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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Jamani
#561 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:23:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Personally I think they are taking a share swap, read between the lines on statements from KK attributed to the so called takeover... it mentions that the company needs this, employees are being told not to worry it will be good going, the minority shareholder is being told two things one the company will be more profitable and two we shall pay you a fair amount to leave as KK heads to canaan.... question is why dump me on the way?
Do you think for any reason that the majority shareholders are not going to canaan? or their canaan arrives with the buyout payment?
Listen to Segman speak and read statements coming out, they say everyone will be paid at the same price the majority shareholder is paid.... now think from this point... we are not privy to the discussion on price....what could prevent them from selling the company at 50, then stating that they agreed at 17/- or make them(minority) happy say 22/- manager their expectations by giving leads through the lead brokers that the fair value is 17 pay make-up of 5 and the minority will sing your praises.
ngapat
#562 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:28:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Jamani
#563 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:32:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
My thinking is that we will make money at 17 and above but we are being short changed..... mnyonge hana haki....
Jamani
#564 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:39:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
ngapat wrote:
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share


I have this thought also that this is the way to go, though i read that it will be a compulsory offer.... the meaning of this am yet to decode...
does it mean that minority shareholders will have no right to decide to stay in but take the offer or it only means that their offer will be final take and leave or leave it and stay?
mlennyma
#565 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:04:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
The most stupid act which i have hated,is the cma supporting the exploiters in suspending the share thus preventing the small share holders who usually exit at times like this making their kill.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Cde Monomotapa
#566 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:36:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mlennyma wrote:
The most stupid act which i have hated,is the cma supporting the exploiters in suspending the share thus preventing the small share holders who usually exit at times like this making their kill.

The wananchi are equally into impunity. Those are the CMA rules & regulations on M&A! smile
_Advisory
#567 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:09:03 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/24/2012
Posts: 12
Kenol Kobil Stakeholder Advisory
As per this statement Puma Energy intends to pursue a 100% take over.Stakeholder Advisory Release KenolKobil here j.mp/K52vaP #Puma Energy From Sarkozy to Puma Energy The Star j.mp/JcnDOO
earthvoice
#568 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:45:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
Abstracted from the KenolKobil Update - Cautionary Statement on Potential Take-over (issued by Kestrel Capital)

Potential deal size and expected take-over premium

Assuming Puma Energy will launch a Take-over bid for the entire shareholding of the company, the deal size could be more than USD 300m in absolute terms versus KenolKobil’s current market value of approximately USD 220m. Our expectation is that all shareholders of the company would be offered the same Take-over price on substantially the same terms. Our most recent fair value estimate on KenolKobil was KES 17.50, and consensus estimates are also around this level. Applying an estimated take-over premium of between 15-20% over fair market value for a controlling interest in the firm points to an offer price between KES 20.13- KES 21.00. This would imply a maximum exit P/E ratio of 9.5x and a P/B ratio of 2.7x, which in our view are unlikely to be achieved in the near-term assuming the status quo remains. We reckon that the stock has been historically undervalued, which could also affect the dynamics of setting the acquisition multiples. We also contend that KenolKobil has been undervalued relative to other sub-Saharan Oil and Gas players, and the acquisition multiples would also attempt to capture the hidden value in the company. Overall, from our preliminary analysis of the contemplated transaction, shareholders would benefit significantly, with an upside of between 61.0% and 68.0% to the current price if the transaction was to materialize.
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
selah
#569 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:50:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Jamani wrote:
ngapat wrote:
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share


I have this thought also that this is the way to go, though i read that it will be a compulsory offer.... the meaning of this am yet to decode...
does it mean that minority shareholders will have no right to decide to stay in but take the offer or it only means that their offer will be final take and leave or leave it and stay?


Do you want to say KK is worth 74B....I really doubt PUMA wuld fork all that cash.

My target is anything btwn 24-30 because looking at the assets alone, the company is worth about 46B...with a potential to grow the assets to double that in a few years.

What is troubling me is Why are the shares suspended by CMA for this long....it was a material announcement which I think a 1 or 2 days max could have been enough...I suspect KK is behind this suspension.They fear we wuld make alot more from speculation than from PUMA and that sickens me.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#570 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 10:14:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
As much as getting 50/- would be a few wet dreams... KK is not worth KES 75bn today.

- A 10% return would be KES 7.5bn which is 2x what KK made in the very profitable 2011.
- A (net) 15% hassle-free from T-Bonds or Banks on 75bn = KES 11.25bn which is 3x KK's 2011 profits.
- For KK to grow, it needs a lot of cash which is expensive [Base for KCB from 1 June 2012 is 22%] thus KK's internal growth (using debt) is risky with price controls.

I think based on Kestrel's Report, the payment will range from 20/- to 25/- but s/holders should not get carried away.

Also read this:
http://coldtusker.blogsp...enolkobil-takeover.html

What if Puma offers a swap for those who do not want to sell their shares for cash?
http://coldtusker.blogsp...could-puma-list-on.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
gatoho
#571 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 11:13:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 511
Location: kandara, Murang'a
ngapat wrote:
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share


Ditto, simply cos I buy shares as retirement not to trade
Foresight..
youcan'tstopusnow
#572 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 11:57:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
selah wrote:
I suspect KK is behind this suspension.They fear we wuld make alot more from speculation than from PUMA and that sickens me.

:-o
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#573 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 12:12:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
And if KK is delisting, why is Segman still relinquishing the Chairman's role? Ama atairudia baadaye. Hehe
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
accelriskconsult
#574 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 12:43:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
And if KK is delisting, why is Segman still relinquishing the Chairman's role? Ama atairudia baadaye. Hehe




An MD who chairs the board of the company he runs is a dangerous proposition to shareholders and an affront to good corporate governance.

The CMA dropped the ball big time in allowing his continued stay as chairman.

Puma know better and that is why he has to resign the chairmanship.
Aguytrying
#575 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 2:49:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Which company took 8 years? EAPI?

Did minority s/holders get dividends in those 8 years?
What is the 'new' buyout price vs the price offered 8 years ago?


Yes it was EAPI. Just found it. sinanga uongo, its easy for me to say "i dont know"smile

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#576 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 2:55:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Finally guys are catching on to the share swap idea. I wondered to myself.
" As a top shareholder, would i be fully compensated for KK future gains in monetary terms alone?"
My answer was "No". Unless the deal was too too good.
Segman maintaining one post is the biggest hints of this deal.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mozenrat
#577 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 3:18:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
BTW what would happen if a shareholder rejected PUMA's offer for his/her shares?
VituVingiSana
#578 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:11:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
accelriskconsult wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
And if KK is delisting, why is Segman still relinquishing the Chairman's role? Ama atairudia baadaye. Hehe


An MD who chairs the board of the company he runs is a dangerous proposition to shareholders and an affront to good corporate governance.

The CMA dropped the ball big time in allowing his continued stay as chairman.

Puma know better and that is why he has to resign the chairmanship.
It does not matter to Puma as a private firm but typically the major s/holder wants to keep an eye on things... If Puma does an IPO, then it will matter
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#579 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:21:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
what could prevent them from selling the company at 50, then stating that they agreed at 17/- or make them(minority) happy say 22/- manager their expectations by giving leads through the lead brokers that the fair value is 17 pay make-up of 5 and the minority will sing your praises.


This would be misrepresentation and fraud.. I doubt Puma directors would risk jail time and damaged reputations just to swindle KK minority holders..
I mean how does it benefit Puma if theyve already paid 50bob for 80% Of the shares to try and con the minority??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#580 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:36:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Jamani wrote:
what could prevent them from selling the company at 50, then stating that they agreed at 17/- or make them(minority) happy say 22/- manager their expectations by giving leads through the lead brokers that the fair value is 17 pay make-up of 5 and the minority will sing your praises.

This would be misrepresentation and fraud.. I doubt Puma directors would risk jail time and damaged reputations just to swindle KK minority holders..
I mean how does it benefit Puma if theyve already paid 50bob for 80% Of the shares to try and con the minority??
If Kestrel has indicated that it's Fair Value is between 20-22 then that's where the buy-out price will be!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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