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AGRICULTURAL STOCKS LOOKING GREENER
VituVingiSana
#121 Posted : Wednesday, June 20, 2012 9:15:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
I trust this will in no way dampen the spirits of all the courageous investor farmers out here smile

Tea production in Kenya dropped by 14 per cent in the first three months of 2012 because of drought and frost attacks.
http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/9589tqz/-/index.html
Calendar 1Q 2012 is history ;-) Now, we look at 1Q 2012-13 for WTK & KTC [which is April-June 2012] when it rained plenty!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#122 Posted : Friday, June 22, 2012 4:58:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
With GCSI index tanking heavily since March 2012, I think commodity based companies will take in sizable losses. Coffee prices are not looking good as well as tea as well as oil etc... And the chart below is indicating more trouble ahead for commodity prices as more price bleeding is on the cards. Currently at 559 the index is back to 2010 levels having wiped off all 2011 gains!

KES has also been held steady by CBK manipulation.
Heavy rains may not be the saving grace for agri stocks this year.



$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
stocksmaster
#123 Posted : Friday, June 22, 2012 5:06:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
hisah wrote:
With GCSI index tanking heavily since March 2012, I think commodity based companies will take in sizable losses. Coffee prices are not looking good as well as tea as well as oil etc... And the chart below is indicating more trouble ahead for commodity prices as more price bleeding is on the cards. Currently at 559 the index is back to 2010 levels having wiped off all 2011 gains!

KES has also been held steady by CBK manipulation.
Heavy rains may not be the saving grace for agri stocks this year.





http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5E8HJFGQ20120619

Coffee prices maybe on a free fall, but not so tea. Tea prices have been above $3 dollars per Kg for the first half of this year; actually they have been rising in the last 1-2 months to the $3.5-3.6 levels per Kg.

Just like with any index, it may be better to consider the individual commodities rather the the whole index as a whole.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
hisah
#124 Posted : Saturday, June 23, 2012 8:30:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Stockmaster - I see your point. Compared with tea prices, coffee prices have shuttered! Therefore a pure tea exporter play would be more rewarding than a pure coffee play.
Now if only CBK can stop the artificial KES strength manipulation to add more juice to the pure tea play.

Anyone had a look at global sugar price index? Those speculating with mumias, caution!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
stocksmaster
#125 Posted : Sunday, June 24, 2012 10:20:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
hisah wrote:
@Stockmaster - I see your point. Compared with tea prices, coffee prices have shuttered! Therefore a pure tea exporter play would be more rewarding than a pure coffee play.
Now if only CBK can stop the artificial KES strength manipulation to add more juice to the pure tea play.

Anyone had a look at global sugar price index? Those speculating with mumias, caution!


The next 9 months will really test the CBK's ability to keep the Ksh below 90 to the dollar.

Holding cash in a dollar account within the next 9 months may just deliver a 20% gain in value by end of March 2013.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
VituVingiSana
#126 Posted : Friday, June 29, 2012 9:29:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Stockmaster - I see your point. Compared with tea prices, coffee prices have shuttered! Therefore a pure tea exporter play would be more rewarding than a pure coffee play.
Now if only CBK can stop the artificial KES strength manipulation to add more juice to the pure tea play.

Anyone had a look at global sugar price index? Those speculating with mumias, caution!

The next 9 months will really test the CBK's ability to keep the Ksh below 90 to the dollar.

Holding cash in a dollar account within the next 9 months may just deliver a 20% gain in value by end of March 2013.

Happy Hunting.
That would require it to hit 100/-... not saying it can't happen. IMO, CBK should let it head to 90 then hold its ground instead of supporting it at 84/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#127 Posted : Friday, June 29, 2012 9:33:26 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Nothing from Williamson/Kapchorua... What are they brewing up? A bonus/split?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksmaster
#128 Posted : Friday, June 29, 2012 9:52:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
VituVingiSana wrote:
Nothing from Williamson/Kapchorua... What are they brewing up? A bonus/split?


Am also curious because the deadline for their reporting should be end of business today...............

The profit warning for Kapchorua was very interesting.........wonder wether Williamson Tea which manages and owns the majority shares of Kapchorua could be planning a complete take over?? A devaluation of the business would be a first step........and Williamson Tea does have loads of idle cash reserves.......

They even revamped their website and curiously, they don't mention Kapchorua as a company anywhere on that site........its only mentioned as one of the Williamson Tea farms!!!

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
VituVingiSana
#129 Posted : Friday, June 29, 2012 10:01:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Nothing from Williamson/Kapchorua... What are they brewing up? A bonus/split?


Am also curious because the deadline for their reporting should be end of business today...............

The profit warning for Kapchorua was very interesting.........wonder wether Williamson Tea which manages and owns the majority shares of Kapchorua could be planning a complete take over?? A devaluation of the business would be a first step........and Williamson Tea does have loads of idle cash reserves.......

They even revamped their website and curiously, they don't mention Kapchorua as a company anywhere on that site........its only mentioned as one of the Williamson Tea farms!!!

Happy Hunting.
End of Year results are due 4 (not 3) months after the year end. The 1/2 year (unaudited) results are supposed to be released within 3 months... The Williamson Tea website is more of a sales tool for the 'parent' than for investors.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#130 Posted : Friday, June 29, 2012 10:20:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
WTK normally announces on 20th June, record from last 2yrs. What ever they are brewing it better be good.
@stocksmaster- there's a thought Think
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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