Time will tell whether this will have a negative impact on housing development in Kenya. I personally think it will.
1. A good number of investors in this sector have bought property to rent. Imagine buying 2-2 bed flats at 9m. You get rent of 15K*2=30K less tax @30%. Is it worth investing 9million to end up with 20K per month ?. I see people rather putting their monies in other investment eg T/Bills etc where even with a rate of 9%, you are likely to end up with more than 50k pm.
2. People who still want to invest in properties will prefer areas where it is difficult for the tax man to touch them. So I am seeing more of mlolongo type of houses more than the elegant apartments coming up in Eastlands.
3. That rate of 30% is high. It should be graduated like PAYE but at lower rates to encouraged investment in this sector or even zoned. The pricing of flats/houses in Lavi, Kile, Runda is such that the investors may be able to pay tax but with rents of 5-28K in Eastlands, Ronga, Kitengela, Busia, Nyeri, Nakuru and other kenyan towns, I foresee alot of issues.
4. If you borrow to buy a flat and then rent which majority do. Where does this leave you with the tax thing. The INTEREST that you pay the banks on 4.6m is well over 60K pm @20% interest. Yet your rental income is 15-18k. It is not much different when you borrow to build flat(s).
5. Most likely landlords will pass this tax to tenants. If you stay in middle class areas eg Langata, South B, Jamhuri, prepare to consider moving to Ronga, Kasarani, Eastlands, Kite etc
DOH