Interesting blog post despite the rosy picture your painting of agricultural stocks there are several negatives.
Unreliable weather which will is now becoming reliably unreliable. All this stocks were hit by the drought and were devalued prior to your time frame where you state "41.8% gain during the same time frame" Link.

Your post also looks at book value as a measure of the company. The problem with agricultural stock is how they value their agricultural asset. The value fluctuates so much and simply said I cant trust the figures. Maybe it because i rely on my high school account but biological assets are accounted for in an unclear manner.

Finally is the lack of liquidity in the agricultural stocks (Mumias doesn't fall into this category despite you classifying it as such)The value is therefore not easily influenced with market sentiments. I thik this is actually the main reason.

Anyway welcome to posting on Wazua!

Mumias is primarily an agro-processor. It's nucleus estate is relatively small & supplies a small portion of their cane for crushing.

This may change if TARDA takes off.

From what I know, there have been some legal hurdles that have held it back which have been settled. The project will need debt, internal & equity finance. The investment case IMO is that it will be under irrigation so it'll be all year round, Tana River area is in the coastal region thus, higher temps will ensure shorter maturity periods with higher sucrose content. Ofcourse the value chain will surely be replicated i.e co-gen, ethanol e.t.c but in a larger scale than at MSC currently. Implementation dates are key probably a further mention in the up coming FY to June results.

@hooverrl look at the BIGGER PICTURE and you will see why. This may come as a shock yes i know, but Kenyan agricultural companies are just COLONIAL FARMS with feudal lords in Britain.

The controlling companies are British the directors are British and the market is British. The only thing that is kenyan is the SOIL and the LABOR.

Let me explain.

Pre and post independence the british farmers owned the farms in the so called white islands. The listed agricultural farms are just the tip of the iceberg. There are hundreds of others.

At independence most of the farmers just relocated to England and constituted themselves into companies in Kenya and in UK. This is why the controlling shareholding is so tightly held and the disclosures are so poor.

So the farm is in kenya but the owner is in the UK. The market for the farm produce is also in the UK so what to do? Transfer the profits to the UK in form of management fees royalties and interest on loans. Just google TRANSFER PRICING and see...

Dont forget the 50bob (Shs450million) divi by WTK after selling Williamson House... All the proceeds are currently sitting in a UK bank...