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CENTUM FY 2012 40% down and no profit warning!
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hisah
#31 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 12:23:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
I couldn't help noticing the NAV is 20.57. Several undervalued real estate projects. Very promising prospects in the years to come. I like this company. The EPS dip is temporary(even if it will take two years to get back to fy 2011 EPS). For those serious, an opportunity to buy it on the cheap may be upon you.

Someone else also mentions the NAV and the market discounting it. The analysis covers centum, kapchorua teas, CIC and the KES esp USDKES expectations by Q4 2012.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao7dWGsz6Lk

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 12:25:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I couldn't help noticing the NAV is 20.57. Several undervalued real estate projects. Very promising prospects in the years to come. I like this company. The EPS dip is temporary(even if it will take two years to get back to fy 2011 EPS). For those serious, an opportunity to buy it on the cheap may be upon you.

Someone else also mentions the NAV and the market discounting it. The analysis covers centum, kapchorua teas, CIC and the KES esp USDKES expectations by Q4 2012.

I like Williamson & Kapchorua for the earning power. There is the 'land' as well but unless there are real buyers for all the land... it is not as valuable. With the PEV 2008, will farmers who are not Kalenjin (let's call a spade a spade) buy farms in RV?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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youcan'tstopusnow
#33 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 12:39:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Wow! 40%! No wonder @CentumInv dissapeared from Wazua! Of course Kirubi (and other top shareholders) knew about it. Similar to Uchumi where info is withheld from minority shareholders

Anyway, these guys may be planning a rights issue labda waliogopa the price would have seen a significant drop! And a further announcement of a nearly halving of EPS would surely see a further slide in the price. So they just figured they'll just do one announcement. The fine (if any) is not something that they wouldn't be able to deal with
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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youcan'tstopusnow
#34 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 12:46:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
They say that they have reduced exposure to the stock market but kumbuka:

-UAP is to list
-Longhorn has now listed (their stake now valued at around 400 million at 19.50)

You can't run away from the stock market as it provides a good arena for disposal and 'realisation of value. They bought Longhorn for 241 million in 2008

In fact, they do have stakes in a wide array of Private Equities which could list in future...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Aguytrying
#35 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 1:23:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I couldn't help noticing the NAV is 20.57. Several undervalued real estate projects. Very promising prospects in the years to come. I like this company. The EPS dip is temporary(even if it will take two years to get back to fy 2011 EPS). For those serious, an opportunity to buy it on the cheap may be upon you.
I am leery of valuing Real Estate at times.
1) What criteria used?
2) Is there a market for the land or is it a bubble?
3) See USA where it was all up, up & up then CRASH...


On the long term im also not so hot for real estate, its like a craze in this country. like prices will never come down, i dont believe that.
Investors forget very fast, in a proper bull people believe stocks will never come down also.
in short, you make a good point
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Ericsson
#36 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 1:34:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,811
Location: NAIROBI
And this year Centum is not issuing a bonus issue.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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youcan'tstopusnow
#37 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 2:07:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Ericsson wrote:
And this year Centum is not issuing a bonus issue.

No bonus. No dividend. RI soon?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Aguytrying
#38 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 2:47:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
And this year Centum is not issuing a bonus issue.

No bonus. No dividend. RI soon?


It harsh on the investors. But i understand the no dividend part, most of their profits are from valuations.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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youcan'tstopusnow
#39 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 2:52:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguytrying wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
And this year Centum is not issuing a bonus issue.

No bonus. No dividend. RI soon?


It harsh on the investors. But i understand the no dividend part, most of their profits are from valuations.

I think they had a 5 year policy of no dividend beginning 2009. But investors had held the 1 share for every 10 held bonus as almost customary...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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muganda
#40 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 3:21:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Quite disappointed that on speaking to an official of Centum Investments, they see nothing wrong in violating Capital Markets Act 2002 which in its Miscellaneous Obligations clearly requires Audit Committee to report:

CAP486 G05 (f) "material discrepancy" when earnings are at least 25% lower than the level of earnings in the previous financial year.


This occurred despite half-year 2011 results showing a decline of only 6%. So at this rate, one must wonder whether directors abide by other rules governing insider trading.
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