bamburi for a long hold

Interesting read. You are becoming a must read contributor on Wazua.
Looking at your ratings I would try and use your P/E/G ratio you made in your last post.
The addition of growth to the ratio can help to point at the how the market for the particular cement manufacturer is growing. I would also try to use a forward P/E to a retrospective P/E. It is much easier to look at a backward P/E but if you use the companies quater or half year results you will be able to determine the forward P/E and accurately determine if it is well priced.

I would and am stocking up on Athi river. ARM has always been priced at a high P/E. The reason ARM has been highly valued(Using a backward looking P/E) is great management and consistent growth.
I am not sure about other countries but I would think the GDP growth would help determine whether the manufacturers market is growing.

@hoover. Very good analysis. I recently was looking into Bamburi cement as an investment case and was very impressed. Its growth is sustainable as it slow(10-20%) unlike Athi river mining.Their seven year growth has also being consistent. The dividend yield is very good. They pay between 67-70% of EPS can you imagine! (data for last 7 years). This is a good yield.
The only thing i worry about Bamburi is the Market share. 7 years ago they had 64% of the market share, last year it has been trimmed down to 40%. The competition in Kenya is becoming very stiff. With ARM and National cement increasing capacity and my well over take Bamburi on capacity at this rate.
I worry about the slow growth, can anyone give some light on their expansion strategies, are my fears unfounded? Is the kenyan demand enough room for all the capacity that can be provided.
And to answer your question, Bamburi has a fully owned* subsidiary in Uganda. Hima cement. Whose capacity was recently increased by double i think

Also the current PE of 10.56 is low compared to historically. Factoring in peaceful elections i expect Bamburi to trade at a PE of 13-15. And a EPS of 17.8. Hence a price of 240-260. at Q2-Q1 2014.
The beauty is the stock is likely to trade at a low price as the elections near in march 2013, then correct by 2014(2 yrs from now).

ARM Q1 profit rises 17 pc as share hits highest level



It's also seeking a share split of five for every one ordinary share and a name change to ‘ARM Cement Limited’ at an annual general meeting scheduled for July 24.

Growth = ARM
Income (Dividend) = BAMBURI