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Kenya power
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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-d YBC left stocks to play gold..now that Gold is not doing well...he might be back...KP used to have a massive following on Wazua but ever since the rights issue the stocks supporters have gone underground....I remember someone selling KK to KP....
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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KP is a good stock,but concerns linger since KP is a parastatal where corrupt "vultures" in the name of politicians have big say.....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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speculator wrote:itz wrote:i remember when they had that rights issue and the pps was at 23-24,there is a guy who use to say it would go to about 16.I was of the same opinion but this drop to 14 is a bit extreme.I believe part of the reason is the regulators have refused for kplc to increase its tariffs for the last 2 years.Utilities(kengen,tcl,kplc) are boring stocks good for dividends and long term play because of the fact that they are very capital intensive businesses.Buy kplc and put it in your retirement account.you will be very happy later Yes that guy was YARSERBIGCHAIR. We called him names, asked him to prove that KP would touch 16. I cant believe now even 12 is a possibility. Btw still waiting for his list to buy. He was talking of it in the IMMEDIATE aftermath of the Rights Issue. That was not the case. Lots of water under the bridge since including sky-high oil prices, high interest rates, etc. Even KenolKobil dropped from 110/- to 60/- (pre-split) then went up to 12/- then back to 8/- but slowly inched up to 12/- For YBC, the question was of time-frames not absolute numbers, which can be meaningless... BTW, KPLC gave a bonus since the Rights Issue Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy. It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%. No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Aguytrying wrote:If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.
It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%. No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events. The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising. Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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slykat wrote:Aguytrying wrote:If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.
It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%. No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events. The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising. Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP? You bring a good point. If there was such a reason, only top management and sources privy to them would know. Could it be the fact it is a parastatal and this is an election year? Could it be the fact that Mr Market is irrational as he most frequently is? Im hoping so. It might well be the new dividend policy, small dividends and a bonus? Assuming no ill wind is sweeping through the company(we have no evidence to suspect this), KPLC is undervalued. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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VituVingiSana wrote:Impunity wrote:Fyatu wrote:what is happening with Kenya power? The stock price keeps on falling And they have doubled both the standing charges and VAT amount and no one is seeing all these rip-off! Fixed charge = 240 (up from 120) VAT (28 up from 14) The 240/- is for 2 months. They combined the billing. VAT is set by GoK as a %. KPLC gets nothing from it. Thanks for clarification @VVS. Portfolio: Sold You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Aguytrying wrote:slykat wrote:Aguytrying wrote:If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.
It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%. No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events. The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising. Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP? You bring a good point. If there was such a reason, only top management and sources privy to them would know. Could it be the fact it is a parastatal and this is an election year? Could it be the fact that Mr Market is irrational as he most frequently is? Im hoping so. It might well be the new dividend policy, small dividends and a bonus? Assuming no ill wind is sweeping through the company(we have no evidence to suspect this), KPLC is undervalued. Just seen that foreign participation on this counter has been low from may.Gleaning the columes,you will discover that most of the volumes bought and sold are small and from local small scalers. Dont have time to put this in graphical but see the volumes as below;Supply is always twice the demand.I am waiting for 13.80 or 13.5 Demand Supply 291,000 625,600 10 May 178,500 224,900 11 May 65,500 321,200 12 May 214,800 249,300 13 May 1,597,100 1,743,000 17 May 470,200 646,400 18 May 237,800 334,900 21 May 350,100 129,400 23 May 1,027,100 1,041,400 24 May 359,900 607,400 25 May 535,300 943,400 30 May 496,400 845,800 31 May 270,100 766,900 4 May 283,800 795,100 5 May 129,700 757,600 6 May 116,000 622,000 Today 10.00 “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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. “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@Metaspoilt. I believe there has been silent accumulation in this counter. I say this because of the trades occurring between 13.85-14.50. You will notice that the heavy supply "hangs" high and is rarely ever heavy near where the demand , there seems to be hidden demand that sweeps supply even when it looks like theres no demand. And large trades occur with the supply never really coming down to meet the demand. Meaning its being mopped up faster than it can come down/or when it comes down. Akin to something we saw with kenolkobil at 9.00 though less marked and not as obvious. I believe this 13.80-14.00 is the support. should it fall further a new pattern may emerge. but from 14-16. this share is still a bargain. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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In truth when a share is beaten down there are no takers, no talking about it. But when a stock jumps 10% like 3 different threads occur, it human nature anyway. KPLC has gone back to the 15.00 level, clearly the 2nd last support with 14.00 being the last support. The financial year ended on june 30th, but we'll have to wait till oct/sept for results. I hope they maintain their 10-15%(maintainable) growth trajectory. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mwekez@ji wrote:@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus I've thought about that, actually thanks for asking. My estimate is 1:10 to 1:8 for the next 2 years. There was Around 600,000 shares un-issued left after 2011 bonus issue. They gave around 300,000 shares last time with the 1:8. So I am estimating 300,000 shares bonus issue per year for two years that this year 2012, and next year 2013. which gives 1:8 to 1:10 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Oh and a paltry dividend of course. but they may up it from 0.10 of last year to reduce the shame. ha ha. Maybe its why they reduced the interim to 0.20(from 0.35) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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KP should be trading in the 20s. Sooner or later, the stock will start rising even without foreign investors supporting the stock. Remember, there was a time few foreigners were participating in ARM.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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KP should be trading in the 20s. Sooner or later, the stock will start rising even without foreign investors supporting the stock. Remember, there was a time few foreigners were participating in ARM.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Kenya Power monopoly at risk? New distributors could be given licences. Source: KTN Business GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Kenya Power monopoly at risk? New distributors could be given licences.
Source: KTN Business
This will take a bit of time. Unbundling started with generation and up to now we have very few players.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Aguytrying wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus I've thought about that, actually thanks for asking. My estimate is 1:10 to 1:8 for the next 2 years. There was Around 600,000 shares un-issued left after 2011 bonus issue. They gave around 300,000 shares last time with the 1:8. So I am estimating 300,000 shares bonus issue per year for two years that this year 2012, and next year 2013. which gives 1:8 to 1:10 I honestly dont think that is a corporate action to look forward to. The bonus will hurt share price. Look at what @young is saying about such action in stanbic uganda. If they raise the paltry final dividend by 100%, one gets KES 0.20 per share which is a mere 1.3% yield at the current price of KES 15.15. I see most wazuans led by @stocksmaster are targeting 10% yield We, or rather I, can there conclude that on matter relating to corporate action, KP scores poorly. What then makes KP 'a buy'? Genghis Capital has rated this company a buy with a target price of KES 22
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mwekezaji. Kp is not a buy because of dividend. Its because it is grossly undervalued. P/e below 6. Ur right about the bonus issue weighing down on the stock price esp because the bonus yield is almost equal to annual profit growth. A cancelling effect in the end. But share still undervalued and with dilution of eps comes more shares. So a less marked rise in pe in future still gives adequate returns. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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