wazua Sun, Jan 19, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

3 Pages<123
KCB Group Q1 2012 PAT up 35%
QW25091985
#41 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 11:25:21 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
what puzzles me is the strong and consistent demand for kcb even after going ex dividend. we saw this phenomenon with safcom last yr and equity. all i know is that it cant last forever.


The variables are not the same in 2012 as in 2011..



its called accumulation or distribution depending on the TREND of the market . and since we are in a bullish market i would believe its accumulation !
mwekez@ji
#42 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 1:02:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Lets compare KCB and HF

KCB 3yr high; 27 (Current price 23)
HF 3 yr high; 30 (current price 15)

KCB Net Book Value; 13 (P/B; 1.8)
HF Net Book Value; 20.25 (P/B; 0.75)

KCB PER; 6.2
HF PER; 5.6

Synergy; S&L and KCB
Synergy; HF and Equity Bank

Conclusion: HF is a BUY now. For KCB, wake me up when foreigners are done buying, my strategy remains buy low sell high and foreigners have already pushed KCB close to the 3 yr high.



What exactly is the synergy between Equity and HF?? I dont see HF having access to equitys client list.. And last time i checked equity had its own mortgage dept..

Btw KCB Book value is 16 & not 13 as stated above..

I noticed you did not compare dividend yields??

Oh yeah FYI past research has shown the best decisions on the NSE are made by foreign investors and the worst are usually made by locals... smile


Equity owns a quarter of HF. Their relationship is for mutual benefit

On Net Book Value, I chose to go with the audited accounts. However, if you want us to go by Q1 results, remove the dividend coz its gonna be paid in a few days and you get Net Book Value of 14.15 (P/B; 1.6). HF beats KCB hands down on that metric.

On Dividend Yield, Still HF leads
KCB; 8%
HF; 11%

In most times, I buy when foreigners are away and sell to them when they come back. Have done it a couple of times with KeKe and am doing it again with Puma smile
guru267
#43 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 2:10:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:


On Dividend Yield, Still HF leads
KCB; 8%
HF; 11%


Where are you cooking these figures from??

HF paid 1.2bob in 2011.. at current prices that is a dividend yield of 7.8%..

KCB beats HF there!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
young
#44 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 2:30:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
With all these info HF has caught my attention to accumulate some fdor the long term.
It is just now I realise that they pay interims and they have surpassed my thresh hold test of 5% minimum dividend yield.

Thanks all for this info, I have not been looking closely on HF.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
sparkly
#45 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 3:04:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Aguytrying wrote:
what puzzles me is the strong and consistent demand for kcb even after going ex dividend. we saw this phenomenon with safcom last yr and equity. all i know is that it cant last forever.


Shows that the prospects for 2012 may be better than 2011.

Payment of a dividend should ideally not affect the price of the share IMO.

In fact i usually buy ex-div and sell cum-div. That way i get to milk the div without paying the WHT of 5% on the div. Downside is that i have to pay the selling commission.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#46 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 4:27:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
what puzzles me is the strong and consistent demand for kcb even after going ex dividend. we saw this phenomenon with safcom last yr and equity. all i know is that it cant last forever.


Shows that the prospects for 2012 may be better than 2011.

Payment of a dividend should ideally not affect the price of the share IMO.

In fact i usually buy ex-div and sell cum-div. That way i get to milk the div without paying the WHT of 5% on the div. Downside is that i have to pay the selling commission.


@sparkly. and the 2% for buying back. equity and saf rallied past cum div price. quite perculiar .
@guru. the question we have to ask ourselves is, what effect will elections have on kcb?
@mwekezaji. the same foreigners buying like crazy now are the same ones who sold kcb like crazy last year pushing it to 15.00, ill wait for them.
its unbelievable that kcb is at a pe of 6.0, im waiting for the irrationality for my entry.
the pedulum always swings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#47 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 5:49:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:

@guru. the question we have to ask ourselves is, what effect will elections have on kcb?


What makes investors think anything will happen at the elections.. I think it will go the same way as the referendum due to changes in policy and the lack of an incumbent re running.. (site also the 2002 elections)

Aguytrying wrote:
its unbelievable that kcb is at a pe of 6.0, im waiting for the irrationality for my entry.
the pedulum always swings.


Does it get more irrational than a P/E of 6 for kenyas largest bank with double digit profit growth..

When it fell to 15 in 2011 it also had a P/E of 6 so what are you waiting for??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#48 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 6:05:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@guru - I also expect (95%) things to proceed like 2002. And I hope this time round things hold together for the whole term for whoever comes in. So the best buying time should be Dec 2012 - Feb 2013. And I hope CBR will still be sky high. So that once CBK start smashing it down (remember Mwiraria cash reserve gimmick back in 2003/2004) should work out some serious stock rally magic at the NSE. Also by then KE will have known if the oil depos are commercially viable. This I'm sure they are from the deal flows outside KE smile

@mainat can confirm this smile

https://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2004/ken/ - I foresee something similar to this IMF report back in 2004.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#49 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 6:10:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@guru, fat fingers on the dividend yield

@young, HF is a valuable diamond in the rough

@aguytrying @hisah, I agree with you on waiting for ROAR to reverse especially when the foreigners are done with their buying spree and/or when they are spooked to sell off
Aguytrying
#50 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 6:16:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:

@guru. the question we have to ask ourselves is, what effect will elections have on kcb?


What makes investors think anything will happen at the elections.. I think it will go the same way as the referendum due to changes in policy and the lack of an incumbent re running.. (site also the 2002 elections)

Aguytrying wrote:
its unbelievable that kcb is at a pe of 6.0, im waiting for the irrationality for my entry.
the pedulum always swings.


Does it get more irrational than a P/E of 6 for kenyas largest bank with double digit profit growth..

When it fell to 15 in 2011 it also had a P/E of 6 so what are you waiting for??


I know, its mind boggling the value here.
I also expect elections to go referendum way, the way you've said.
That said i also expect the market to get spooked between now and then.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#51 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 6:27:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
@aguytrying @hisah, I agree with you on waiting for ROAR to reverse especially when the foreigners are done with their buying spree and/or when they are spooked to sell off


If an investor feels a stock or property is cheap at current levels why expect that stock or property to become cheaper at a later date??

Investors are being offered P/Es of 4-6 on stocks but they are fighting for P/Es of 2-4.. Sad

My only advice is to Ask all those wazuans who were sitting back waiting for KeKe to fall back to 9bob just because that happened in 2011 how they must feel right now.. That waru must really be soar...

If I feel a stock is cheap i buy.. I would rather deal with paper losses than deal with the pain of missing a rally..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#52 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 8:15:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Guru I wish you were hyping Jubilee & Kenya Power the same way you are hyping KCB maybe YBC will come back....
Users browsing this topic
Guest (12)
3 Pages<123
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.