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Why I believe ERC is part of the cartel
2012
#1 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 9:25:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Simple mathematics:

When the shilling was @ 110 to 1$, fuel was @ 120 per litre
When the shilling was @ 83 to 1$, fuel was @ 121 per litre

Now what else can one conclude? It's obvious the oil companies hedged against the shilling, I would have hedged as well at that time, it makes sense but shouldn't erc come out and say that?

BBI will solve it
:)
Bachuma Gate
#2 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:06:14 AM
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Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 280
You should have given as the price of crude prices also
DOH
Lolest!
#3 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:22:37 AM
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Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Bachuma Gate wrote:
You should have given as the price of crude prices also

very crucial!
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Kausha
#4 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:31:08 AM
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Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I understand that fuel business very well, there are no cartels, what ERC did in it's stupidity is try and control a freely competitive industry. Oil marketers make a gross margin of about 9-11 bob, From this they give fuel station owners 2-3 bob. The balance of 6-9 bob is used to run the business, meet storage costs, admin overheads, profits and very importantly cost of financing. Look at the inventory of an oil company and for the big ones you will find them with between 6B-13B of inventory mostly financed by overdraft. What is slowing price declines is crude - which has began to fall and importantly cost of debt. Total has been making losses because of finance costs for debt used to buy Caltex. Let CBK drop the CRB to below 12 and at current crude and exchange rate and you will have your fuel at 90. In the meantime we forget the government is making about 60 per litre in Excise duty, VAT and Roads levy. The latter two I understand the Excise which is about 38bob per litre is immoral. Fuel is a luxury like booze and can't be avoided why does GoK treat it that way. Consumers meanwhile are so fixated on oil marketers, yet even if they gave up 5 bob it wouldn't improve our lot much and importantly they would shut down. GoK needs to give up at least 60% of that excise. And btw I am not employed in the fuel industry nor do I gain anything from it besides buying shares..
dunkang
#5 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:33:18 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2011
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I was about to agree with you on the issue, but i remembered am a Total Kenya shareholder whose share price has dropped by 50% at the NSE.

Reasons cited for Total Kenya loses include, the USD-KES, High Oil prices and HIGH FINANCING COST! (Interest rate are unimaginable)

Total Kenya argued out with ERC that the financing cost need to be included in the formulae, and since March 2012, it has been included.

I HOPE THAT EXPLAINS THE HIGH COST. I ALSO HOPE THAT MAKES SENSE!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Kausha
#6 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:33:30 AM
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Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
meant fuel is not a luxury like beer and can't be avoided!
Njung'e
#7 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:36:01 AM
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Location: Nairobi
I could be wrong but i would think that if the landing costs of crude dropped by 7.5%,the pump prices should have dropped by a similar margin and thus we would be at kindu Kshs 110 to a litre.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
dunkang
#8 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:37:46 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2011
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Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Njung'e wrote:
I could be wrong but i would think that if the landing costs of crude dropped by 7.5%,the pump prices should have dropped by a similar margin and thus we would be at kindu Kshs 110 to a litre.


FINANCING COSTS my good old friend. Financing Cost!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Ericsson
#9 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 10:50:36 AM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
Brent Crude oil is at $96 per barrel
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
2012
#10 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 11:25:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Bachuma Gate wrote:
You should have given as the price of crude prices also


So, do you believe that while the shilling went down by 27bob to the $ crude went up by the same margin?

BBI will solve it
:)
nakujua
#11 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 11:31:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 3,583
Location: Kenya
It all goes back to the government, if they really want the prices to drop they can; first of all by closing that refinery at the coast - and let marketers import refined products from whichever competitive source they get from.
Bachuma Gate
#12 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 11:46:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 280
2012 wrote:
Bachuma Gate wrote:
You should have given as the price of crude prices also


So, do you believe that while the shilling went down by 27bob to the $ crude went up by the same margin?


My thinking is that to determine whether the prices should have go up or down we needed to know the prices of the crude prevailing at those 2 points.
DOH
Ericsson
#13 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2012 11:52:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
The price should have been reduced by minimum ksh.10
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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