An investor is an investor,whether from the diaspora or not.

The question that should be asked is what are the justifications for these unHoly property prices in Kenya. For example a quater acre in Surrey is about 13k gbp. A quater in Eastleigh without roads,water,electricity is going for ksh25 million. Now who's fooling who here?

I for the first time,am in total agreement with Tusker (did I say that?). The Kenyan property market is as fake as the stocko exshagi. There will be major shifts soon and the ones who will make it are the ones who invested outside this fake City.

These are the things that are going to happen in Kenya over the next few years so judge if your 15 million kahouse in South B is worth it.


The internet - Why live in a traffic jam when you can do the same work online living in Kisumu,Nakuru,or Kitengela?
Road Network - The day they finish those roads they harp about all the time will be the beginning of the end of high property prices in the City. Case in point. Once they finished building Rt. 95 and 93 in Boston,all law firms moved from the crowded city to quieter,friendlier areas out of it
Rents - if the rent paid for your property is lower than the mortgage,you have an overpriced property. People can no longer afford to pay 25k for a bed sitter in south C when they can live in Kitengela,Ruiru,Kinoo in a mansion for the same.

The only thing that Kenyans will be doing in the CBD is going to gov't offices. Even the information PS wants to kill that by setting up cyber villages in each and every constituency. Did someone say devolution?

How badly are Kenyan properties overpriced? A three bedroomed new and high class apartment 10 minutes drive from Boston with no killer traffic is going for about 500,000 dollars. An inferior property in Kileleshwa next to a slum and with no water and terrible roads is going for 35 million. Come on guys,even those diasporans you are talking about will see the light soon.

The reason diasporans invested as they did at that time was because they could borrow cheaply in an American bank. Build a house they wished to come and live in after they retire. That was then. Now,credit is hard to come by,stories about being conned are all over,dual citizenship is not there,and they are also not stupid enough not to see that the market is overpriced.

Those that have finished building have already done so,the others won't touch this market even with a gun in their head. They are more likely now to start investing in IT business and other off stocko exshagi businesses.

so don't get too excited about buying a home in Nairobi. Go out further,build your dream home slowly and you will enjoy the fruits of living in a quiet neighbourhood for a long time. Why do you think jungus are building in Naivasha,Malindi,off Mombasa Road etc.

It is a wrong notion to believe that prices will rise forever. However,in the foreseeable future,the rise will be witnessed. Not until when the factors that fuel the rise change materially. Again,it takes time for real estate prices to respond to the said factors,hence it is not clear which direction things will go. Those who have keenly followed the property market are aware that before the Narc govt,real estate was not as vibrant. Again the powers that be influence a lot of what happens in the market.

To draw parallel to the stock market,the factors driving the rise of the prices in the recent past did change and the results are there for all to see. I expect the same to happen in real estate at some point,but when is anyone's guess

..wise as a serpent,humble as a dove

I have keenly followed the discourse on this thread and I must say I am very impressed. I also noticed that there is a tendency here to chase the train which has already left. In my years of investing,I have tried to practice the adage of buying low and selling high. There are certain places in Nai that missed out on the real estate bubble,if I were an investor I would pursue these opportunities now instead of chasing the train that already left(which may soon crash).

I think the future of real estate in Nairobi may be in multy-story highrise condos especially close to the CBD. This is after the security and water issues are finally resolved. One place of interest would be the other side of CBD,towards Jogoo road. This area is very close to CBD yet it has some old estates(cant remember the name,maybe Muthurwa estate?) that I'm sure one can buy now and just sit back and wait for the inevitable price hike.

Could anyone elaborate on the ownership of these houses? My guess is that they are probably owned by the NCC but I am not sure. Either way,that area seems to be poised for the next Upper Hill of Nairobi once it is spruced up and gentrified. What do you guys think?

The houses/Muthurwa Estate was owned by Kenya Railways,the Government has turned the Muthurwa Estate into a Market and Bus Park for all PSV vehicles from Jogoo Rd. Although the Project could have been much better of than how it was done crazy mess altogether.

Landmawe,Makongeni are still Goverment estates owned by KR,Ololo,Shauri,Bahati Botela name them all up to Buru Buru to Doni all old are either NCC or Government which needs to be redesigned. The Future of NCBD may grow towards these areas that will depend on how government may develop or dispose some of these estates,by as Upperhill have now changed totally.

@tonystark - It is tough to figure out the top until after it has been peaked...

There are many factors that affect the price of properties but bubbles are formed in every asset category including Real Estate. Look at the USA or UK or many other markets.

Of course, a GROWING economy will support higher prices (demand driven) but the illiquidity of Real Estate also creates 'sticky prices'... and they play into each other...