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NSE BUS LEAVING THE STAGE
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:How fast we've gotten to 3,700pts. This was Ally Satchu's year 2012 closing figure.
While im happy, so happy at the rally, one has to sit back and ask themselves; where do we go from here?
Over to the chartists @Hisah,@Deal and @QW....comments please...
I thought cartoons (aka charts) were no longer appreciated...
On 21/05/2012 the NSE20 closed @3708. Today it has closed @3704. However, I am not excited on a technical analysis basis. The RSI indicator since 24/04/2012 (@3581pts) has not been making new highs as the index went up to 3708 and now trying to retest 3708. This means bulls are running out of strength to push the index further or to new highs.
On elliot wave I had suggest sometime back that 3800 - 4000 is the likely topside then we start the correction. I expect one more exhaustion topside attack to 3800 - 3900 then the correction kicks in.
On fibo basis @3796 NSE20 would have retraced upto the 23.6% level from a low of 3072. 38.2% retracement aims 4432.
Therefore a lot of resistance is coalescing at the 3700 - 3800 zone.
@deal can also confirm what his models show. @mwekezaji too does some tech analysis.
Fundamentally - the econ is still limping. I don't like what I'm seeing with the national current account. Election periods in KE also mean investors hold back a lot of investments. Eurozone is still a nightmare happening silently. The sooner it happens the better for everyone to move on.
Update - forgot to mention that oil announcement and the level of commercial deposits will shutter most of the technicals.
@Hisah, i'm no cartoonist but learning never ends. So RSI is approaching 70, time to hit the sell button?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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@Hisah, i'm no cartoonist but learning never ends. So RSI is approaching 70, time to hit the sell button?[/quote] @Hisah, @HC, My dearest M-Pesa Bank RSI is fast approaching 70 but the demand closed the week steady and strong @3.50, volume was 6.4M. Unasemaje, finya button or hold position temporarily? Holding ni mpaka wapi? Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Pesa Nane wrote:@Hisah, i'm no cartoonist but learning never ends. So RSI is approaching 70, time to hit the sell button? @Hisah, @HC, My dearest M-Pesa Bank RSI is fast approaching 70 but the demand closed the week steady and strong @3.50, volume was 6.4M. Unasemaje, finya button or hold position temporarily? Holding ni mpaka wapi?[/quote] NKT people should do their own research. An overshot RSI sometimes signals an entry point! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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sparkly wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:@Hisah, i'm no cartoonist but learning never ends. So RSI is approaching 70, time to hit the sell button? @Hisah, @HC, My dearest M-Pesa Bank RSI is fast approaching 70 but the demand closed the week steady and strong @3.50, volume was 6.4M. Unasemaje, finya button or hold position temporarily? Holding ni mpaka wapi? NKT people should do their own research. An overshot RSI sometimes signals an entry point![/quote] hehhehehe. i like the way people like quoting rsi here . Nothing else .  but its A GOOD INDICATION TO SELL
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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sparkly wrote:
NKT people should do their own research. An overshot RSI sometimes signals an entry point!
@Sparkly, Thanks for the advise! As for your 1st comment Quote:NKT, people should do their own research , I take it in jest. Some of us are waiting for the publishing of -NSE STOCKS FOR DUMBS (fools). Meantime, we continue to believe in "The Wazua Spirit is to educate, inform, learn from others;"  Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! . topping meaning we are going back to 3072 and below ?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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QW25091985 wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! . topping meaning we are going back to 3072 and below ? Lol in a bull market folks think prices will go up forever....I will leave you with those wise words...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the deal wrote:QW25091985 wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! . topping meaning we are going back to 3072 and below ? Lol in a bull market folks think prices will go up forever....I will leave you with those wise words... @deal. For once i agree with you. People think a rally like this will never end, they forget so fast. at election time lets look back and see where we were. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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Aguytrying wrote:the deal wrote:QW25091985 wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! . topping meaning we are going back to 3072 and below ? Lol in a bull market folks think prices will go up forever....I will leave you with those wise words... @deal. For once i agree with you. People think a rally like this will never end, they forget so fast. at election time lets look back and see where we were. wow . its quite interesting why some will think the prices will go back to 3072 and below effectively pushing kk to nine bob and below , equity at below 17 bob and kcb below 15 bob .okay lets see.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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QW25091985 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the deal wrote:QW25091985 wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! . topping meaning we are going back to 3072 and below ? Lol in a bull market folks think prices will go up forever....I will leave you with those wise words... @deal. For once i agree with you. People think a rally like this will never end, they forget so fast. at election time lets look back and see where we were. wow . its quite interesting why some will think the prices will go back to 3072 and below effectively pushing kk to nine bob and below , equity at below 17 bob and kcb below 15 bob .okay lets see. @Qw the 3072 is coming out of your head...what I was saying the market can still rally 8% from here to 4000 before a correction sets in...I never mentiond 3072...where is the 3072 coming from?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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I think by mid August, things will be looking different.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Time to head for the exit!
Back in 2010 Q3 NSE was the hottest market in Africa, then 2011 things snapped.
Does the performance much the fundies this yr? Current account deficit still outsized, VAT coming soon to essential commodities, KES still babysitted by CBK. Fundamentals way down than 2010. The NSE rally still remains a bounce still in a bear channel. The real bull comes above 4400 - 4500 levels. Above this level even the likes of paka will turn to gold?!
www.nigerianbestforum.com/index.php?topic=104757.0
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! One more exhaustion upthrust to complete the wave from 3072.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! A bull run can be as short as a week and as long as 15 years If you want to know where this bull is headed ask yourself.. Are Kenyan stocks currently cheap, fairly valued or overvalued?? Ask yourself how many stocks trade below their book value & at single digit P/E ratios depite having double digit growth in profits... Then & only then will you know where we are in this cycle! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! One more exhaustion upthrust to complete the wave from 3072. Uganda economy grew by 2.4 pct in Q1, 2012 you can read more here http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFN6E8G901D20120629 now lets wait for Kenya's Q1 2012 GDP figures...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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.... June inflation has fallen sharply to 10.05% from 12.22% in May 2012 http://www.knbs.or.ke/cpi/cpi062012.pdfSince dec, it has been on a downward trend .... thats good news for the market. it also signals monetary easing is in offing
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:.... June inflation has fallen sharply to 10.05% from 12.22% in May 2012 http://www.knbs.or.ke/cpi/cpi062012.pdfSince dec, it has been on a downward trend .... thats good news for the market. it also signals monetary easing is in offing While CBR is still stuck at 18% for months, a widening current account and a baby sitted KES. I'm sure the mwananchi would disagree with that inflation slump with stagnated wages. Such confidence this...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:the deal wrote:We are now at 3700...from here there is little upside...the highest we can go is a 4000 in other words the market is topping...once you see headlines like Best Performer know that the rally is done! One more exhaustion upthrust to complete the wave from 3072. Uganda economy grew by 2.4 pct in Q1, 2012 you can read more here http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFN6E8G901D20120629 now lets wait for Kenya's Q1 2012 GDP figures... This is laughable to say the least. Just look at their econ metrics. Such a joke.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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