at the periodic table, thats funny! Gosh you guys hate bankers!!!
I read somewhere that the govt should not bother jailing bankers coz they will just privatize the jail and sell it off to themselves...LOL!! Why lie, thats the team I'd rather be playing for, untouchable!! But JP Morgan, how can the share be up almost 6% yet their trading losses estimates were found to be double what they initially reported...LOL!! Gotta love the bank hustle.
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