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Kenya Airways 2011/12 Financial Results
Aguytrying
#41 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 1:29:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'm shocked they've declared dividends. I was expecting them to hold onto that cash now that the rights got undersub... However dividend has been cut down by 1.25/- to 25cts from 1.50/-

Passengers aboard this stock are advised to fasten their seatbelts for the nosedive.


They've actually increased the dividend payout.

last year 1.5/7.65(eps)= 20% pay out

This year 0.25/1.11(eps)= 22.5% payout. ( new shares included) I think they are hoping this will save them.

@Aguy - I hadn't factored the new shares from the rights issue. Indeed an increment of the dividend payout! I don't understand this KQ management reasoning. They should hold on to cash and avoid debt financing for a while esp with the current high interest rates. Investors should vote down the dividend pay at the AGM. Also tough questions need to be asked to the management since it seems they're making more money from hedges than the business operations!


The management has simply lost it! I like something the CEO of emirates said about hedges and fuel bill. He concentrates on the business(which he knows very well) and leaves the hedges alone as they are complicated.
Add to the cocktail a potential 150-300m share float 10-20%, and its enough to have one scampering to the wood works.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 1:32:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#43 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:25:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
muganda
#44 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:27:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
On any given day, all young men aspire to fly. So it is a sad day when KQ mercilessly crashes and burns all here who chose to believe in its proud red emblem.

Time to move forward:
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator wrote:

Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.


youcan'tstopusnow
#45 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:30:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Funny how chaps go from grace to grass. 2 years back Naikuni was better than Jesus and every shareholder and his kittens was beaming. Now he's the Anti-Christ! Ama Naikuni was not C.E.O when KQ was at 65 bob?;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:35:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
Yes, they think so but the performance speaks otherwise!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#47 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:35:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
muganda, mimi biashara ya ndege huogopaSad
Mara volcanic from Iceland, etc. Plus the workers seem to hold a strike every year!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:37:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Funny how chaps go from grace to grass. 2 years back Naikuni was better than Jesus and every shareholder and his kittens was beaming. Now he's the Anti-Christ! Ama Naikuni was not C.E.O when KQ was at 65 bob?;-)
He lost the plot. When he started doing all sorts of interviews & stuff not related to the business. I was blinded too. Why is he on other boards? Look at Segman who runs one firm. KK. 100%.
Naikuni is on Access K & EAPCC. He was on CFC's prior to the restructuring.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#49 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:39:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
Yes, they think so but the performance speaks otherwise!

Do you know if he operates on a contract like KCB's Oduor?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:46:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
Yes, they think so but the performance speaks otherwise!
Do you know if he operates on a contract like KCB's Oduor?
What does MOO's contract say? How is it tied to performance?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#51 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:47:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Funny how chaps go from grace to grass. 2 years back Naikuni was better than Jesus and every shareholder and his kittens was beaming. Now he's the Anti-Christ! Ama Naikuni was not C.E.O when KQ was at 65 bob?;-)
He lost the plot. When he started doing all sorts of interviews & stuff not related to the business. I was blinded too. Why is he on other boards? Look at Segman who runs one firm. KK. 100%.
Naikuni is on Access K & EAPCC. He was on CFC's prior to the restructuring.

Is the EAPCC case still on? The malpractices there as reported by the media, stink! I wonder if he will stick around at KQ if they are found guilty. Of course these sort of cases drag on and on in court...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#52 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:52:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
I don't know if Oduor's contract has anything to do on performance. Just know it was extended for 2 years upto 2013
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
StatMeister
#53 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 2:59:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
Yes, they think so but the performance speaks otherwise!


I think he is running KQ (as an airline) just fine - profits where many airlines are failing.

Problem is that that airline is owned by shareholders, and his ability to deliver value to shareholders is just pathetic
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#54 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 3:05:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
StatMeister wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuyTrying - Yes, Tim Clark, brilliant CEO of Emirates said just that! He unlike the fool who purports to run KQ knows what he is doing.

KLM+GOK seems to think he's been doing just fine as they've stuck with him...
Yes, they think so but the performance speaks otherwise!

I think he is running KQ (as an airline) just fine - profits where many airlines are failing.

Problem is that that airline is owned by shareholders, and his ability to deliver value to shareholders is just pathetic
The recent Rights Issue is not designed to increase value for current shareholders but increase the fiefdom.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kausha
#55 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 4:31:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
You can average down the cost of shares of a good company with strong earning growth momentum but to average down on a 'wayward company' is tatamount to throwing good money after bad money. Chaps on KQ, here is free advice, sell your KQ's at 14 and buy ARM and in 2 years you will have recovered at least 50% of your KQ losses assuming you bought at 30. There is potential of recovering 100% of this loss as well. Otherwise average KQ down and you will find yourself swelling your losses.

I posit that KQ has been buying revenue (market share) in Africa and some European routes and this is coming back to bite. How is it that KQ opens routes, gets additional revenue but operating costs increase more than the revenue increases. Also at 60% OTP, the products must be poor quality. Why open routes that don't make money and desecrate the existing good products, surely OTP has to be 95% and above. Why doesn't Titus also show the OTP of EK, LH etc..

It's cheap politics to compare KQ's sums to those of EK, AF/KL, SQ, LH. These airlines ply routes more competitive and with serious substitute products (ryanair, Easy-j, Kingfisher, air asia etc). Their pricing is capped. Compare that to KQ's largely uncapped pricing who charge immoral charges in African routes. Africa makes up 55% of KQ revenue( NBO - ENBE - $500+, NBO - Kinshasa - $ 1,000 etc). If KQ was competing with these companies they would have sold the HQ piece of land a long time ago having left the airline business. KQ is doing business in a niche market - africa but that will soon disappear.

The results suggest KQ profits are largely accounting and from treasury operations. The currency movement of 11% for a 1.5% suggest that with a stable currency KQ would probably have made a sizeable loss. At least 95% of KQ revenue is dollarized while only fuel and fleet ownership costs on the costs side are in dollars. On net basis, KQ made about 6B from accounting conventions. Add to that 2.5B from unwinding of fuel hedges and the 0.5B from PW then it's obvious KQ would easily have been in the red by more than 5B. The ROE is also equally appalling, dropping to 7% from 15%. I will await a surprise from Dr T on this because I don't see anything good coming from this.
youcan'tstopusnow
#56 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 4:59:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
KQ plans to build a 5 star hotel.
http://www.theeastafrica.../-/13l4ioi/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
hisah
#57 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 5:20:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:

What next? Build its own airplanes?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
MaichBlack
#58 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 5:33:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
hisah wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:

What next? Build its own airplanes?
Buy land at Ngamia 1 or Ngamia 2, 3, 4, etc.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Aguytrying
#59 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 5:43:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Wouldn't it be easier and more cost effective to make the system more reliable to reduce delays Than to build hotels for customers
(my pedestrian thinking)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
QW25091985
#60 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2012 5:47:35 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
WTF !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how is this ? 50% recline in profits isnt a good thing !
what went wrong ! nkt .
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