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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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the deal wrote:My take:
1. The shares where unfairly suspended from trading by the CMA, so there was no need to keep them suspended since they didn't suspend PAI from trading despite the bid from Sanlam.
2. Puma Energy might have walked away...it happened to Nedbank and HSBC due to:-
i. couldn't agree on a strike price with the big guys
ii. Discovered some rot on KK's books
3. The deal is still on and an announcement is imminent The Deal 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:A CFC guy called me trying to persuade me to sell.  Are they serious? Hahahahaha! Anyone else been called? Ati sell Unless they have info on the whats going on so that one can do it at the right price
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@The Deal, In the absence of any other information, I will lean towards the fact that a deal is still on. The 6 weeks period for due diligence has expired and hence the shares have resumed trading in accordance to the cautionary issued on May 7th. the deal wrote:My take:
1. The shares where unfairly suspended from trading by the CMA, so there was no need to keep them suspended since they didn't suspend PAI from trading despite the bid from Sanlam.
2. Puma Energy might have walked away...it happened to Nedbank and HSBC due to:-
i. couldn't agree on a strike price with the big guys
ii. Discovered some rot on KK's books
3. The deal is still on and an announcement is imminent
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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Deal or No deal nothing will change on my part....although full disclosure shld be made.If this deal dies in a murky kind of way ,then definitely there will be something in KK books that spooked Puma...and that is not a good thing. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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"White smoke! * 3 We want white smoke!"
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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that profit warning feels like de javu all over again 2008-2009...every time the international oil prices dip Kenol and Total take a hit they are left with expensive oil to sell in a regulated market. Unless GoK removes those price controls the oil majors will have major cash flow to deal with...I continue to keep off oil stocks till GoK removes the price controls
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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I think The profit warning is a stopgap measure to arrest speculative trading.The factors given were definitely anticipated by the management.Last yr the same factors affected KK's profitability why shld they highlight them now? For instance, Interest paid nearly Tripled in 2011 from 544M to 1.4B movement on hedge reserve went from a loss of 14M to a loss of 1.5B. So, unless KK's risk management is a joke then I hope this is just an excuse to deter speculator...if its not, then we are in for a big shock. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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The losses due to hedging/derivatives were mentioned in the Annual Report. Read the Chairman's Statement. Anyway, with the crazy movement of the KES in Dec 2011 from 83 to 107, it seems KK entered into some bad hedges with the KES/USD. It is hard to blame KK when it's a crazy volatile market. Also the oil prices were climbing fast so were there other 'failed' hedges i.e. buy oil at higher prices when Brent is how at $96 vs $115 then? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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@VVS I thought hedging sole purpose is to cushion a company against volatility. Whats the point of hedging if in a volatile environment you loose by huge margins.....and not in a single financial year but in a subsequent year. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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selah wrote:@VVS I thought hedging sole purpose is to cushion a company against volatility.
Whats the point of hedging if in a volatile environment you loose by huge margins.....and not in a single financial year but in a subsequent year. True but they must have hedged one-way. The problem in KE is the lack of enough derivatives i.e. Banks will sell you Forwards but the other side doesn't work as well... In KK's case, as a NET buyer of $, they can enter into Forwards [supply KES for USD] but not into the other side i.e. offer to sell USD for KES. It seems KK hedged by entering into forwards i.e. asked for $ in the future by supplying KES at a 'fixed' price. The price was probably higher than the current spot rates of 83-86. IMHO, the KES is too strong [GoK/CBK is paying very high interest rates] & hurting local manufacturers & farmers. Farmers compete against 'cheap' maize, pay 25% in interest, etc Perhaps, Kenya needs a WEAKER (but not too weak) KES that gives local farmers & manufacturers a price advantage. Lower interest rates would help as well. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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selah wrote:I think The profit warning is a stopgap measure to arrest speculative trading.The factors given were definitely anticipated by the management.Last yr the same factors affected KK's profitability why shld they highlight them now?
So, unless KK's risk management is a joke then I hope this is just an excuse to deter speculator...if its not, then we are in for a big shock.
My friend why are we refusing to admit KK will do badly in 2012?? Are you married to the stock?? Last year segman told us profits would be 50% higher and we were all screaming his praises.. Why shouldnt we believe him now?? A profit warning is a profit warning.. Nothing else!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Tokeni niingie...m'mekaa ndani sana. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:selah wrote:I think The profit warning is a stopgap measure to arrest speculative trading.The factors given were definitely anticipated by the management.Last yr the same factors affected KK's profitability why shld they highlight them now?
So, unless KK's risk management is a joke then I hope this is just an excuse to deter speculator...if its not, then we are in for a big shock.
My friend why are we refusing to admit KK will do badly in 2012?? Are you married to the stock?? Last year segman told us profits would be 50% higher and we were all screaming his praises.. Why shouldnt we believe him now?? A profit warning is a profit warning.. Nothing else!! When did he say profits would be 50% higher for 2012? Please show me the article. Thanks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:selah wrote:I think The profit warning is a stopgap measure to arrest speculative trading.The factors given were definitely anticipated by the management.Last yr the same factors affected KK's profitability why shld they highlight them now?
So, unless KK's risk management is a joke then I hope this is just an excuse to deter speculator...if its not, then we are in for a big shock.
My friend why are we refusing to admit KK will do badly in 2012?? Are you married to the stock?? Last year segman told us profits would be 50% higher and we were all screaming his praises.. Why shouldnt we believe him now?? A profit warning is a profit warning.. Nothing else!! When did he say profits would be 50% higher for 2012? Please show me the article. Thanks. She's talking about 2011 profits, not 2012 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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For the doubting thomases The due diligence process is still ongoing and all along we had access to information, including the company’s financial books and their retail sites,’’ said Mr Meyer in a telephone interview with the Business Daily. “Despite the drop in profits, we are still keen on acquiring a majority stake in KenolKobil since it still remains an excellent business for us.” http://www.businessdaily...44/-/t9sc7y/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:selah wrote:I think The profit warning is a stopgap measure to arrest speculative trading.The factors given were definitely anticipated by the management.Last yr the same factors affected KK's profitability why shld they highlight them now?
So, unless KK's risk management is a joke then I hope this is just an excuse to deter speculator...if its not, then we are in for a big shock.
My friend why are we refusing to admit KK will do badly in 2012?? Are you married to the stock?? Last year segman told us profits would be 50% higher and we were all screaming his praises.. Why shouldnt we believe him now?? A profit warning is a profit warning.. Nothing else!! When did he say profits would be 50% higher for 2012? Please show me the article. Thanks. She's talking about 2011 profits, not 2012 2011 profits were 50% higher than 2010. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/16/2011 Posts: 19 Location: kenya
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KENOLKOBIL TO ISSUE UPDATE ON CAUTIONARY STATEMENT DATED 8TH MAY 2012 Following several enquiries from shareholders and the general public with regard to the ongoing KenolKobil key shareholders’ acquisition by Puma Energy and the recent profit warning announcement, KenolKobil Ltd will issue an update on the Cautionary Statement issued last month. The update will provide progress details on the Due Diligence process by Puma Energy, Regulatory and CMA approvals, final price confirmation and the recent profit warning announcement. We expect to issue the update early next week. http://www.kenolkobil.co.../content/article/58/315
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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All I heard was 'final price confirmation' D-DAY! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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The temptation to add more of KeKe is very high 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwekez@ji wrote:The temptation to add more of KeKe is very high I hope CMA does not interfere with the share after announcement. LET IT BE! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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