With GCSI index tanking heavily since March 2012, I think commodity based companies will take in sizable losses. Coffee prices are not looking good as well as tea as well as oil etc... And the chart below is indicating more trouble ahead for commodity prices as more price bleeding is on the cards. Currently at 559 the index is back to 2010 levels having wiped off all 2011 gains!

KES has also been held steady by CBK manipulation.
Heavy rains may not be the saving grace for agri stocks this year.

@Stockmaster - I see your point. Compared with tea prices, coffee prices have shuttered! Therefore a pure tea exporter play would be more rewarding than a pure coffee play.
Now if only CBK can stop the artificial KES strength manipulation to add more juice to the pure tea play.

Anyone had a look at global sugar price index? Those speculating with mumias, caution!

That would require it to hit 100/-... not saying it can't happen. IMO, CBK should let it head to 90 then hold its ground instead of supporting it at 84/-

Am also curious because the deadline for their reporting should be end of business today...............

The profit warning for Kapchorua was very interesting.........wonder wether Williamson Tea which manages and owns the majority shares of Kapchorua could be planning a complete take over?? A devaluation of the business would be a first step........and Williamson Tea does have loads of idle cash reserves.......

They even revamped their website and curiously, they don't mention Kapchorua as a company anywhere on that site........its only mentioned as one of the Williamson Tea farms!!!

Happy Hunting.

WTK normally announces on 20th June, record from last 2yrs. What ever they are brewing it better be good.
@stocksmaster- there's a thought

It cant be the profits because it always announces with WTK..

what about their website?

What we need is more rain (not flooding) & not frost! With high tea prices, it's production volumes that count. The strong KES does hurt but here is what I see:

1) Strong KES, high prices, high interest rates, decent harvest/quality, low debt = good cashflow & high interest income

2) Weak KES, low(er) interest rates, decent/quality harvest, low debt = strong cashflow & forex gains.

My concern remains potential PEV that would 'freeze' exports of tea (what happened in 2008) as warehouses become full. In addition, tea on the farm can go to waste if it is not picked since workers may desert the place of work for reasons of safety.

I prefer (2) above since it is sustainable & better for the long(er) term though inflation will be a problem. Oil prices matter a lot since the Tea production process & trade is highly dependent on fuel to run the machines, factories, lorries, etc.