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Target for 2014 100%, 150%, 200%?
Aguytrying
#1 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 10:22:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I looking to double my money by 2014, helped by the expected low share prices that normally occurs before elections(or has it already occurred?)
and the correction expected thereafter. not to mention the very bright economic growth prospects of various sectors.

My question is: Is 100% too small a target?
This is a once in 5 yr opportunity maybe even more with all the macro-economic factors and uncertainty in Europe debt. This could be a period of good luck/fortune to the wise investors.
I feel like i should be targeting more. say 150-200%.
Take Uchumi stock for example 160% odd percent gain from nowhere. It makes me think i should aim higher towards 2014.
Which stocks are able/likely to pull this off(if any) by 2014.

regards.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:50:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
These are just some of the opportunities on the NSE...

KCB.. 2012 price = 23bob.. 2014 price = 78bob.. A 263% increase

Kenya re.. 2012 price = 12.75bob.. 2014 price = 51bob.. A 300% increase

BAT.. 2012 price = 333bob.. 2014 price = 950bob.. A 180% increase...

IMHO... smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:26:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, I see your love affair with Kenya-RE is back on. Jubilee will not be pleased;-)

Aguytrying, I honestly don't think you are being unrealistic. The scope for growth is huge. Keep an eye on companies with Pan-African ambitions...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 6:35:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
guru, I see your love affair with Kenya-RE is back on. Jubilee will not be pleased;-)


@youcant im just trying to be obejective...

Jub has a P/E of 6 and a price/book of 1.75

Kenya Re has a P/E of 4 and a price/book of 0.66

With Kenya Re's stellar fundamentals, improving management, rebranding, and growing profits I wouldnt mind including it in my portfolio alongside jubilee...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:52:31 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
I would go with Kengen 8.50 to 21 half-year growth in profits 30% before power tariff review and commissioning of new power plants

NIC post rights 25.75 to 62/= EPS has more than doubled in last three years so in 2014 with EPS 11 and P/E of 8=88

Mumias likely to go back to 13 in 2014 and KCB 60/= My 2cents
the deal
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 9:05:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I see a lot of wet dreams on this thread...I see the Uchumi take off has driven people insaneLaughing out loudly
sparkly
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 10:37:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
We are firmly in the saddle, riding the bull. Super exuberance!
Life is short. Live passionately.
Cde Monomotapa
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:33:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:18:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Thanks all. I see the next years as a huge opportunity for tremendous capital gains.

I've also looked at KCB.current pe 3.72. with only 2 years of 20%(very modest estimate) growth pe should be at 5.4. with a PE of 10 = 54.00. Around 150% gain. I like.

The deal just make fun, there are hidden gems somewhere. just need to find them.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:25:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:

I've also looked at KCB.current eps 3.72. with only 2 years of 20%(very modest estimate) growth eps should be at 5.4. with a PE of 10 = 54.00. Around 150% gain. I like.


Very modest estimates indeed.. The out going Chairman Muthoka claims 2012 eps will be around 5.2 (40% growth from 3.72)...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:52:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
These are just some of the opportunities on the NSE...

KCB.. 2012 price = 23bob.. 2014 price = 78bob.. A 263% increase

Kenya re.. 2012 price = 12.75bob.. 2014 price = 51bob.. A 300% increase

BAT.. 2012 price = 333bob.. 2014 price = 950bob.. A 180% increase...

IMHO... smile


love your optimism!! Btw KCB is very likely to hit at least 60.00.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#12 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:57:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:

I've also looked at KCB.current eps 3.72. with only 2 years of 20%(very modest estimate) growth eps should be at 5.4. with a PE of 10 = 54.00. Around 150% gain. I like.


Very modest estimates indeed.. The out going Chairman Muthoka claims 2012 eps will be around 5.2 (40% growth from 3.72)...



yeah i rem. and dividend was to increase by a generous amount also. ok lets say 27.5% annualized for the two 2yrs. wow eps of 6.1. amazing!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mkonomtupu
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 2:16:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
when you think about it wazua does give a lot of free information that your broker will never give you... well until it's too late. amazing!
Aguytrying
#14 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 2:54:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mkonomtupu wrote:
when you think about it wazua does give a lot of free information that your broker will never give you... well until it's too late. amazing!


Ive seen your track record, you are one of the heavy weights here... uchumi, NIC and now Kengen. keep them coming

My 150% targets do not look so far fetched now.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
S.Mutaga III
#15 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 3:05:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
It will be harder to make money this year in stocks than it was last year. I give myself a target of 75%. 100% is a bit unrealistic considering that most wazuans invest in a number of counters.Let me show you how hard it is.If you invest in four counters and three of them gain 120% each and the fourth one stays flat,considering that you allocated capital in equal proportions, your net gain is 90%.It is still far from 100%.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
FOsiemo10M
#16 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 3:18:33 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/5/2013
Posts: 66
- Penny stocks

-Buy huge volumes
youcan'tstopusnow
#17 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 4:38:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguytrying wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
when you think about it wazua does give a lot of free information that your broker will never give you... well until it's too late. amazing!


Ive seen your track record, you are one of the heavy weights here... uchumi, NIC and now Kengen. keep them coming

My 150% targets do not look so far fetched now.


Spot on! Na 2014 bado. There's no telling what the market will have in store for us after a peaceful election...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#18 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 4:57:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
when you think about it wazua does give a lot of free information that your broker will never give you... well until it's too late. amazing!


Ive seen your track record, you are one of the heavy weights here... uchumi, NIC and now Kengen. keep them coming

My 150% targets do not look so far fetched now.


Spot on! Na 2014 bado. There's no telling what the market will have in store for us after a peaceful election...

Amen...
Mukiri
#19 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 5:08:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
FUNKY wrote:
Is Transcentury the next mbus to explode ?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/2xo4xqz/-/index.html


This might just be the answer, ama?

Proverbs 19:21
Cde Monomotapa
#20 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 5:12:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Btw, guys have you thought when we X-over elections & get back to work proper, will we have a new normal? Say the Index hits 6K quick & we sell then the mkt never sees even 5K but goes to 8K? Si tutabaki ma-lights? Or we'll cross that bridge later?
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