Abstracted from the KenolKobil Update - Cautionary Statement on Potential Take-over (issued by Kestrel Capital)
Potential deal size and expected take-over premium Assuming Puma Energy will launch a Take-over bid for the entire shareholding of the company, the deal size could be more than USD 300m in absolute terms versus KenolKobil’s current market value of approximately USD 220m.
Our expectation is that all shareholders of the company would be offered the same Take-over price on substantially the same terms. Our most recent fair value estimate on KenolKobil was KES 17.50, and consensus estimates are also around this level. Applying an estimated take-over premium of between 15-20% over fair market value for a controlling interest in the firm
points to an offer price between KES 20.13- KES 21.00. This would imply a maximum exit P/E ratio of 9.5x and a P/B ratio of 2.7x, which in our view are
unlikely to be achieved in the near-term assuming the status quo remains. We reckon that
the stock has been historically undervalued, which could also affect the dynamics of setting the acquisition multiples. We also contend that
KenolKobil has been undervalued relative to other sub-Saharan Oil and Gas players, and the acquisition multiples would also attempt to capture the hidden value in the company. Overall, from our preliminary analysis of the contemplated transaction,
shareholders would benefit significantly, with an upside of between 61.0% and 68.0% to the current price if the transaction was to materialize.
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.