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Safaricom FY 2012 results announcement
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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hisah wrote:dunkang wrote:Thats why we call him Con-me-more, he thinks we won't see! But how do you expalin this; total demand 12,688,500 331,200 total supply This thing will be bid since the profit is far better than what the market expected. I was expecting PAT to dip to 9B. At 12.63B that a shocker for me. A number of investment house will see the same and are due to revise their forecast models. With high inflation, tight liquidity & price wars in H2 that tariff was not meant to achieve much. But the results of H2 tell a solid rebound story. I'd be concerned as their competitor since dropping the price war will signal surrender. The risk boomerang is coming back at competition in full force...
So I expect the price to edge higher as well as the 3.30 - 3.40 resistance chart level is now broken.
As a trader I'd target 3.80 - 4.00 assuming you got in at 3.00.
I expected a larger dip in profits too so better than expected results. But for me, if i had Safcom in my portfolio (which i don't), i would lighten my holding. It seems the profitability has stagnated for the last two years. The current price of Ksh 3.45 gives an EPS of 10.8 and a dividend yield of 6.35%. Compared to other shares in the NSE, this looks expensive. However, Safcom via its MPESA product seems to have captured the attention of foreign investors who may provide some upside potential to the share. Without this hype, i would value Safcom at a price of between Ksh 2.60 - 2.80. Happy Hunting
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2010 Posts: 511 Location: kandara, Murang'a
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@stockmaster, speak we all ears.. Foresight..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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stocksmaster wrote:hisah wrote:dunkang wrote:Thats why we call him Con-me-more, he thinks we won't see! But how do you expalin this; total demand 12,688,500 331,200 total supply This thing will be bid since the profit is far better than what the market expected. I was expecting PAT to dip to 9B. At 12.63B that a shocker for me. A number of investment house will see the same and are due to revise their forecast models. With high inflation, tight liquidity & price wars in H2 that tariff was not meant to achieve much. But the results of H2 tell a solid rebound story. I'd be concerned as their competitor since dropping the price war will signal surrender. The risk boomerang is coming back at competition in full force...
So I expect the price to edge higher as well as the 3.30 - 3.40 resistance chart level is now broken.
As a trader I'd target 3.80 - 4.00 assuming you got in at 3.00.
I expected a larger dip in profits too so better than expected results. But for me, if i had Safcom in my portfolio (which i don't), i would lighten my holding. It seems the profitability has stagnated for the last two years. The current price of Ksh 3.45 gives an EPS of 10.8 and a dividend yield of 6.35%. Compared to other shares in the NSE, this looks expensive. However, Safcom via its MPESA product seems to have captured the attention of foreign investors who may provide some upside potential to the share. Without this hype, i would value Safcom at a price of between Ksh 2.60 - 2.80. Happy Hunting As long as the cash cow called MPESA is the market dominant the share is worth every cent. Here is bob "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Further interview... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxqCVII5N8k$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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QW25091985 wrote:QW25091985 wrote:what . so soon . i have bought a bucket load of this thingy. so bob con me more better have done his homeworks and presents good results otherwise i'll beat him up untill he grows rasta on this head bob Marley would die for !  and the thingy is off the stables .HUGE DEMAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Haiya! Kwani excitement iliisha?  GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW25091985 wrote:QW25091985 wrote:what . so soon . i have bought a bucket load of this thingy. so bob con me more better have done his homeworks and presents good results otherwise i'll beat him up untill he grows rasta on this head bob Marley would die for ! and the thingy is off the stables .HUGE DEMAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Haiya! Kwani excitement iliisha? uhhh ? umeona results . amatu umeskia kutoka kwa jirani ? i was expecting another loss !
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/14/2009 Posts: 66
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Quote:Haiya! Kwani excitement iliisha? May be imemalizwa na hii: Mobile termination rate to go down-CCK http://www.capitalfm.co....ates-to-go-down-in-july/
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/19/2010 Posts: 237 Location: Republic of Graham & Doddsville
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Point of correction... @Stocksmaster said, "The current price of Ksh 3.45 gives an EPS of 10.8 and a dividend yield of 6.35%." I think u meant to say a PE of 10.8... coz as it's an EPS of 10.8 would give u an outrageous PE of 0.32!!! Which BTW is the current EPS. We Will Either Find a Way or Create One - HANNIBAL
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=mtotana] Quote:Haiya! Kwani excitement iliisha? May be imemalizwa na hii: Mobile termination rate to go down-CCK http://www.capitalfm.co....tes-to-go-down-in-july/[/quote] Maybe not...
Read... This was last week - http://mobile.businessda.../-/63knbkz/-/index.html
I am still wondering how this elephant pulled off that H2 incredible recovery to the point of even awarding a 10% dividend hike!
I seem not to be able to get the figures working out even after factoring the 33% tariff hike and the KES strong recovery by CBK's manipulation (eh intervention  )
My head hurts  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interesting to note that since the elephant was listed, it has always been lagging the NSE index with the exception period being Nov 2009 - June 2010. Definitely this share was over priced during the IPO. In H2 2010 the 2nd round of price war also threw in another spanner in the works. However, it is interesting to note that when the price starts to recover, the index (NSE) usually has bounced ahead. And when its price outruns the index, the index turns bullish for that period and vice versa when it spans down... Could this stock price be used as a leading indicator? Hmmm....   $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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October will determine if the elephant will sustain the bid side or resume the sell side. http://allafrica.com/stories/201205170025.html Quote:Speaking during a media open day forum, Acting Director General Francis Wangusi said the delay comes after KIPPRA asked for more time to carry out a comprehensive study.
"The company that we awarded to carry out the tender has asked for 12 weeks, and because 12 weeks has surpassed July, we will be able to make that determination in October," Wangusi said.
At the same time CCK Competition, Tariffs and Market Analysis Director, Matano Ndaro said the study may not change much of the already given facts about the telecoms sectors, adding that the whole situation about the terminations rates is being politicised.
He added that if the rates remain high, the small mobile operators will continue being oppressed by the dominant operators, as the latters' subscribers fear to call subscribers from the smaller operators due to higher calling charges.
"The only disadvantage is to the bigger operator, because lower MTRs make the services of those smaller operators more competitive, and they take away market share from the bigger operator," Ndaro explained. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Hmmm... Could the elephant be planning what Vodacom is attempting in SA. I remember Collymore mentioned something like this in a recent BD article. Vodacom gets a licence to sell insurance - http://bit.ly/u3mJMK Since CIC is the only micro-insurance firm in KE at the moment does that mean they'd be partnering... Just thinking aloud. If that is the case then CIC should be a hot stock soon! Quote:Vodacom has secured a licence from the Financial Services Board (FSB) to begin selling insurance products directly to its customers as it seeks to broaden its portfolio and expand its revenue streams in a maturing mobile market. Vodacom finally lifts lid on insurance play - http://bit.ly/IVFZRs
Quote:Would you like some insurance with your broadband bundle?
Six months after TechCentral revealed in December 2011 that the company intended to get into the insurance game, Vodacom has finally provided a few details about its plans after it was awarded short- and long-term insurance licences by the Financial Services Board that allow it to underwrite and sell insurance products. And the mother of all... wait for it... Quote:In an interview with TechCentral in May, Vodacom Group CEO Pieter Uys said the company might even seek its own banking licence from SA regulators if its M-Pesa mobile payments system takes off in the way it expects it will in the next few years. So, will the elephant also go the same way i.e. insurance plus banking since Mpesa is already a success in KE unlike in SA where it is just beginning? Let the debate begin  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The KE telco sector is as murky as it gets. But with a more murky CCK, it's not shocking. So now after Orange asks for a bailout, Yu too is on the same path... http://www.businessdaily...4/-/5it7ayz/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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The whole issue boils up to trying to copy paste indian models into kenya, we dont have the numbers, it just cant work here and make reasonable returns for investors.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/17/2009 Posts: 3,583 Location: Kenya
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Jamani wrote:The whole issue boils up to trying to copy paste indian models into kenya, we dont have the numbers, it just cant work here and make reasonable returns for investors. I don't think its because of the numbers, its just that safaricom is far too dominant in Kenya - for reasons best know to Kenyans, that getting a part of the share becomes too hard, unless safaricom mess up big time.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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@ Nakujua.... Well you might have half a point but numbers make money on volumes thereby guaranteeing return on investments. I still insist the indian price cutting models cant work due to numbers..... and if they do we shall lag behind in technological advancement in the telecommunication sector. Read no advancement to LTE, poor QoS, no roll-out, no NWK growth, no return to investors, no taxes to govt, poor compensation or firing of employees.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Well, no-one can force Safaricom to follow the minute factory model... Let them do what is best for them & customers have a choice too! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/18/2008 Posts: 796
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nakujua wrote:Jamani wrote:The whole issue boils up to trying to copy paste indian models into kenya, we dont have the numbers, it just cant work here and make reasonable returns for investors. I don't think its because of the numbers, its just that safaricom is far too dominant in Kenya - for reasons best know to Kenyans, that getting a part of the share becomes too hard, unless safaricom mess up big time. Exactly what has Safaricom done to prevent the Indians and the Frenchmen from returning profits.. absolutely nothing.. Kenya now has the lowest Interconnect rates in Africa.. yet people making profits in other countries.. ALL the other providers have cheaper voice rates than Safcom.. so they can't even claim undercutting in terms of price.. Methinks its just a case of incompetent managers copy pasting useless models (that are now losing them money even in India)... those models can only work if Kenyans zaana like rabbits tufikishe population ya India (1B)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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