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Kenya power
the deal
#21 Posted : Tuesday, June 05, 2012 8:13:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
-d Laughing out loudly YBC left stocks to play gold..now that Gold is not doing well...he might be back...KP used to have a massive following on Wazua but ever since the rights issue the stocks supporters have gone underground....I remember someone selling KK to KP....
Ali Baba
#22 Posted : Tuesday, June 05, 2012 8:20:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
KP is a good stock,but concerns linger since KP is a parastatal where corrupt "vultures" in the name of politicians have big say.....
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Tuesday, June 05, 2012 10:22:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
speculator wrote:
itz wrote:
i remember when they had that rights issue and the pps was at 23-24,there is a guy who use to say it would go to about 16.I was of the same opinion but this drop to 14 is a bit extreme.I believe part of the reason is the regulators have refused for kplc to increase its tariffs for the last 2 years.Utilities(kengen,tcl,kplc) are boring stocks good for dividends and long term play because of the fact that they are very capital intensive businesses.Buy kplc and put it in your retirement account.you will be very happy later

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Yes that guy was YARSERBIGCHAIR. We called him names, asked him to prove that KP would touch 16. I cant believe now even 12 is a possibility. Btw still waiting for his list to buy.
He was talking of it in the IMMEDIATE aftermath of the Rights Issue. That was not the case. Lots of water under the bridge since including sky-high oil prices, high interest rates, etc.

Even KenolKobil dropped from 110/- to 60/- (pre-split) then went up to 12/- then back to 8/- but slowly inched up to 12/-

For YBC, the question was of time-frames not absolute numbers, which can be meaningless...

BTW, KPLC gave a bonus since the Rights Issue
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#24 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2012 9:36:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.

It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%.
No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
slykat
#25 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 1:01:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
Aguytrying wrote:
If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.

It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%.
No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events.


The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising.

Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP?
Aguytrying
#26 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 9:18:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
slykat wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.

It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%.
No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events.


The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising.

Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP?


You bring a good point. If there was such a reason, only top management and sources privy to them would know.
Could it be the fact it is a parastatal and this is an election year?
Could it be the fact that Mr Market is irrational as he most frequently is? Im hoping so.
It might well be the new dividend policy, small dividends and a bonus?
Assuming no ill wind is sweeping through the company(we have no evidence to suspect this), KPLC is undervalued.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Impunity
#27 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 9:43:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
VituVingiSana wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
what is happening with Kenya power? The stock price keeps on falling


And they have doubled both the standing charges and VAT amount and no one is seeing all these rip-off!
Brick wall Brick wall Brick wall

Fixed charge = 240 (up from 120)
VAT (28 up from 14)
The 240/- is for 2 months. They combined the billing. VAT is set by GoK as a %. KPLC gets nothing from it.


Thanks for clarification @VVS.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Metasploit
#28 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 10:12:39 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
slykat wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
If one ever wanted KPLC in their portfolio, this would be the time to buy.

It has been beaten down by the market, it is at the same levels as it was during the bear that has seen several stocks appreciate >50%.
No one can tell for sure how low it will go, but i think its the right time to buy, not much downside expected assuming no major adverse events.


The question is; why is it beaten down? I learnt to temper my risk with an appreciation of the fact that the market often has a reason for punishing blue chip stocks, when others are rising.

Sometimes you don't know why, you buy and then the reason becomes public knowledge and by then it's too late. Eg. Once vibrant KenGen is yet to recover. So why is the mkt hating on KP?


You bring a good point. If there was such a reason, only top management and sources privy to them would know.
Could it be the fact it is a parastatal and this is an election year?
Could it be the fact that Mr Market is irrational as he most frequently is? Im hoping so.
It might well be the new dividend policy, small dividends and a bonus?
Assuming no ill wind is sweeping through the company(we have no evidence to suspect this), KPLC is undervalued.


Just seen that foreign participation on this counter has been low from may.Gleaning the columes,you will discover that most of the volumes bought and sold are small and from local small scalers.
Dont have time to put this in graphical but see the volumes as below;Supply is always twice the demand.I am waiting for 13.80 or 13.5

Demand Supply
291,000 625,600 10 May
178,500 224,900 11 May
65,500 321,200 12 May
214,800 249,300 13 May
1,597,100 1,743,000 17 May
470,200 646,400 18 May
237,800 334,900 21 May
350,100 129,400 23 May
1,027,100 1,041,400 24 May
359,900 607,400 25 May
535,300 943,400 30 May
496,400 845,800 31 May
270,100 766,900 4 May
283,800 795,100 5 May
129,700 757,600 6 May
116,000 622,000 Today 10.00


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Metasploit
#29 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 10:14:24 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Aguytrying
#30 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2012 11:34:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Metaspoilt. I believe there has been silent accumulation in this counter.
I say this because of the trades occurring between 13.85-14.50. You will notice that the heavy supply "hangs" high and is rarely ever heavy near where the demand , there seems to be hidden demand that sweeps supply even when it looks like theres no demand. And large trades occur with the supply never really coming down to meet the demand. Meaning its being mopped up faster than it can come down/or when it comes down. Akin to something we saw with kenolkobil at 9.00 though less marked and not as obvious. I believe this 13.80-14.00 is the support. should it fall further a new pattern may emerge.
but from 14-16. this share is still a bargain.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#31 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 6:29:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
In truth when a share is beaten down there are no takers, no talking about it. But when a stock jumps 10% like 3 different threads occur, it human nature anyway.

KPLC has gone back to the 15.00 level, clearly the 2nd last support with 14.00 being the last support.

The financial year ended on june 30th, but we'll have to wait till oct/sept for results. I hope they maintain their 10-15%(maintainable) growth trajectory.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#32 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 6:47:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus
Aguytrying
#33 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 8:03:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus


I've thought about that, actually smile thanks for asking. My estimate is 1:10 to 1:8 for the next 2 years. There was Around 600,000 shares un-issued left after 2011 bonus issue. They gave around 300,000 shares last time with the 1:8.
So I am estimating 300,000 shares bonus issue per year for two years that this year 2012, and next year 2013. which gives 1:8 to 1:10
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#34 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 8:08:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Oh and a paltry dividend of course. but they may up it from 0.10 of last year to reduce the shame. ha ha. Maybe its why they reduced the interim to 0.20(from 0.35)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
PKoli
#35 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 9:19:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
KP should be trading in the 20s. Sooner or later, the stock will start rising even without foreign investors supporting the stock. Remember, there was a time few foreigners were participating in ARM.
PKoli
#36 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 9:22:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
KP should be trading in the 20s. Sooner or later, the stock will start rising even without foreign investors supporting the stock. Remember, there was a time few foreigners were participating in ARM.
youcan'tstopusnow
#37 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 9:48:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kenya Power monopoly at risk? New distributors could be given licences.

Source: KTN Business
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
PKoli
#38 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 10:06:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Kenya Power monopoly at risk? New distributors could be given licences.

Source: KTN Business


This will take a bit of time. Unbundling started with generation and up to now we have very few players.
mwekez@ji
#39 Posted : Friday, July 06, 2012 9:02:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Aguytrying et al, what do you see as the corporate action come year end. Last year they stunned by giving a miniature final dividend of KES 0.10 and controversial 1:8 bonus


I've thought about that, actually smile thanks for asking. My estimate is 1:10 to 1:8 for the next 2 years. There was Around 600,000 shares un-issued left after 2011 bonus issue. They gave around 300,000 shares last time with the 1:8.
So I am estimating 300,000 shares bonus issue per year for two years that this year 2012, and next year 2013. which gives 1:8 to 1:10


I honestly dont think that is a corporate action to look forward to. The bonus will hurt share price. Look at what @young is saying about such action in stanbic uganda.

If they raise the paltry final dividend by 100%, one gets KES 0.20 per share which is a mere 1.3% yield at the current price of KES 15.15. I see most wazuans led by @stocksmaster are targeting 10% yield

We, or rather I, can there conclude that on matter relating to corporate action, KP scores poorly.

What then makes KP 'a buy'? Genghis Capital has rated this company a buy with a target price of KES 22
Aguytrying
#40 Posted : Friday, July 06, 2012 11:27:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mwekezaji. Kp is not a buy because of dividend. Its because it is grossly undervalued. P/e below 6. Ur right about the bonus issue weighing down on the stock price esp because the bonus yield is almost equal to annual profit growth. A cancelling effect in the end. But share still undervalued and with dilution of eps comes more shares. So a less marked rise in pe in future still gives adequate returns.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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