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Longhorn Listing
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guru267
#51 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 8:05:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?


You said it would follow the path of TCL.. I find it unlikely LONHORN will lose more than 50% of its value post listing..

TCL, BRIT, FCBK are tanking because of crazy PE ratios.. That is something longhorn lacks...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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youcan'tstopusnow
#52 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 8:57:43 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, that (low PE) may well change when they release their next set of results. Read VVS' post at the top of this page
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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WWW
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VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 10:36:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?
Revenue in 2011 vs 2012 was 2x. The PAT was 5x. Much higher bar there.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mwekez@ji
#54 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:43:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?
Revenue in 2011 vs 2012 was 2x. The PAT was 5x. Much higher bar there.


Unsustainable income!

Material contracts (page 61 of IM)

*Contract between the Company and the National Curriculum Development Centre (NCDC) in Rwanda for the supply of textbooks and supplementary materials to the NCDC for a total of RWF 1,591,969,394 (KES 230,720,202 @RWF/KES - 6.9)

*... others
.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 31, 2012 12:44 AM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#55 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:43:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:58:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#57 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 12:07:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!


Not that i would touch a publisher.. I was merely pointing out that it will probably not pull a TCL..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji
#58 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 12:15:16 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@guru, if earnings fall to previous year level:

EPS; 0.37 (21,621,000/58,500,000)

PE: 37.8!!! (14/0.37)
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VituVingiSana
#59 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:43:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
How do you delete a post?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:49 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:49:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!

Not that i would touch a publisher.. I was merely pointing out that it will probably not pull a TCL..
Sawa but unlike you ("adequate margin of safety" at a PER of 15) I would not encourage anyone to buy at 15/- or 14/- or even 12/- until I see audited results for FY 2011-12.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:51 AM | Reason: Not specified
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