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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:@deal - Are you counting the waves... Wave 5 likely to test 3900 - 4000 around August - Sept 2012 then the cool off till 2013 after the elections.  I wish you labelled those waves for the blind to see...I'm currently loading Insurance stocks...from PAI...JUB...CFCI....if you can't beat the market buy an insurance stock!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2010 Posts: 176
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:@deal - Are you counting the waves... Wave 5 likely to test 3900 - 4000 around August - Sept 2012 then the cool off till 2013 after the elections. I wish you labelled those waves for the blind to see...I'm currently loading Insurance stocks...from PAI...JUB...CFCI....if you can't beat the market buy an insurance stock!!! And that wave 5 might be reaching point D of the ABCD correction on the 10 year chart.Once it hits 3800 i will be looking to get out of short term holdings  Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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dave.kim wrote:the deal wrote:hisah wrote:@deal - Are you counting the waves... Wave 5 likely to test 3900 - 4000 around August - Sept 2012 then the cool off till 2013 after the elections. I wish you labelled those waves for the blind to see...I'm currently loading Insurance stocks...from PAI...JUB...CFCI....if you can't beat the market buy an insurance stock!!! And that wave 5 might be reaching point D of the ABCD correction on the 10 year chart.Once it hits 3800 i will be looking to get out of short term holdings If you look at the 5 Year chart you will see a W shaped pattern which points to 4000-4500...this could be one of the biggest bull runs to happen at the NSE....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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All I'm seeing is foreign investors moving the market while the fundamentals of the months ahead are looking horrible. Unemployment rate, inflation and interest rates are on the rise and to add to it we're in an election year. Foreign investors manipulate local investors to think that nse is picking up and make a profit of them before the true bear run begins. At the end of the day its a fools game. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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You empty talk,empty talk,domo domo and we have made 100% and exited. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Election year = higher money supply = higher inflation = higher interest rates = slow economic growth = slow nse performance
And who wrote this rule?? Higher money supply is the basis of this argument and yet I am personally not aware of any printing of money by CBK specifically for the general election so its not clear where the increase in money supply comes from in your rule.. We have a 1.4T election year budget and politicians also have their huge budgets for their election. Watch as it unfolds!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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@guru, kindly provide the nse20 indices for 92,97,02,07. jan and dec and we compare the trend. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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Election years are also the years of car, land and other high values frauds. But don't get me wrong my portfolio is doing great just like yours and the bull run will last a while but u cant fight the fundamentals. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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This market rally is great. it may enable me to sell shares i bought expensive and buy them later at a lower price. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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ChessMaster wrote:All I'm seeing is foreign investors moving the market while the fundamentals of the months ahead are looking horrible. Unemployment rate, inflation and interest rates are on the rise and to add to it we're in an election year. Foreign investors manipulate local investors to think that nse is picking up and make a profit of them before the true bear run begins. At the end of the day its a fools game. Sounds like you wrote this in November last year only for you to post today! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:@deal - Are you counting the waves... Wave 5 likely to test 3900 - 4000 around August - Sept 2012 then the cool off till 2013 after the elections. I wish you labelled those waves for the blind to see...I'm currently loading Insurance stocks...from PAI...JUB...CFCI....if you can't beat the market buy an insurance stock!!!
I can also spot your 5-yr observation. But to get beyond 4000 and test 4500 we need everyone in, not just foreigners. At the same time fundamentals must change overnight. How, I don't know... 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@Hisah the NSE and the Shilling never move in one direction...the Shilling can't go to 100 and the NSE still goes to 4500...at this point I throw away the charts and start listening to fundamentals....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:@Hisah the NSE and the Shilling never move in one direction...the Shilling can't go to 100 and the NSE still goes to 4500...at this point I throw away the charts and start listening to fundamentals.... That's why I'm not excited about the rally. Either NSE goes up or the USDKES, but not both. And since the latter is likely to move up harder than NSE, I chose to stay sidelined. The KE fundamentals are still smolding. And mixed with euroland circus, that's one spiky cocktail.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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In the meantime
NSE has breached the 3700 mark to stand at 3,708.88. Has gained in nine straight trading sessions!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Effective 1st June, KCB KE lowers base rate to 22% & KCB S&L (KE) to 19%. MPC meets in a fortnight. I doubt whether they will try such a stunt now that KES is already weakening
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:MPC meets in a fortnight. I doubt whether they will try such a stunt now that KES is already weakening If the shilling weakens above 95 with the CBR still @ 18% we will be in financial armagedon!!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Some of this South African cash is bound to find its way into Kenya soon http://www.dailytimes.co...m-ecobank-transnational
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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As you now appear to be on an NBK crusade, you are mandated to come up with a catch phrase for the said investnent ala KEKE! and LOAR! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Since it is another SA capital expectation...then Vuvuzela!!
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