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Safaricom FY 2012 results announcement
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muganda
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 09, 2012 6:19:13 PM
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Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
SCOM does its thing bright and early tomorrow. The big question - do you see the price trending UP or DOWN? Noting that Europe has a flu at the moment...

My prediction trending down, day after tomorrow.
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QW25091985
#2 Posted : Wednesday, May 09, 2012 7:08:41 PM
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Joined: 1/24/2012
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Location: In Da Hood
what . so soon . i have bought a bucket load of this thingy. so bob con me more better have done his homeworks and presents good results otherwise i'll beat him up untill he grows rasta on this head bob Marley would die for ! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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hisah
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 7:42:44 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Live video here - http://www.safaricom.co.ke/livestream via @alykhansatchu - https://twitter.com/#!/alykhansatchu

The chair says the full year fiscal results are good?!?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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muganda
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 7:45:51 AM
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Alright cold morning, waiting at... http://www.safaricom.co.ke/livestream

'A strong set of results, improved performance in a tough market, 19.1m customers, double-digit growth in revenues...growing revenues beyond voice (MPESA and broadband)... tough conditions USD/KES under pressure, high interest rate' blah blah ...waiting...
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muganda
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 7:53:43 AM
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Customers up 11%
Turnover 107b (13% up)
Voice 9% up
Non-voice contributing above one-third

Costs up 17%
EBITDA up 5%
Net income 12.63b (4% down)
10% increase in dividend at 0.22cents

Strong second half growth with 54% increase in EBITDA/Free Cash Flow
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hisah
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 7:56:49 AM
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Revenue 107 billion...
SMS & data - 1/3 of revenues
EBITDA - 5% up...
Dividends - 22cts (10% increase from 20cts)
net profit marginally down! 4% down - 12.63 billion?!? That's a major reversal from the H2 2011/2012...
Net profit in H1 - 4B and Net profit in H2 more than doubled H1... That's a major reversal!? 114.9%
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25091985
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 7:57:54 AM
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Location: In Da Hood
hisah wrote:
Revenue 107 billion...
SMS & data - 1/3 of revenues
EBITDA - 5% up...
Dividends - 22cts (10% increase from 20cts)
net profit marginally down! 4% down - 12.63 billion?!? That's a major reversal from the H2 2011/2012...
Net profit in H1 - 4B and Net profit in H2 more than doubled H1... That's a major reversal!?



HOLY shiit . i hope the thingy will rally ...
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QW25091985
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:01:24 AM
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Pheeeew. thats a relief ... atleast i didnt buy monkeys . but way has it been so silent and not rallying yet results are promising .
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hisah
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:04:38 AM
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CFO projects slow growth going forward. That's a dovish view...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#10 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:11:42 AM
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Session over. Just a few questions. I guess the H2 results are too shocking to digest. 114.9% reversal on net income is no small feat with the current liquidity squeeze courtesy of CBK CBR moves. I'm also trying to digest the same.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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muganda
#11 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:17:37 AM
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@hisah, well said. I think USD/KES contributed a bit, and perhaps the love at Christmas time which historically should be highest voice/MPESA month. Also nothing like a good shock half-year to get the company spending less - flat line in costs for second half.

So what say ye as to fair value?

hisah wrote:
Session over. Just a few questions. I guess the H2 results are too shocking to digest. 114.9% reversal on net income is no small feat with the current liquidity squeeze courtesy of CBK CBR moves. I'm also trying to digest the same.

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muganda
#12 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:20:34 AM
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The turnaround story:

http://www.safaricom.co.ke/file...Results_Presentation.pdf

and only fair to say the elephant has rightly reclaimed its mantle as most profitable company in Kenya.
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hisah
#13 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:21:18 AM
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muganda wrote:
@hisah, well said. I think USD/KES contributed just a bit and perhaps the love at Christmas time which historically should be highest voice month. So what say ye as to fair value?

hisah wrote:
Session over. Just a few questions. I guess the H2 results are too shocking to digest. 114.9% reversal on net income is no small feat with the current liquidity squeeze courtesy of CBK CBR moves. I'm also trying to digest the same.


Will have to go through the full report to see the green shots before coming up with projected estimates.

However if this elephant could rebound this big with tight liquidity and a vicious price war, one can only imagine how it would play out if those two factors are removed! I have underestimated their data revenues contribution, but now I think it is moving up. But I still wonder how they were able to keep the costs flat in H2... Still scratching me head... d'oh!

This results have smashed my dovish expectations. No wonder my 2.50 call was not obeyed and instead it went up to 3.50...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#14 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:44:30 AM
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So if mpesa bank is making so much with all the price wars and liquidity squeeze scenario, what will CCK now throw into the works? So where does that leave the competition? Incompetent regulator...! The lesser the interference the happier everyone will be. This will ensure that the weak competition strives to up their game rather than rely on lazy strategies.

Hii mtihani CCK wameanguka beyond being awarded a grade... They just need to repeat the whole bi-semester.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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McReggae
#15 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:46:49 AM
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5m data users and only 1% on unlimited, it was a wise business decision to scrap it!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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tuvok
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:48:49 AM
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Waiting to see how the market responds at 9am. Clearly the elephant in the room won't be ignored (pun intended).
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Jamani
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 8:55:04 AM
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hisah wrote:
So if mpesa bank is making so much with all the price wars and liquidity squeeze scenario, what will CCK now throw into the works? So where does that leave the competition? Incompetent regulator...! The lesser the interference the happier everyone will be. This will ensure that the weak competition strives to up their game rather than rely on lazy strategies.

Hii mtihani CCK wameanguka beyond being awarded a grade... They just need to repeat the whole bi-semester.



and as safcom puts it include a module with a case study of TZ UG interconnect... CCK sorry Wangusi should stop pampering these Mahabaratis
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hisah
#18 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 9:26:21 AM
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Was waiting for the foreign headlines to see how they want to play the market...

Kenyan Safaricom's FY revenue grows 13% - http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE84900420120510

So we are bidding the market...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25091985
#19 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 9:39:29 AM
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Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
QW25091985 wrote:
what . so soon . i have bought a bucket load of this thingy. so bob con me more better have done his homeworks and presents good results otherwise i'll beat him up untill he grows rasta on this head bob Marley would die for ! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



and the thingy is off the stables .HUGE DEMAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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hisah
#20 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2012 9:49:50 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25091985 wrote:
QW25091985 wrote:
what . so soon . i have bought a bucket load of this thingy. so bob con me more better have done his homeworks and presents good results otherwise i'll beat him up untill he grows rasta on this head bob Marley would die for ! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



and the thingy is off the stables .HUGE DEMAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

SCOM Buyers for 8,791,400 at 3.35 Total Sellers 144,100 Live Feed #Nairobi Securities Exchange http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Conclusions

Strong H2. EPS H2 0.22 versus 0.10 H1 +120%
M-Pesa remains the Jewel and the Menu Reprice happened at the end of the Reporting Period.
The Dividend increase is a Muscular Move.
They Have beaten the Street estimates.

Says @alykhansatchu...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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